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Prospectus Hit List for May 31



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for May 27
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Errbody knows: Tuesday Hit Lists get crazy.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

35

14

37.8

39.3

38.9

.674

.669

94.4%

4.9%

99.2%

0.3%

1.2%

The Cubs threw seven perfect innings of relief yesterday, so technically this sentence counts as a jinx for tonight's bullpen performance.
2

31

20

32.5

33.1

32.6

.583

.588

63.5%

20.0%

83.5%

3.3%

2.9%

Blake Swihart getting reps in Boston's left field means he could either be on a career trajectory of no defensive value, or a championship racquetball player.
3

31

21

32.1

33.4

34.0

.587

.582

52.2%

32.2%

84.4%

3.1%

3.0%

Eventually Daniel Murphy has to come back down to ... oh, he has a jet pack under his uniform! Sneaky.
4

27

25

29.5

33.0

32.1

.581

.576

51.6%

20.1%

71.7%

-1.7%

6.4%

Julio Urias struggling in his debut spared us all (or deprived us, rather) from a slew of "Uriasity Killed The Mets" headlines.
5

29

21

30.7

30.6

28.5

.562

.567

61.0%

13.5%

74.6%

2.5%

-3.8%

I would have told you, prior to the season, that the Mariners would have the third best run differential in baseball at the end of May if baseball contracted all but like four teams. And even then, show your work.
6

29

21

27.8

28.9

27.8

.566

.562

45.5%

35.3%

80.8%

3.4%

-4.4%

Matt Harvey is fixed! All it took was a single performance against a team reeling after some bad losses, so if he can just face that team every five days, we're set.
7

26

23

27.6

26.9

26.8

.554

.559

58.3%

15.8%

74.1%

-3.4%

2.6%

Ryan Merritt made his major league debut and threw four innings of relief, allowing just one hit. Do you guys think they should give him some kind of badge for that?
8

27

25

30.5

32.0

32.5

.546

.541

2.0%

28.8%

30.8%

1.0%

-5.2%

The Cardinals probably won't get their punishment for having an employee access the Astros' scouting database before the June draft, but how the media got this information might surprise you.
9

32

21

28.6

29.1

28.5

.540

.535

45.2%

21.5%

66.7%

-3.3%

2.5%

"Hey guys, you gave me tickets to the wrong plane ... again!" Jake Peavy jovially told his teammates as he just barely made the flight on time.
10

22

27

24.5

27.2

27.6

.528

.533

7.7%

18.7%

26.4%

-3.6%

-13.0%

The Rays gave up one hit on Sunday and still lost. To make matters worse, that hit was "Mambo #5."
11

27

25

28.3

28.3

27.4

.527

.532

23.7%

19.9%

43.5%

-2.6%

-20.7%

It is unreasonable to fire a manager after a catastrophic weekend, but oh man if that was ever going to happen, Robin Ventura would be the first.
12

27

26

27.1

28.3

29.1

.524

.529

13.9%

26.5%

40.4%

-0.7%

12.0%

Drew Storen recorded a save in the one game played yesterday where it wasn't Memorial Day. Nobody's sure what this means, but to be safe it's best to not use Storen on the Canadian Memorial Day.
13

29

21

28.6

27.6

27.0

.533

.528

3.7%

39.6%

43.3%

5.5%

11.4%

Jeff Locke threw the Pirates' first complete game in almost two years. So much has changed. Now there's political gridlock in Washington and everybody on the Internet is mad about something.
14

28

21

25.8

25.7

25.3

.505

.510

9.2%

18.7%

28.0%

-0.6%

-6.3%

Hyun-soo Kim hit his first North American home run and the contract was a good idea, just like we all thought. [erases all baseball words from March]
15

23

29

23.3

24.4

24.7

.502

.507

12.0%

13.9%

25.9%

2.7%

11.3%

Collin McHugh is the first pitcher this season to throw a nine-inning complete game and allow at least three earned runs, which means that Collin McHugh may have been Livan Hernandez in disguise.
16

