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Prospectus Hit List for July 17



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for July 13 Hit List for July 20
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you rebuild. (SPOILER ALERT!)

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

64

29

64.6

65.7

65.3

.698

.694

99.5%

0.5%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

TYWIN LANNISTER - Ruthless, effective, deep-pocketed and always keeping one eye on the future. Great at winning battles, not so good at establishing dynasties.
2

62

30

61.7

63.6

62.8

.680

.684

99.8%

0.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

JON SNOW - Felled for making questionable decisions, but successfully revived. Natural leaders. Gets on a lot of covers, but we keep hearing about a bittersweet ending ...
3

55

36

55.7

58.0

55.8

.617

.612

98.9%

0.5%

99.4%

0.7%

1.8%

OLENNA REDWYNE (TYRELL) - Careful planning and deft investments have led to perennial position of power. Lots of stars, but not a very deep supporting cast. The bullpen is the sept.
4

47

43

54.8

57.8

57.0

.602

.606

26.6%

43.3%

69.9%

4.1%

2.7%

JAIME LANNISTER - No longer so arrogant, getting easier to root for, but not entirely reformed and still very, very rich. Jeter was the right hand. Weird relationship with sister team.
5

53

39

55.6

54.7

53.7

.590

.585

0.4%

83.2%

83.6%

-3.7%

-9.2%

ARYA STARK - Spunky, talented up-and-comer thatís found success despite unorthodox methods. Things looked pretty bleak rather recently. Still kinda worried theyíll get killed.
6

47

43

51.7

55.5

54.4

.579

.584

84.8%

4.9%

89.6%

-1.6%

-5.2%

DAENERYS TARGARYEN - Naturally talented, inventive and willing to use flamethrowers to great effect. But kind of boring until they get closer to the endgame.
7

52

41

53.2

51.5

50.6

.557

.562

59.3%

28.8%

88.1%

1.2%

1.3%

STANNIS BARATHEON - Believes the throne is theirs by right. Very competent in the field, but tends to abandon good plans when times get tough. Travis Shaw is Shireen.
8

49

44

48.4

51.5

51.3

.538

.543

13.4%

38.1%

51.5%

-5.5%

0.2%

SANDOR CLEGANE - Left for dead but still here fighting. Not overly concerned with character flaws. Really crappy formative years.
9

46

45

47.1

50.0

49.8

.530

.525

46.3%

12.2%

58.5%

8.1%

18.4%

ROBB STARK - Started to let guard down once things were going really well. Traded long-term leverage for immediate gain. Might not be the hero after all. Should never play at the Twins.
10

52

42

51.6

47.9

46.9

.528

.523

40.2%

12.6%

52.8%

-8.2%

-2.1%

TYRION LANNISTER - No one expected them to be in a position of power. Good at getting the most out of the people around them. Still destined to play second fiddle to the powers that be.
11

53

41

50.2

47.4

47.3

.526

.521

0.1%

71.3%

71.5%

7.7%

-4.4%

MARGAERY TYRELL - Talented, fun to watch and mostly content to fly under the radar. That being said, might have picked the wrong time to try and move up in the world.
12

44

47

46.9

47.5

48.3

.513

.508

9.6%

6.0%

15.7%

-4.3%

-4.8%

MELISANDRE OF ASHAII - Uses devil magic to get whatís desired. Has bizarre following of devoted fanatics. Recently invested in some false prophets.
13

45

46

48.6

43.8

44.3

.499

.504

0.1%

27.1%

27.2%

-3.8%

0.2%

ROOSE BOLTON - Shrewd moves and power-hungry youngsters led to quick ascensions. Absolutely terrible at holding leads. Best shot at crown already come and gone.
14

46

47

46.5

46.4

46.6

.499

.504

0.1%

20.6%

20.7%

2.8%

6.4%

LITTLEFINGER - Involved in every transaction but not really any closer to the throne. Haunted by past failures. Chaos isnít a pit. Chaos is a starting rotation.
15

41

49

42.5

43.5

42.8

.472

.477

1.9%

3.2%

5.1%

0.5%

0.6%

JORAH MORMONT - Force to be reckoned with at peak. Still some talent, but turning into a sad hanger-on. Never got what they wanted. Both feature rapidly deteriorating arms.
16

45

45

42.1

40.1

41.6

.469

.474

7.0%

8.5%

15.6%

4.1%

-2.0%

ROBERT BARATHEON - Much better at becoming the king than at being the king. Quite the sight to behold in their day. PECOTA is the boar.
17

