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Prospectus Hit List for July 10



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for July 6 Hit List for July 13
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Suddenly there's a race at the top and at the bottom.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

61

29

62.1

62.9

62.6

.691

.686

98.1%

1.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The last time a veteran flashed that type of talent in Dodgers Stadium “Mannywood” was in full swing.
2

60

29

59.7

61.7

60.9

.681

.685

99.9%

0.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

We’re like two weeks away from the Astros yelling “O’Doyle Rules” before bludgeoning every mediocre opponent they face.
3

45

41

52.4

55.2

54.4

.602

.606

26.7%

40.5%

67.2%

-5.7%

-9.2%

Anonymous Yankees Insider Calls Bird Chicken.
4

47

40

51.3

54.9

53.8

.595

.600

90.7%

4.1%

94.8%

-0.0%

1.0%

Jason Kipnis truly is Terry Francona’s new Dustin Pedroia, right down to the recurring leg injuries.
5

53

36

55.1

54.0

53.0

.604

.599

1.7%

91.1%

92.8%

-0.7%

-3.4%

There’s not giving it your all in the final game before the break, and then there’s getting shut down by Homer Bailey. Yikes.
6

52

36

52.6

55.0

52.8

.604

.599

96.8%

0.8%

97.6%

0.1%

0.3%

It took until July 7 for the Nationals to get shut out this season. For comparison’s sake, it took until May 24 for the Padres to score a run.
7

50

39

51.3

50.0

48.8

.562

.567

58.9%

27.9%

86.8%

-2.5%

0.1%

Congrats to David Price on out-dueling Chris Archer in the Battle of Pitchers Who Hate David Ortiz.
8

47

43

46.6

49.9

49.9

.537

.542

13.2%

38.1%

51.4%

9.7%

14.8%

You know who doesn’t care that Joe Kelly Has Great Stuff? Brad Miller doesn’t care that Joe Kelly Has Great Stuff.
9

52

39

49.7

46.5

46.6

.535

.530

0.3%

75.6%

75.9%

2.5%

0.2%

I don’t know what Game Score would’ve said, but if Kyle Freeland had truly managed to throw a no-hitter in Coors it would’ve been the most impressive start in history in my book.
10

50

41

50.0

46.4

45.8

.528

.523

48.0%

6.9%

55.0%

4.7%

25.6%

Ryan Braun has the leg resiliency of an AT-AT.
11

43

45

45.4

46.4

47.4

.517

.512

14.7%

5.7%

20.4%

4.3%

-1.5%

Does Paul DeJong turning into Prime Chase Utley against the Mets indicate that Cardinals Devil Magic is back, or does more of the credit just go to the Mets Metsing?
12

43

45

44.0

46.8

46.9

.513

.508

32.3%

7.8%

40.1%

-11.3%

-21.0%

From can’t throw to first to can’t get out of the first: the inspiring tale of Jon Lester’s first half.
13

43

45

46.9

42.3

42.8

.497

.502

0.1%

26.9%

26.9%

-1.6%

2.7%

Putting that mustache on Cole Hamels is like putting ketchup on a filet mignon. What a waste.
14

43

47

44.6

44.4

44.8

.491

.496

0.0%

14.3%

14.3%

3.6%

-9.1%

Smart of Mike Hampton to resign. It was only going to be so long before the Mariners Pitchers Curse got to the Bullpen Coach.
15

41

46

41.6

43.4

43.8

.488

.483

1.7%

4.3%

6.1%

1.1%

2.8%

A bunch of stars who probably *won’t* be traded soon in Miami. How strange.
16

44

43

40.8

38.6

40.3

.470

.475

4.6%

13.0%

17.6%

-0.9%

5.1%

Careful, Bill Miller. Historically speaking, upsetting Cains is a dicey proposition.
17

45

47

43.6

41.0

42.3

.467

.472

0.0%

6.9%

6.9%

1.9%

-3.8%

From Garrett Richards’ right bicep to Matt Shoemaker’s right forearm and more, injured Angels starters have had more setbacks than the Empire State Building.
18

39

48

40.4

40.8

40.5

.462

.467

1.0%

3.4%

4.5%

1.7%

-0.5%

Congrats to Victor Martinez on his 2,000th career hit, or as Jose Altuve would call it, a pretty good season’s worth of hits.
19

38

49

40.3

39.7

39.4

.452

.457

0.1%

0.6%

0.6%

-0.8%

-1.0%

“Starting pitching is not close to being good enough,” Don Cooper told MLB.com. That sort of succinct analysis is why he’s known as a pitching guru.
20

42

47

41.8

40.1

40.3

.462

.457

4.4%

1.3%

5.7%

0.8%

1.9%

The last time Pirates ravaged Bears like they did yesterday House Mormont was almost driven to extinction.
21

45

43

38.1

37.4

37.3

.449

.454

3.6%

13.3%

16.9%

-3.4%

-0.2%

If the Twins had called up Zack Granite last season they truly would’ve been at rock bottom.
22

41

47

37.4

38.9

39.8

.446

.451

0.8%

5.5%

6.3%

-3.0%

2.4%

RIP in peace to the Blue Jays Franchise, 4/7/1977-7/9/2017. Also RIP to the phrase “it only counts as one loss.”
23

39

49

40.3

40.2

40.4

.454

.449

0.6%

0.2%

0.8%

0.0%

0.3%

“DeSclafani ‘seeing the light’ in elbow rehab” reads the Reds.com headline that sorta makes it sound like DeSclafani is dying?
24

42

45

39.2

39.2

37.4

.453

.448

0.6%

1.9%

2.5%

-0.4%

-0.9%

Julio Teheran drove in three runs and held the Nats scoreless for seven innings in Washington on Saturday. He’s Babe Ruth away from SunTrust Park and the modern day Bartolo Colon at home.
25

39

50

35.8

39.9

42.0

.440

.445

0.0%

2.4%

2.4%

-0.3%

0.3%

Bob Melvin became the third manager in A’s history to reach 500 wins with the club. Unfortunately it took him like 15 years to get there.
26

39

47

38.3

37.3

37.4

.442

.437

0.9%

2.3%

3.2%

-1.1%

-4.2%

The most surprising thing about Brandon Nimmo’s collapsed lung is that Terry Collins didn’t ask him to pitch seven innings once he learned about the injury.
27

42

46

36.4

33.7

35.7

.420

.425

0.4%

3.1%

3.5%

1.3%

-2.3%

Chris Tillman recently returned from the Paternity List. Reports indicate he was inspired by seeing his first mechanically sound delivery in months.
28

38

50

30.5

33.0

34.6

.387

.382

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.0%

My biggest takeaway from the Futures Game? Josh Naylor.
29

34

56

34.8

32.3

32.8

.372

.367

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

I’m not going to make fun of a team that just got swept by the Marlins. A man must have principles.
30

29

58

33.8

32.5

33.0

.368

.364

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ok, so it was a rough first “half” for the Phillies, but they’re nearly assured to reach the vaunted 30-win milestone after the break!

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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