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Prospectus Hit List for July 25



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for July 22
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Gadzooks, it's a Monday Hit List!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

59

38

64.2

68.0

66.3

.616

.611

95.9%

3.2%

99.1%

0.9%

0.4%

Joe Nathan became the third oldest pitcher to return from Tommy John surgery, the oldest to undergo his second, and is three years older than hitting coach Eric Hinske.
2

56

41

57.4

57.5

56.4

.579

.584

93.8%

2.4%

96.2%

0.0%

-0.5%

Substance or fluff, even the whiff of a rumor about Cleveland trying to acquire the Yankees' closer would make the writers of Major League fall out of their beanbags.
3

58

41

61.5

64.8

64.1

.589

.584

83.6%

11.8%

95.4%

-2.0%

-2.3%

The Nationals lost a tie game in the ninth by giving up four runs. Working theory: Storen's ghost.
4

56

44

57.2

63.1

63.0

.585

.580

55.7%

33.2%

88.9%

3.8%

7.6%

It doesn't look like Clayton Kershaw isn't going to be rejoining the team anytime soon, which means his injury has worsened or he really did a number on the team equipment.
5

55

41

56.0

58.7

58.8

.563

.568

47.7%

33.1%

80.8%

0.4%

5.1%

If the Red Sox can just acquire eight more starting pitchers (four of them will catch mono) they should have a decent enough rotation for the stretch run.
6

55

44

57.5

58.6

58.9

.554

.559

26.0%

42.6%

68.6%

1.3%

-1.3%

If you would have told me that, at this point in the season, Marcus Stroman's strikeout rate would be extremely comparable to R.A. Dickey's, I'd have said, cool, Stroman learned a knuckleball from some kindly Duke co-eds.
7

54

44

55.3

53.9

52.5

.552

.557

33.7%

27.5%

61.2%

5.8%

8.1%

Jose Altuve has a .335 batting average over the last three seasons, 19 points above anyone else. It's not often you get to say he's way above everyone else.
8

52

46

58.6

60.8

60.3

.553

.548

3.5%

38.2%

41.7%

-7.1%

5.4%

Mike Mayers didn't make it out of the second inning in his major league debut, but it's still the second best debut by someone with his name, just behind Mike Myers in Wayne's World.
9

58

40

55.0

55.5

54.9

.542

.537

44.2%

38.4%

82.5%

-3.5%

-8.5%

If you're looking at the Giants and wondering where the oddball player is that comes out of nowhere to help the team in September, keep in mind that Kyle Drabek was signed to a minor league deal last week.
10

50

47

53.4

51.9

51.5

.528

.533

12.0%

13.6%

25.7%

-7.5%

4.3%

Nelson Cruz is one of 11 players with at least four career seven-RBI games, joining Hall of Famers, A-Rod, Dave Kingman and Garrett Anderson.
11

52

45

50.7

52.0

52.1

.535

.530

10.8%

37.2%

48.0%

6.8%

-2.8%

Mike Piazza has the fourth highest GIDP rate among all Hall of Famers, and his facial hair resembled that of a swashbuckling antagonist. He probably deserved to get in for other reasons, though.
12

57

40

52.6

50.2

50.1

.505

.510

24.4%

39.4%

63.8%

4.4%

4.1%

The Orioles are on pace to hit five triples for the season, which would break the previous record low of 11, set by themselves in 1998.
13

50

48

46.3

47.6

48.1

.502

.507

1.9%

5.6%

7.5%

1.1%

1.7%

The Yankees haven't traded a closer since the '70s, so they are a bit rusty and have several questions. What do you ask for? Do you still need to initiate the call from a telephone booth? Whatever happened to the Bee Gees?
14

50

48

48.3

50.4

50.0

.502

.507

4.1%

11.1%

15.2%

-10.1%

-6.7%

The Tigers played ten innings yesterday and lost twice on walkoff singles so the bullpen is getting extremely efficient at this.
15

