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Prospectus Hit List for June 19



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for June 15 Hit List for June 22
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Philadelphia fights back against the NL West's strangehold on the bottom.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

46

24

45.6

47.1

46.4

.661

.666

97.9%

1.7%

99.6%

-0.1%

-0.1%

The Astros have lost their last four series and still have an 11-game lead in their division, if you’re wondering how the rest of the AL West is enjoying 2017.
2

38

29

43.8

46.9

46.2

.653

.658

45.7%

32.9%

78.6%

-3.8%

-9.5%

The Yankees are 0-6 since the Warriors defeated the Cavs in the NBA Finals. Is it possible that the Yankees are just trying to distract us ...
3

44

26

45.4

44.8

44.8

.639

.635

73.2%

26.5%

99.7%

0.1%

0.8%

Clayton Kershaw will get to face the Mets on an extra day of rest today, further proving that if god does exist, he absolutely despises the Mets.
4

44

26

44.1

42.9

41.5

.616

.611

12.3%

77.7%

90.0%

0.6%

11.8%

The Diamondbacks have won seven straight with A.J. Pollock and Yasmany Tomas on the DL. Even the Dodgers are impressed.
5

42

27

41.1

42.5

40.4

.602

.597

95.9%

0.9%

96.8%

-0.5%

0.0%

Nothing in Washington is a broken as the Nats’ bullpen. Yes, I know what I’m saying.
6

46

26

43.4

41.6

41.4

.599

.594

14.5%

78.4%

92.9%

1.1%

4.2%

An optimist would congratulate Nolan Arenado on doing pretty much the coolest thing ever -- hitting a walk-off homer to complete a cycle -- but a pessimist would note that means he’s probably already reached the greatest heights he’ll ever attain. Eat at Arby’s.
7

36

31

37.5

39.4

39.5

.569

.573

85.0%

4.9%

90.0%

3.1%

10.0%

It’s bad enough that Brad Zimmer beat his older brother Kyle to the majors. Now he’s throwing harder than him too, what with his 101.5 mph bullet from center field yesterday.
8

37

35

37.7

40.4

41.3

.543

.548

11.1%

29.3%

40.3%

4.2%

2.9%

Steven Souza Jr. homered on Mother’s Day and Father’s Day this year, so it’s gonna be an awkward Thanksgiving for the rest of the Souza children.
9

39

30

37.5

36.2

35.7

.538

.543

39.8%

35.5%

75.3%

4.0%

11.1%

From terrible to Cy Young winner to terrible in three years. Rick Porcello is the platonic ideal of a Ben Cherington acquisition.
10

34

34

35.2

36.8

36.4

.524

.519

58.5%

3.6%

62.2%

4.2%

-2.7%

Congrats to the Cubs for reaching .500 again. Looking forward to their “Waiting for Godot”-themed team outing.
11

38

33

37.2

34.1

33.8

.504

.499

27.5%

4.5%

32.0%

1.1%

6.3%

“Nelson picks up ‘pen by going the distance” reads the Brewers.com headline written by someone who showed incredible self-restraint in passing on a “Full Nelson” joke.
12

31

37

34.4

33.5

33.5

.487

.492

1.6%

2.7%

4.3%

-1.4%

2.0%

Mike Pelfrey -- yes, that Mike Pelfrey -- has allowed two or fewer runs in six consecutive starts. Put Don Cooper in the Hall of Fame ASAP.
13

34

37

34.3

34.0

34.9

.483

.488

0.7%

18.8%

19.5%

2.2%

-2.9%

Both Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are poised to rejoin the Mariners later this week, which means we can switch gears from making jokes about injuries to making jokes about Father Time.
14

36

37

36.2

34.1

34.5

.482

.487

0.1%

6.2%

6.3%

-2.7%

-2.0%

Cameron Maybin has reached based in 23 consecutive games, making him the most successful Angels outfielder in (extremely) recent memory.
15

30

37

33.2

34.4

34.3

.492

.487

1.7%

1.9%

3.5%

-0.9%

-1.0%

Is there anything more Marlins than letting a slow ground ball trickle through a five-man infield to lose on a walk-off? Yes: having that happen one day after allowing another walkoff to the same dude.
16

