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Prospectus Hit List for July 1



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 27
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

A new month, a new hit list. Wait, no. A new Friday, a new Hit List. That's better!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

51

27

56.5

58.9

58.3

.645

.640

98.9%

1.0%

99.9%

0.0%

0.2%

The Cubs starting staff consists of a former Oriole, a former Red Sox, a former Ray, a former Angel, and an ex-Rangers draft pick. Theo Epstein is like Omar and the American League are like the kids on the doorsteps.
2

48

30

49.0

48.9

48.0

.594

.599

92.8%

4.4%

97.2%

0.3%

6.6%

LeBron James comes back, the Cavs win the championship, and now the Indians have won 13 in a row. Cleveland, any minute now you’re going to wake up naked in math class without having studied.
3

48

32

50.2

53.1

52.5

.594

.590

88.9%

8.1%

97.0%

-0.1%

4.7%

The day the Nationals play without Bryce Harper, they score 13 runs. That’s like bringing a knife to a gun fight but then discovering your opponent has brought a shoelace.
4

44

37

45.3

49.0

48.6

.577

.572

37.0%

44.9%

81.9%

3.8%

0.1%

Clayton Kershaw is on the DL, so he can’t throw eight shutout innings. Maybe seven shutout innings. Not eight though. That’d be ridiculous.
5

42

36

45.0

47.5

48.1

.555

.560

33.9%

24.1%

58.0%

0.3%

-13.2%

A fan in a David Price jersey steps out of the tunnel to view Fenway for the first time. In awe, he trips over his feet, falls forward, smashes his face on the seats in front of him, and spills beer all over everyone everywhere. Didn’t give up a homer though so that’s progress.
6

40

38

46.2

48.6

49.1

.551

.546

1.0%

45.0%

46.0%

-2.7%

-2.7%

How do you lose to Chris Young who walked six in four innings? Opposing him with Mike Leake is a good start!
7

50

31

46.8

46.7

46.0

.549

.544

62.4%

29.2%

91.6%

2.8%

-0.4%

Last night the Giants gave up the DH to let Madison Bumgarner hit. Today the tour continues as they give up outfielders to let Lou Seal roam free as nature intended.
8

42

37

42.2

42.0

41.4

.538

.543

12.8%

35.0%

47.8%

-2.1%

8.8%

Have you ever looked up from your work, looked out the window, and saw a crazy person staring back at you? That’s probably how the Rangers feel right now.
9

43

38

44.1

44.7

45.3

.538

.543

22.9%

23.4%

46.3%

-5.9%

-8.8%

Could the Blue Jays re-sign Edwin Encarnacion? Canadian parrots everywhere hope so!
10

40

38

43.3

41.4

41.1

.528

.533

7.3%

22.9%

30.2%

3.4%

0.0%

In one month, beginning on May 27, the Mariners went from 1.5 games up in the AL West to 11.5 games down. That’s an Exxon Valdez level of seamanship.
11

51

29

45.6

41.2

41.3

.528

.533

79.9%

12.9%

92.8%

-0.5%

1.3%

There’s at least verbal symmetry in losing on a walk-off walk, but a walk-off passed ball has nothing. I guess you can spell out WOPB but that just sounds like a radio station you don’t listen to.
12

41

37

39.6

40.6

39.4

.531

.526

8.4%

39.4%

47.7%

3.6%

-4.6%

The Mets are having trouble scoring but perhaps DFA’ing Yoenis Cespedes in order to trade for him once he signs with another team wasn’t the answer.
13

47

31

44.2

42.0

41.9

.517

.522

38.4%

21.1%

59.5%

-5.2%

20.4%

Last season the Mariners tried to assemble a lineup made up of DHs. It didn’t work. So this season the Orioles are trying it. It’s working! So last night the Orioles played the Mariners. And lost! I don’t understand baseball.
14

40

38

38.9

40.4

39.9

.503

.508

1.9%

16.3%

18.2%

2.7%

-5.7%

The Tigers scored eight runs in the ninth on six singles, two walks, and a double. In that order. If only they’d been down 20 they might have worked up to a homer.
15

