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Prospectus Hit List for October 3



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for September 30
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's the final countdown. Dun dun.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

103

58

107.8

115.1

113.3

.679

.674

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The curse is over! Kyle Hendricks won the ERA title! (A witch cursed Kyle Hendricks at 8 years old saying he would never do this.)
2

93

69

99.0

102.9

103.1

.614

.619

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

What's David Ortiz going to do once he's retired? Probably just sit around, with about four or five trips to the mailbox each day.
3

95

67

97.3

100.4

98.4

.603

.599

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It seems nearly impossible that, in this postseason, Matt Williams will pull Jordan Zimmermann for Drew Storen, especially given that all three are out of the organization. Still, though, nothing's impossible.
4

94

67

91.0

93.3

90.7

.573

.578

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Pretty ironic that the Indians are going into the postseason with more pitchers falling by the wayside like Spinal Tap drummers, yet the drummer they've had in the outfield has been healthy as a mule for years.
5

89

73

90.8

93.7

94.2

.567

.572

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

6.7%

5.4%

For all those who said J.A. Happ would finish the season with twice as many wins as Marcus Stroman, pick up your prize at the door, Mrs. Happ.
6

91

71

90.5

95.8

95.9

.576

.571

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

For Vin Scully's 67 years, the Dodgers fell short of their goal of 67 disabled list trips. Time to dole out a few charlie horses before the playoffs.
7

87

75

90.3

93.2

93.1

.561

.556

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

14.5%

44.4%

It would be nice to have the World Series winner be a mystery, so just remember: in the Hebrew calendar it's the year 5777. Suck on that, Bay Area Gregorian calendar huggers!
8

86

76

87.9

90.8

89.9

.547

.542

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-14.5%

-60.6%

A postseason without the Cardinals? Could this much happiness be possible?
9

86

75

83.5

87.5

86.1

.533

.538

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-12.9%

-26.5%

The Tigers were looking at four games in four days in four cities to get to the ALDS. The gauntlet of games felt like any of us seeing the remote control on the other side of the room, so taking the L on the first game was really the smart way to go. There's always baseball next year.
10

86

76

87.3

85.5

84.3

.530

.534

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-9.8%

Now it's been 15 years since the Mariners reached the playoffs. Let this be a lesson, kids: never win 116 regular season games.
11

87

75

87.1

87.3

86.7

.537

.532

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

16.3%

If they make the NLDS, it's not entirely clear how the rotation will be set, but if you need some ideas: Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard have 58 combined career wins. Bartolo Colon has 59 career wins since turning 40.
12

89

73

84.0

82.9

85.0

.526

.531

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

6.3%

35.7%

Will Zach Britton’s 0.54 ERA over 67 innings be enough for the Cy Young? Or will teammate Donnie Hart and his 0.49 ERA in a quarter the number of innings yoink it from his grubby little hands?
13

95

67

81.8

79.9

79.1

.518

.523

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sam Dyson's goal this postseason: make at least one friend. And if time, close out Game 7 of the World Series and ban bat flips.
14

84

78

83.4

82.5

82.0

.512

.517

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-4.8%

David Ortiz got his, and Vin Scully got his too, but Tal's Hill never got the sendoff it deserved: a first pitch by Lance Berkman, who then runs to center field and catches it on a belly flop.
15

84

78

78.6

81.0

84.1

.506

.511

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The 2016 Yankees didn’t make the playoffs because they just had 84 wins, finishing in fourth place in the division, which is one more than the Cardinals had 10 years ago when they won the World Series. Should’ve kept Andrew Miller.
16

78

84

77.9

76.8

77.1

.478

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since I'm stepping down from the Hit List, I won't have a chance to do this next year, so ... more like Guaranteed Joke Field!
17

79

82

77.5

77.8

77.7

.484

.479

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Destin Hood hit his first career home run yesterday. He hit it over the wall far enough so that the outfielder had no chance to be robbin' Hood.
18

75

87

79.6

79.4

78.1

.482

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Man, once the Rockies realize the point of the game is to reach what's called "World Series" and not just get as many 40-homer guys as you can in a year, you're gonna see some changes. Until then, at least they seem happy.
19

68

94

76.6

78.6

81.2

.470

.475

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Most losses by a pitcher with at least 10 K/9:
Chris Archer 19
Nolan Ryan 18
Nolan Ryan 16
Nolan Ryan 16
Nolan Ryan 16
Nolan Ryan 16
20

78

83

78.0

74.5

74.8

.472

.467

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

It says here the NL Wild Card game is going to be Mets-Giants. So do the Pirates just show up and play both teams, or do they play just the fourth and fifth inning, or how does this work?
21

81

81

77.0

69.3

70.3

.459

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Is this the end of the Royals' magical run? Well, it's not our place to say, but the computers are overheating with laughter.
22

74

88

79.9

70.5

71.9

.457

.462

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mike Scioscia nearly died on the Simpsons, but as long as the Simpsons is on TV, Mike Scioscia in real life cannot be fired. It's in the contract.
23

73

89

74.4

71.5

71.5

.448

.443

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They weren't good, but they sure were fast. The 2016 Milwaukee Brewers, and every ex-husband joke ever!
24

69

93

69.5

69.1

69.8

.428

.433

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yeah, but if you go by WAR ... yep, still a fecal typhoon of a season.
25

68

93

66.9

71.6

71.6

.432

.427

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Turner Field closed its doors having never won a World Series, which means Dale Murphy will begin using it as his summer cottage.
26

69

93

67.9

68.2

70.0

.424

.419

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

No pitchers were harmed in the making of this 2016 Diamondbacks season. Although several ERAs were irreparably damaged.
27

68

94

72.2

64.5

65.2

.417

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

He did it. Ryan Schimpf finished the season with 20 home runs and 18 singles. Only he, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds (minimum 200 PA) can say they did that. Which means, of course, that Ryan Schimpf is not going to be a Hall of Famer.
28

59

103

64.9

67.4

68.2

.401

.405

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

All that young talent may end up being a hellbeast of a baseball team in a couple years, not unlike the Cubs, but I'm sorry it's not going to be the same type of brutal loss for the opponent if Nick Punto isn't batting somewhere in the lineup.
29

68

94

67.4

60.5

61.6

.397

.393

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bryan Price is coming back as manager because they had such a great second half. Although maybe they should get a separate first-half manager like golfing legend Greg Norman, or perhaps former presidential hopeful Howard Dean.
30

71

91

61.4

60.9

60.9

.392

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Phillies front office has to do some serious thinking this offseason, namely should they pick up Ryan Howard's $23 million option.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
Taldan9

Schimpf!*


*Disclosure:Comment author is President of the Schimpf Fan Club Chapter in Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada

Oct 04, 2016 06:58 AM
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Shaun P.

Matt (and Matt), thank you both for another fabulous Hit List season. It has been a pleasure reading you guys, again, and seeing who can make me laugh more. Matt S, if this was your last Hit List, you went out in style.

Oct 04, 2016 20:36 PM
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