34

34

35.3

30.3

30.3

.478

.483

1.2%

23.5%

24.6%

-4.6%

6.5%

As Tyson Ross returns from the DL, Andrew Cashner goes on it. For every former Padres starting pitcher health update there is an equal and opposite former Padres starting pitcher health update.
17

33

35

32.2

32.1

32.3

.476

.481

2.5%

10.3%

12.7%

3.0%

-5.4%

The Blue Jays have a top-10 pitching staff by ERA and a bottom-10 offense by runs scored. They are the embodiment of the shruggy emoji.
18

32

36

33.1

32.2

32.2

.476

.481

3.6%

6.3%

9.9%

-3.4%

-6.7%

“Tigers snap up 3B brother of NFL start Bortles” reads the Tigers.com headline that uses the loosest definition of the term “star” possible.
19

31

37

32.3

34.0

34.7

.485

.480

9.0%

1.9%

10.9%

-4.1%

-8.2%

We’re getting to the “uncomfortable conversation about taking the driver’s license away” point in Adam Wainwright’s career.
20

34

33

29.2

30.0

30.4

.462

.466

6.8%

11.2%

18.0%

-4.6%

-13.4%

If the Twins hit into a double play during either of the games they lose in a double-header is that technically a sixtuplet killing? Or is it exponential?
21

33

35

30.4

29.3

31.4

.456

.461

3.0%

5.2%

8.2%

1.7%

5.2%

“We’re not dead,” the Royals exclaim as they’re pushed through the village on a wheelbarrow. “We’re getting better. We don’t want to go on the cart.”
22

31

38

27.5

32.1

33.4

.450

.454

0.1%

5.2%

5.3%

1.3%

2.4%

Santiago Casilla was struck by a foul ball while sitting in the bullpen on Saturday in an astounding fit of bad luck usually reserved for Mariners only.
23

31

37

30.2

31.8

30.3

.453

.448

0.4%

0.6%

1.1%

0.1%

0.1%

The Braves say they’ll move to a six-man rotation once Bartolo Colon returns from the DL. Can’t blame them for opting for a nice, round number.
24

29

39

31.3

31.8

30.8

.452

.447

0.7%

0.2%

0.8%

-0.5%

-3.5%

If this really is it for Bronson Arroyo, congrats on an utterly bizarre but largely entertaining career. Just ... please don’t go back to cornrows.
25

34

34

29.6

26.9

29.3

.440

.445

1.0%

6.3%

7.3%

1.1%

-0.2%

Why don’t they make the entire plane out of Manny Machado’s throws to first base from foul territory?
26

31

38

30.1

30.0

30.8

.442

.437

4.2%

0.8%

5.0%

-1.8%

-0.8%

“Bucs post mixed results in 10-game homestand” reads the Pirates.com headline that wants you to know the Pirates did not go unbeaten or winless during their time in Pittsburgh.
27

31

37

31.3

29.3

28.6

.442

.437

1.9%

3.1%

5.0%

0.9%

-4.9%

Jacob deGrom hit his first career homer yesterday, so expect him to start playing over Michael Conforto regularly soon.
28

28

42

23.5

26.4

27.9

.378

.373

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

When you’re a Padre, every day is a Father’s Day loss.
29

26

45

26.8

26.4

27.4

.375

.371

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.2%

-2.0%

Pretty impressive, Jeff Samardzija. The Giants’ righty hit the longest homer ever by a pitcher in the Statcast Era, as well as the fourth-longest homer ever by a Musketeer.
30

22

46

24.8

23.4

23.9

.346

.341

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Phillies have won just one of their past 12 games. The pitcher they beat in that matchup? Chris Sale. This is such a stupid sport.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
lipitorkid

I love that a Twins team that has recently fallen out of 1st place is 20th on the Hit List. Their whole season has been like a team of bank robbers feeling like they got away with something because they still haven't been caught after a two hour slow speed chase on the freeway.

It looks like the baseball gods just deployed a spike strip.

Jun 19, 2017 07:45 AM
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+4

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ChicagoOriole

Well, you have to consider the speed of the cops chasing them, and there is only really one cop on the beat there. Other than that, it is the lame tripping over the halt.

Jun 19, 2017 09:06 AM
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