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Prospectus Hit List for July 13



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for July 10 Hit List for July 17
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

We'll never forgive the Marlins for their Dinger Machine negligence.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

61

29

62.1

62.9

62.6

.691

.686

98.2%

1.8%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You know the look your dog gives you when he knows he’s been a not great boy? That’s the look the Dodgers are giving Rob Manfred after his 10-day DL comments.
2

60

29

59.7

61.7

60.9

.681

.685

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Astros have the Athletics’ first half in the second half they’d still probably make the playoffs.
3

45

41

52.4

55.2

54.4

.602

.606

26.4%

41.1%

67.5%

0.5%

-6.4%

My favorite part of the Home Run Derby was when Aaron Judge crushed Justin Bour’s skull in his hands as Ellaria Sand looked on, horrified.
4

47

40

51.3

54.9

53.8

.595

.600

90.9%

4.3%

95.2%

0.2%

5.0%

Brad Mills brought a Terry Francona cut-out to the All-Star Game. The Boston Globe described the cut-out as “uninspiring” and “two-dimensional.”
5

53

36

55.1

54.0

53.0

.604

.599

1.5%

91.9%

93.4%

0.6%

-1.8%

It must be tough for Paul Goldschmidt, what with every up-and-coming first base prospect being labeled The Next Paul Goldschmidt.
6

52

36

52.6

55.0

52.8

.604

.599

97.3%

0.7%

98.0%

0.3%

-0.6%

A+ cleats, a 29% probability catch, a hit off Chris Sale and the best hair on the planet. Not a bad All-Star Game for Mr. Harper.
7

50

39

51.3

50.0

48.8

.562

.567

58.9%

27.8%

86.7%

-0.5%

-3.6%

Dave Dombrowski said the Red Sox won’t look to add starting pitching help at the deadline, so consider them the front-runners for Sonny Gray and/or Jose Quintana.
8

47

43

46.6

49.9

49.9

.537

.542

13.2%

38.2%

51.4%

0.7%

13.3%

In earning Futures Game MVP honors, Brent Honeywell proved he’s exactly the type of talented young arm the Rays love to squander.
9

52

39

49.7

46.5

46.6

.535

.530

0.3%

75.9%

76.2%

0.5%

-1.2%

The Rockies are off to their best start in franchise history and are still 9.5 games behind the Dodgers, so that says quite a bit about Rockies franchise history.
10

50

41

50.0

46.4

45.8

.528

.523

46.4%

6.8%

53.2%

0.1%

12.0%

Travis Shaw hit .299/.367/.570 in the first half. He’s the most successful Brewer from Boston since the guy who started Sam Adams.
11

43

45

45.4

46.4

47.4

.517

.512

16.4%

5.2%

21.5%

-0.3%

7.1%

Did you see that Nelson Cruz/Joe West picture? Yadier Molina truly is amazing at framing.
12

43

45

44.0

46.8

46.9

.513

.508

32.1%

7.5%

39.6%

-1.1%

-19.0%

The Cubs playing the “no one believed in us” card when they’re 10 games over .500 by August 15th is gonna be miserable.
13

43

45

46.9

42.3

42.8

.497

.502

0.0%

26.2%

26.2%

0.8%

5.1%

The Rangers realllllllly need bullpen help. Look for top prospects like Lewis Brinson to get moved at the deadline in order to bolster the ... oh. Oh no.
14

43

47

44.6

44.4

44.8

.491

.496

0.0%

13.5%

13.5%

-0.9%

-0.6%

You’ve got to be impressed with what Robinson Cano did in the All-Star Game. I mean, a Mariners player not getting injured ... can you believe it?
15

41

46

41.6

43.4

43.8

.488

.483

1.7%

4.6%

6.2%

0.4%

2.5%

What the hell is the point of having a giant dinger machine if you don’t turn it on during the Home Run Derby????
16

44

43

40.8

38.6

40.3

.470

.475

3.8%

12.4%

16.2%

-0.9%

-8.8%

Sal Perez is to exhibition games what Kenny McCormick is to South Park.
17

45

47

43.6

41.0

42.4

.467

.472

0.0%

7.8%

7.8%

0.3%

-1.8%

Congrats to Mike Trout on being responsible for the second-most-anticipated return to television this week.
18

39

48

40.4

40.8

40.5

.462

.467

1.0%

3.0%

3.9%

-0.4%

-0.3%

Apparently Michael Fulmer works as a plumber in the offseason. I wonder what he thinks about all that sewage in Detroit’s bullpen.
19

38

49

40.3

39.7

39.4

.452

.457

0.2%

0.8%

1.1%

0.3%

-0.5%

One imagines the White Sox will bump “The Graduation Song” by Vitamin C throughout their clubhouse between now and Jul 31.
20

42

47

41.8

40.1

40.3

.462

.457

4.5%

1.4%

5.9%

-0.2%

1.9%

“J-Hay, baseball magnet, can’t explain HBPs,” says Pirates.com. Lose the magnet, idiot.
21

45

43

38.1

37.4

37.3

.449

.454

4.1%

13.7%

17.8%

-0.3%

-2.7%

“Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are so big,” you exclaim while Miguel Sano is off to the side fighting Godzilla and Mothra at the same time.
22

41

47

37.4

38.9

39.8

.446

.451

1.0%

5.4%

6.4%

-0.7%

0.4%

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette rocketing up our prospect rankings it’s nice to see that nepotism is still a viable path to success in this world.
23

39

49

40.3

40.2

40.4

.454

.449

0.6%

0.1%

0.8%

-0.0%

0.4%

Joey Votto’s “levels of choking up” explainer makes no sense. Why do you have to choke up to walk?
24

42

45

39.2

39.2

37.4

.453

.448

0.4%

1.5%

1.9%

-0.4%

-0.2%

“For Inciarte, All-Star Game was toast to 1st half” reads the Braves.com headline with a very firm grasp on what the All-Star Game is for.
25

39

50

35.8

39.9

42.0

.440

.445

0.0%

2.5%

2.5%

0.5%

-0.1%

Yonder Alonso is so locked in right now he even stole a base in the All-Star Game. Joe Girardi is gonna love this guy.
26

39

47

38.3

37.3

37.4

.442

.437

0.6%

2.5%

3.2%

0.1%

-1.2%

How many days away are we from people interpreting Amed Rosario saying he’s “100% ready” for the majors as a sign he’s a malcontent? I’ll say five.
27

42

46

36.4

33.7

35.7

.420

.425

0.5%

3.2%

3.7%

0.5%

1.0%

There are 40-year-old gas grills with more effective starters than the Orioles. They entered the break with the worst team ERA (5.07) in baseball, and the second-worst (5.75) among SP.
28

38

50

30.5

33.0

34.6

.387

.382

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Death, taxes and the Padres shipping off a good reliever who’ll only be mediocre for his new team at the trade deadline. You can’t fight fate, Brad Hand.
29

34

56

34.8

32.3

32.8

.372

.367

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

Everyone keeps saying Madison Bumgarner has made his last rehab start but he’s slated to take on the Padres on Saturday, so ...
30

29

58

33.8

32.5

32.9

.368

.364

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A truly productive break for the Phillies. When was the last time this team went four-plus days in between losses?

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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1 comment has been left for this article.
mhmckay

Add Fernando Tatis Jr. to the nepotism list!

Jul 13, 2017 09:02 AM
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