57

42

49.9

46.7

47.4

.499

.504

54.1%

19.1%

73.2%

4.0%

-8.0%

Two part question: (1) what ridiculous amount of money will Ian Desmond earn in the offseason, and (1a) how much more or less does he get if he promises to wear a "DESMOND 22" jersey?
16

53

45

49.6

51.8

51.3

.506

.501

5.6%

25.0%

30.6%

-1.6%

1.9%

Andre Dawson played 121 games for the Marlins. Mike Piazza played five. So if you want to make it to Cooperstown, just try to get on the Marlins for a day.
17

48

50

46.3

45.3

45.5

.490

.495

1.5%

2.8%

4.2%

1.8%

-3.6%

♬ Cut his shirt into pieces
♬ Chris Sale was a bad sport...
18

38

60

42.7

45.7

46.8

.486

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

The Rays netted nine total baserunners in a 13-inning loss on Friday, which to the Rays hitters shall forever be known as The Night I Knew I Should Have Gone To Law School.
19

51

47

48.7

45.8

46.6

.494

.489

0.6%

12.2%

12.8%

2.5%

-1.6%

The Pirates lost yet another pitcher, this time Tyler Glasnow, to the disabled list, but what the doctors don't understand is that pegleg is a perfectly normal condition for a pirate.
20

47

51

48.5

49.4

48.1

.478

.473

0.1%

0.7%

0.9%

0.3%

0.3%

Roald Dahl wrote about a magical factory where all your dreams come true, including a room where you basically float into the air. David Dahl was called up and will play in a stadium that is basically the same thing.
21

48

49

44.6

44.1

45.3

.460

.465

0.6%

2.7%

3.3%

-1.2%

-3.3%

It took three years to get a bad split on the Royals bullpen, but here it finally is: Kansas City's bullpen is 29th in WHIP and ERA this month.
22

43

55

47.8

42.1

42.4

.454

.459

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.0%

Tim Lincecum tied his shortest start of his career (1 1/3 innings) but it's not so bad when you realize statistically you get shorter as you age.
23

41

57

41.5

42.4

43.7

.456

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

If you think Shelby Miller's value has gone down now that he is on the trading block again, let me remind you that he was just a pitcher before joining Arizona and now he's a pitcher/outfielder.
24

45

54

41.9

40.5

40.2

.446

.451

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

Some might say Yonder Alonso is struggling, but an optimist might say he is simply auditioning for a Korean baseball team's job in 2017.
25

37

61

41.0

42.1

42.0

.446

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Miguel Sano was seen kissing the baseball he fielded before throwing it to make the final out in a win. Good to see they still teach fielding fundamentals in Minnesota.
26

41

55

40.7

38.6

38.8

.440

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

It makes sense for the Brewers to deal Jonathan Lucroy if the acquiring team is willing to give up, say, three Jonathan Lucroys of their own.
27

43

56

44.5

40.1

41.2

.438

.433

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

You might wonder why Edwin Jackson is back in a rotation for the first time in 2014, but then he goes 3-for-5 in two games and it all makes sense: the Padres are desperate.
28

45

55

39.2

38.5

38.6

.418

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Zach Eflin threw his second complete game of the season, the first Phillie to do that since 2013 when ... wait, it says here Kyle Kendrick did this. Someone needs to fact check the baseball statas.
29

38

60

35.4

30.1

30.6

.392

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ken Griffey, Jr. stands in front of a Hall of Fame crowd and puts his hat on backwards. "Wow," he says, "they were right -- old people definitely do not look good in this."
30

33

66

34.4

37.1

37.9

.387

.382

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

So far this year the Braves have enjoyed a six-game winning streak and a four-game winning streak, and no other streaks longer than two.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
pandroid

Was the Halloween Mike Myers joke too obvious?

Jul 25, 2016 08:48 AM
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