40

39

38.5

37.5

38.1

.500

.505

2.6%

14.9%

17.5%

3.1%

1.5%

And now a Tim Anderson Will Walk Eventually update sponsored by Grapes. They’re small and delicious. After 86 straight plate appearances without walking, Tim Anderson walked. This has been a Tim Anderson Will Walk Eventually update sponsored by Grapes. They’re small and delicious.
16

33

45

35.0

38.1

39.5

.499

.504

0.7%

1.4%

2.1%

-0.7%

-6.0%

The Rays pen gave up eight runs in the ninth inning to lose before tearing off their jerseys to reveal Cincinnati Reds uniforms and running off laughing into the night.
17

39

39

35.7

36.7

36.7

.493

.498

4.1%

5.4%

9.4%

2.6%

-1.8%

The Yankees might make the playoffs and LOOK OVER THERE [pulls quarter from your ear] Ta-DA!
18

41

38

39.2

40.3

40.5

.494

.489

2.7%

19.1%

21.8%

-5.5%

-1.2%

The Marlins acquired Fernando Rodney, seemingly without regard for the fact that spinning dolphins are allergic to arrows.
19

38

41

38.1

37.1

37.8

.490

.485

0.1%

8.4%

8.5%

-0.4%

5.0%

Will the Pirates trade Andrew McCutchen? The Earth will crash into the Sun eventually so whatever sure why not.
20

42

36

37.7

38.0

39.0

.480

.485

2.7%

17.9%

20.6%

2.4%

-2.7%

Now without Omar Infante the Royals don’t have anyone named after a giant baby. They do have Yordano Ventura though so I guess that niche was already filled.
21

37

41

38.6

40.4

40.3

.479

.474

0.4%

3.2%

3.6%

-0.5%

0.5%

If the Rockies trade CarGo then he’d be CarGone thanks don’t forget to tip your waitress!
22

36

45

37.2

37.8

39.5

.473

.468

0.2%

1.2%

1.4%

-0.1%

-1.5%

If the Diamondbacks could go back to last off-season and do it all over again, they would, but this time they’d get an extra side of ranch with that Bloom’n Onion.
23

35

44

34.2

31.7

31.1

.441

.446

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.2%

0.0%

Headed to the DL, Sean Doolittle stepped on and broke Sonny Gray’s toe, tripped and fell into Josh Reddick’s knee, then landing in front of Danny Valencia whereupon he spontaneously combusted. A’s Baseball: catch the fever!
24

32

47

34.4

32.3

32.5

.436

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.4%

Andrew Heaney will get Tommy John surgery after all because, via the official statement, "We, the Angels, need another kick to the crotch to… wait, kicks to the crotch are bad. We meant kick to the butt. Those are good. [runs away] STOP THE SURGERY!” Weird official statement.
25

35

43

33.0

31.4

30.3

.442

.437

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.8%

-0.1%

Don’t you love games where a team, in this case the Brewers, needs six pitchers to lose 8-1? Couldn’t they lose 8-1 with five pitchers, or, novel idea, three?
26

33

46

33.9

30.8

30.9

.433

.428

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

The Padres are reportedly shopping the part of Jon Jay that isn’t broken. They hope to get three quarters of a decent prospect in return, or if they have to pay Jay’s salary, half a prospect. No word yet on which half.
27

25

53

28.0

29.3

29.1

.417

.422

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At 25-53 we’ve reached the point of the season where you could reverse the digits in the Twins wins column and they’d still have a losing record.
28

35

45

29.5

27.7

28.2

.398

.394

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.0%

0.1%

Look, Phillies, if you really want to win, you’re going to have to overpay for relievers. It’s all the rage. The big kids are doing it. Prospects are yesterday’s news.
29

27

52

27.9

30.4

31.4

.394

.390

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now, having traded Bud Norris, the Braves can finally rise up and rule the universe! Or, you know, beat the Marlins.
30

29

51

27.1

22.6

23.2

.380

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Faced with protecting a one run lead, Bryan Price opted to build a moat around the pitcher’s mound. In defending his decision, Price said, “Sure, it took hours and ultimately led to a forfeit but have you seen our bullpen?”

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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