41

49

42.2

43.6

44.7

.476

.471

0.5%

2.7%

3.2%

-1.2%

-2.9%

LORAS TYRELL - Plenty of star power, but ultimately pretty shallow. Keeps getting put under questionable leadership.
18

46

49

44.8

42.4

44.1

.466

.471

0.0%

4.9%

4.9%

0.8%

-2.0%

THEON GREYJOY - Overextended themselves for stuff they didnít need, suffered through some rough years, lost their Favorite Toy for a while but are on the path toward redemption.
19

45

45

41.7

41.4

40.0

.467

.462

0.4%

5.1%

5.5%

1.3%

3.1%

BRAN STARK - Good long-term vision. Painful to watch during middle of redemption arc. Potential reincarnation of a former ruler with their name. Not a big threat on the bases.
20

44

48

43.3

42.0

42.3

.466

.461

3.8%

2.6%

6.4%

1.4%

0.6%

VARYS - Always involved in rumors and a consistent under-the-radar threat. Some strange decisions make it unclear what their true goals are. Good at rebuilding.
21

42

50

38.3

42.4

44.6

.455

.460

0.0%

5.2%

5.2%

1.3%

2.9%

SAMWELL TARLY - Largely exists to help other parties reach their goals. Often credited for being smarter than they are. Great uniforms, though.
22

46

45

39.2

38.5

38.5

.446

.450

6.1%

10.7%

16.8%

-2.2%

-0.1%

ASHA (YARA) GREYJOY - Ambitious contender, fun to root for, intent on making smart deals. Just might lack the resources to get the job done.
23

38

52

41.4

40.6

40.3

.445

.450

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

-0.1%

-0.3%

RHAEGAR TARGARYEN - Rhaegar rebuilt valiantly, Rhaegar rebuilt nobly, Rhaegar rebuilt bravely. And Rhaegar died.
24

41

48

40.7

39.5

39.8

.452

.447

0.3%

3.1%

3.3%

-1.6%

0.1%

CERSEI LANNISTER - Hungry for the throne but utterly unable to lead or manage young assets. Good for the occasional dazzling display of power. Weird relationship with brother team.
25

42

49

38.3

39.2

39.9

.438

.443

0.6%

3.3%

3.9%

-1.0%

-2.4%

NED STARK - Wears heart on sleeve. Fostered lots of young talent. Doesnít learn from past mistakes. Tends to run into trouble when fighting in the south.
26

39

52

40.1

40.2

40.7

.440

.435

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.2%

-0.6%

BRIENNE OF TARTH - Trying to do it the right way, but often in the wrong place at the wrong time. Plenty of power, but people donít take them seriously. Poor at run(ning away) prevention.
27

42

49

36.4

33.7

35.6

.406

.411

0.0%

1.1%

1.1%

-0.5%

-2.3%

OBERYN MARTELL - Once dazzled with displays of combat prowess, but couldnít finish the job when they were primed to do so. Neither used Zach Britton last October.
28

40

51

32.6

35.0

36.3

.396

.391

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

CATELYN STARK - Victims of both circumstance and their own stupid decisions. Let too many talented assets go. Did raise a very strong farm system. Should never play at the Twins.
29

30

60

35.2

34.0

34.6

.372

.367

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

ALLISER THORNE - They fought. They lost. Now they rest.
30

35

58

35.5

33.5

33.8

.370

.366

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

SANSA STARK - Former royalty fallen on tough times. Tends to put faith in the wrong powerful allies. Honestly not that fun to root for. Has better luck during even years/seasons.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here


6 comments have been left for this article.
DDriesen

Wow, that was awesome.

Jul 17, 2017 06:23 AM
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+3

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tearecrules

Cubs, Mariners, and White Sox are some inspired remarks.

Jul 17, 2017 06:41 AM
up_image

+2

down_image
 
AndersonAdams1

This is my favorite Hit List ever.

Jul 17, 2017 07:09 AM
up_image

+7

down_image
 
mmurdock64

bravo

Jul 17, 2017 08:19 AM
up_image

+2

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Lougle

This was amazing

Jul 17, 2017 11:32 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
stephenbawesome

I really want to see the sausage-waving gif of Ramsay Bolton with Mike Trout 'shopped over the sausage.

It's crazy that you were able to come up with generally three solid jokes per comparison while still being true to the character and the team. I can't decide if it shows a better understanding of A Song of Ice and Fire or Major League Baseball, but it's great.

I'm here trying to think of a Pablo Sandoval - Manderly joke and I'm just whiffing. Kudos to you for the thoughtful and enjoyable article.

Jul 17, 2017 13:12 PM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
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