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Prospectus Hit List for September 30



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 26
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's Hit List time! Yes, it's Hit. List. Tiiiiiiime.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

101

57

106.0

113.0

111.5

.680

.675

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I want my final Cubs comment to note this fact: Jason Heywardís OPS+ is 69.
2

92

67

97.4

101.8

101.8

.618

.623

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In his last game in Yankee Stadium, David Ortiz walked and struck out. It was a bit anticlimactic, but then David Ortiz has never been known for performing in the clutch.
3

93

66

95.7

99.0

97.0

.605

.600

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Without Wilson Ramos for the rest of the season, the Nationals must decide to play with a bad catcher or have their pitchers throw the ball extra fast so it will bounce off the backstop and back to them. You know which choice Iím rooting for!
4

91

68

90.6

96.7

96.7

.590

.585

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sure they could put Julio Urias in the playoff rotation, but isnít it quicker to just get the surgery?
5

91

67

88.5

90.5

88.0

.567

.571

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Perhaps the Indians' best strategy is to disguise their pitchers as second basemen until the playoffs start. That way if someone shows up with a ball-peen hammer looking for a pitcher just say, ďNobody here but us second basemen!Ē
6

87

72

89.3

91.6

91.9

.566

.571

0.0%

76.7%

76.7%

-13.5%

0.3%

The Blue Jays arenít backing into the playoffs so much as actively trying to miss them. Itís almost as if someone has written ďPlayoffsĒ on a baseball and thrown it down the middle of the plate at 87 mph.
7

84

75

87.1

89.3

89.0

.549

.544

0.0%

73.0%

73.0%

4.4%

3.2%

Remember that time Johnny Cueto took the entire Giants team on his back and they weighed so much he ruptured a disk and missed the playoffs? Memories!
8

85

73

81.9

85.8

84.5

.533

.538

0.0%

26.8%

26.8%

-5.9%

-31.1%

The game was rained out last night which definitely wasnít the Tigers bullpen turning on the sprinklers at 2am no not at all.
9

85

74

85.6

83.8

82.8

.530

.535

0.0%

14.2%

14.2%

3.3%

2.9%

The Mariners could still make the playoffs! Or they could give up this foolís errand and just buy tickets like the rest of us.
10

83

76

84.9

87.6

86.9

.539

.534

0.0%

30.6%

30.6%

-2.7%

-26.6%

The Cardinals win last night was the equivalent of two burglars breaking into your house, taking your stuff, then coming back in and jumping up and down while yelling and dumping Gatorade on each other, then leaving.
11

85

74

85.3

85.7

85.4

.537

.532

0.0%

96.5%

96.5%

-1.8%

23.9%

The Mets face a tough choice in the wild card game: should they start Steve Foodovich, Phil Stumpington, or Yerben Gordsnicher?
12

87

72

81.9

80.9

83.0

.523

.528

0.0%

82.3%

82.3%

16.2%

51.3%

If you bet on Ubaldo Jimenez throwing 6.1 innings of one-hit ball, congratulations you win! However, if you would have bet on that, you had no money to bet on it.
13

94

65

80.6

78.2

77.4

.519

.524

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carlos Gomez was terrible then he joined the Rangers. Heís probably still terrible but his shirt says Rangers so his hitting stats are fantastic you know how that goes.
14

83

76

83.0

81.3

80.9

.516

.521

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-20.7%

The Astros have been eliminated which is going to make it pretty difficult for them to win the World Series this year. Still, canít give up! Gotta keep trying!
15

83

76

77.8

80.1

83.2

.509

.514

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-2.7%

On the day the Yankees were eliminated from making the playoffs, David Ortiz was there yet nobody mooned him. New York, I donít even know you anymore.
16

77

82

76.9

75.4

76.0

.480

.485

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Will he stay on as manager or will Robin Ventura elsewhere?
17

78

80

76.1

76.2

75.8

.484

.479

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

Giancarlo Stantonís 27 homers are the same as last season, but his slugging percentage fell 117 points because he played 44 more games. Next seasonís plan: get injured sooner!
18

74

85

78.1

77.7

76.6

.482

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Reportedly the Rockies havenít discussed extending Nolan Arenado though what player would want to stick around for that?
19

78

80

78.0

74.6

74.8

.481

.476

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Last nightís game against the Cubs officially ended in a tie, which is honestly far more memorable than such a game has any right to claim.
20

66

93

74.8

77.3

79.8

.468

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chris Archer did not lose his 20th game, meaning Mike Maroth's family flew all the way to Chicago for nothing.
21

81

78

76.5

69.1

69.8

.466

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Good news: With the Royals out of the playoffs, theyíll have more time to sell jeans.
22

72

87

77.4

68.8

70.2

.453

.458

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Angels are considering moving to a new stadium. Makes sense because the Los Angeles Angels Formerly Of Anaheim Now Of Riverdale will fit smartly on a uniform shirt.
23

71

88

72.9

70.2

70.2

.447

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

On the downside, trading Ryan Braun would mean they donít have Ryan Braun anymore, but on the plus side, trading Ryan Braun would mean they donít have Ryan Braun anymore. So itís a trade-off.
24

67

92

68.2

67.9

68.4

.427

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The silver lining of the Aís missing the playoffs is now they have more time to improve their baseball hitting and pitching algorithms.
25

66

92

65.6

70.4

70.3

.431

.426

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Congratulations to Freddie Freeman on the least noticed 30-game hitting streak of all time!
26

68

91

71.5

63.5

64.4

.420

.415

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tough times for Padres fans. I guess grab an internationally renowned beer, go back to the world-class beach, and try to figure out why you put up with it all.
27

66

93

65.7

66.2

68.4

.419

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Diamondbacks three off-season needs are: 1) be less Diamondbacksy, 2) do fewer Diamondbacks things, and 3) donít Diamondbacks
28

57

102

63.0

65.8

66.6

.397

.402

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Have we reached the point where when Twins fans chant ďGo Twins!Ē they arenít cheering them on so much as asking them to leave?
29

67

92

66.3

59.5

60.1

.398

.393

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Reds learned last night that challenges have to be immediate, a word MLB apparently thinks means to stand on the steps of the dugout for five minutes picking your nose with one hand and holding the entire game up with the other until someone somewhere watches something on tv and tells you what to do. So tough luck, Reds!
30

70

89

60.2

59.6

59.5

.392

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Perhaps the Phillies should consider re-signing Ryan Howard. Theyíll need someone to flail helplessly at breaking pitches next season. Wait, they donít need that? What? Are you sure?

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
jonsieg

Assuming this is the last hit list of the season - if so, thanks for a long year of entertainment. Always enjoy reading the comments.

Let's go mets...

Sep 30, 2016 11:34 AM
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joudens

I salute another terrific season of hit lists. Always well done.

Sep 30, 2016 13:48 PM
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