30

21

27.7

24.2

24.1

.497

.502

23.7%

18.7%

42.4%

3.0%

14.7%

Ian Desmond is the first Ian in history to play center field. Between him and former Ranger Ian Kinsler's resurgence, this has been a banner year for Ians, of which there have been extremely few.
17

24

26

22.6

22.5

23.3

.487

.492

5.7%

10.8%

16.5%

-3.2%

-1.4%

Luis Severino was sent down to the minors, presumably to work on his Ned Flanders impression.
18

24

26

23.3

24.3

23.5

.485

.490

7.5%

8.0%

15.5%

-1.3%

-5.2%

Working theory on why Anibal Sanchez can't go deep into games: his parents always began to argue during the sixth inning.
19

28

22

25.2

24.1

23.6

.482

.487

10.5%

11.4%

21.9%

3.6%

9.9%

If this rookie kid Six Freaking Runs keeps showing up in the ninth, Wade Davis might get demoted back to setup man.
20

26

25

23.8

25.6

25.9

.484

.479

2.0%

9.4%

11.4%

-4.8%

-3.9%

Three years ago today the Marlins were 13-41. This is a reminder that a team will be bad when Justin Ruggiano is second on the team in home runs and Derek Dietrich is third.
21

23

27

22.9

24.2

25.3

.472

.467

1.7%

3.0%

4.7%

-0.8%

-3.8%

DEVELOPING: Colorado may have a really good pitcher on their team. Could be solar flares. Could be highlights of Jason Jennings. More as this develops.
22

23

30

23.6

24.3

25.4

.469

.464

1.4%

1.6%

3.0%

-0.3%

-4.7%

The Diamondbacks do not have a pitcher in the top 60 leaderboard for ERA or WHIP, but if you ask me what their problem is, it's most certainly the uniforms.
23

23

28

23.7

21.1

21.7

.450

.454

1.6%

2.1%

3.7%

0.8%

-1.5%

Having Jhoulys Chacin in your rotation is about as comfortable as having "JHOULYS" in your Scrabble hand.
24

23

29

20.9

19.7

20.4

.438

.443

1.6%

1.8%

3.4%

-0.3%

-1.4%

If Rich Hill throws six perfect games before the trade deadline, the A's plan to get Josh Donaldson back will finally be complete.
25

23

28

21.9

20.1

18.9

.439

.434

0.0%

1.3%

1.3%

-1.2%

0.1%

Remember when Ryan Braun was a toxic asset with a long-term contract who berated a urine delivery person after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs? The point is, accept the first dang offer you get for him, David Stearns.
26

26

25

20.2

21.0

20.6

.427

.423

0.3%

2.0%

2.3%

-1.2%

-1.9%

Ryan Howard is tied for the team lead in home runs but is not only fifth on the team in total bases, he has fewer bases than strikeouts.
27

15

35

17.3

17.1

17.3

.411

.416

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.2%

0.1%

Byron Buxton is on both the MLB All-Star ballot and the Triple-A All-Star ballot, so if you ever wanted to vote for chaos...
28

20

32

21.3

17.9

18.5

.419

.414

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

-0.1%

-0.7%

It looks like those Padres alternate uniforms became rather popular, because the rest of the league wore hats in honor of them yesterday.
29

15

35

16.9

17.6

18.8

.384

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

With this being the 25th anniversary of the Twins-Braves World Series, it stands to reason that Jack Morris could throw 10 shutout against this team as well.
30

17

34

16.4

12.8

13.9

.370

.365

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Lost in that story about the zookeepers shooting the gorilla that was dragging around that child? For once, the bullpen was not the ones being second guessed.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
ChicagoOriole

Considering that you can spell "lousy" with "Jhoulys," you are right, they are just the same amount of fun.

May 31, 2016 06:56 AM
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