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Prospectus Hit List for July 9



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 7
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Hit List is in midseason form! Took friggin' long enough, guys.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

57

33

60.5

58.7

58.8

.653

.671

73.2%

26.3%

99.5%

0.3%

1.5%

Oh great. Billy Beane wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal about how great he is (I assume; I didn’t actually read it).
2

52

37

51.7

55.6

55.2

.603

.622

24.7%

71.6%

96.3%

-0.7%

2.8%

Remember how we were all excited about Albert Pujols’ resurgence? Well it’s totally still happening but be so kind as to put on this blindfold before looking at any baseball websites, thanks.
3

49

41

52.6

50.6

49.6

.561

.580

2.1%

45.5%

47.6%

-7.5%

-5.6%

There’s no shame in losing to Phil Hughes. At least not when you start Chris Young. – Hit List comments from last year that haven’t held up well
4

49

37

46.4

48.3

47.3

.555

.575

82.0%

5.5%

87.5%

2.8%

-2.5%

If you ignore the inning where he gave up five runs Justin Verlander was pretty good and if you’re the Tigers and owe Verlander $28 million over each of the next five seasons, you should probably ignore that inning.
5

49

40

47.6

47.2

46.6

.535

.555

42.9%

9.9%

52.9%

3.4%

20.9%

A league-leading 87 twin killings for the Orioles? Hey authorities, [points] they’re right there!
6

48

44

48.9

47.8

48.2

.524

.544

33.6%

7.7%

41.3%

5.0%

-13.9%

Jose Reyes went 4-for-5, R.A. Dickey threw seven scoreless and the price of maple syrup went through the roof. Rats. So close to the greatest day in Canada ever.
7

51

41

52.0

52.0

50.1

.557

.538

68.9%

20.9%

89.7%

-1.8%

-1.4%

That the Dodgers have a .752 OPS when swinging at the first pitch and a .728 OPS after taking the first pitch is the kind of information they’re probably better off not knowing.
8

48

40

50.2

49.1

48.9

.557

.538

65.9%

13.1%

79.0%

1.7%

1.4%

Stephen Strasburg is such a big stupid baby that he has the seventh best FIP of any starting big stupid baby in baseball.
9

46

43

46.4

42.8

44.1

.504

.524

9.8%

13.1%

22.9%

-2.1%

3.8%

The Royals are a vargasian 10-9 in games started by Jason Vagas.
10

49

42

47.8

50.3

50.2

.542

.522

37.2%

24.8%

62.1%

5.4%

11.6%

All-Star Pat Neshek means, who knows, next season could bring All-Star Nick Greenwood! The possibilities are endless!
11

52

39

48.5

47.7

47.2

.537

.517

36.9%

30.5%

67.4%

-1.7%

-13.0%

The Lyle Overbay: MLB first baseman is still happening so you know where to place the blame when it all goes down.
12

49

41

47.6

48.5

47.8

.532

.512

31.0%

37.1%

68.1%

-2.1%

-12.3%

Sure they lost to the crosstown A’s but how can you stay mad at a guy named Sonny Gray? Oh, you! /pinches cheeks
13

42

51

42.9

48.1

48.4

.488

.508

3.7%

1.3%

5.1%

1.3%

1.2%

Jeremy Hellickson came back and won but oh no his groundball rate [clutches pearls]!
14

44

45

43.1

42.6

42.9

.485

.505

6.1%

9.4%

15.6%

2.3%

1.5%

Carlos Santana has 59 walks and 58 hits. He also has 57 stuffed animals but that seems inconsequential here.
15

48

42

47.8

46.2

46.3

.523

.503

17.3%

26.3%

43.6%

6.2%

8.3%

Johnny Cueto, who gave up three homers in June, gave up two yesterday, but they were to Chris Coghlan and Ryan Sweeney so you can give him a pass.
16

47

43

44.6

47.3

48.1

.519

.499

8.4%

19.8%

28.2%

-3.6%

5.9%

With Polanco, Marte, and McCutchen, the top of the Pirates order is starting to look scary to the rest of the league. Sadly the bottom part still looks Pirates to the rest of the league.
17

49

41

45.7

45.8

45.9

.518

.498

32.0%

23.7%

55.7%

-6.1%

-1.2%

Dan Uggla remains on the roster because A) he makes a really sweet soufflé, B) he goes around putting everyone’s sodas on coasters and without him there would be unsightly stains on the coffee tables, or C) they forgot about him.
18

45

44

41.0

40.1

41.3

.470

.490

19.1%

5.9%

25.0%

-4.5%

-0.9%

Masahiro Tanaka’s half-run rise in ERA over his last four starts has lead to speculation he’s off the (apple) juice.
19

44

47

43.3

41.5

41.8

.468

.488

1.6%

2.4%

4.0%

0.8%

1.8%

The White Sox had 12 hits, six of which were doubles. Teams aren’t just beating Boston anymore, now they’re beating Boston with symmetrical panache.
20

40

49

40.7

41.8

41.5

.461

.481

0.4%

0.7%

1.1%

0.1%

-3.3%

How good is Phil Hughes? Good enough to overcome Kurt Suzuki batting third.
21

39

51

38.8

40.7

41.0

.443

.463

0.7%

0.5%

1.2%

-1.2%

-6.8%

I win wherever I go, thinks Jonny Gomes. He reads a tweet: “The Red Sox are 29-35 with Gomes in the lineup.” I lose less than you might expect wherever I go, thinks Jonny Gomes. He smiles.
22

44

46

44.7

42.9

42.3

.483

.463

1.2%

2.2%

3.4%

1.4%

1.5%

Warning: This comment is not about Giancarlo Stanton. Did you know Marcell Ozuna is hitting .279/.326/.467 with 15 homers? It’s true. He’s a center fielder!
23

41

49

45.3

43.3

43.1

.480

.460

0.8%

1.0%

1.8%

1.0%

0.3%

The Mets won their 4,000th game as a franchise, which just shows how true the old adage about showing up being 90 percent of the battle is.
24

38

51

42.0

43.5

43.3

.469

.449

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

-0.2%

-0.2%

You want proof the Cubs aren’t trying to win? Their first two pitchers yesterday were Travis Wood and Brian Schlitter. That’s a Mr. Show sketch.
25

38

54

37.7

39.7

42.2

.428

.448

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

George Springer and Chris Carter went a combined 0-5 when not homering yesterday. Fortunately for the Astros they also went 3-for-3 when homering.
26

38

53

41.7

43.3

41.5

.448

.428

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.3%

Harold Reynolds suggested the Rockies deal the presumptive NL MVP for salary relief because presumably the money could be better spent on losing.
27

38

52

36.3

34.2

35.6

.400

.419

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.5%

Adrian Beltre hit his first triple of the season, his first since 2012, and his third since 2010. Adrian Beltre thinks triples rub his head.
28

39

51

39.1

37.8

38.4

.429

.409

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.1%

-0.3%

Ruben Amaro has threatened change should the team keep performing badly, so expect Grady Sizemore up from Triple-A and Ryan Howard to bat exclusively against left-handers any day now.
29

38

54

39.1

39.5

39.3

.423

.404

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

You know what the Diamondbacks give little kids at Halloween? Tommy John Surgery.
30

40

50

38.8

36.0

35.9

.418

.399

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.2%

-0.0%

“When running around the bases, you want to go which way… anyone? Anyone?” – Bud Black’s pre-game pep talk/pop quiz

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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