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Prospectus Hit List for April 15



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for April 13 Hit List for April 17
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's coming down to the wire! Who will win the Hit List?

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

7

1

6.8

7.3

7.0

.696

.713

54.4%

11.9%

66.3%

1.9%

13.5%

Shane Greene pitched effectively with few strikeouts, had great defense behind him and the game and the closer shut the door in the ninth inning. Conclusion: Shane Greene is not actually in Detroit.
2

7

0

6.2

6.5

6.4

.693

.709

16.8%

9.9%

26.7%

-0.7%

14.1%

Among other moves, Kansas City signed both Franklin and Kendrys Morales in the offseason. The last time royals added this many of their own Morales, Henry VIII began the Reformation.
3

5

4

7.1

7.3

6.9

.624

.643

22.7%

16.8%

39.5%

3.5%

5.0%

You know what they: bat your most obscure player second, and that's great news for Mark Canha.
4

6

2

5.0

5.5

5.3

.614

.633

48.7%

25.6%

74.2%

4.0%

11.9%

Mookie Betts' full initials are MLB and Hanley Ramirez's are HR, which are both incredibly fitting. Meanwhile, Mike Napoli's is MAN, which is just trying too hard.
5

5

3

4.3

5.5

5.4

.585

.605

32.0%

28.8%

60.7%

4.5%

13.8%

Don't look now but the fourth person on the Rays depth chart: it's you.
6

5

3

4.0

5.2

5.1

.602

.582

77.8%

14.4%

92.2%

2.9%

2.1%

On Jackie Robinson Day, let us point out that since he played for Montreal before Brooklyn, he broke not only the color barrier but also the colour barrier.
7

6

2

5.9

5.9

5.8

.595

.576

2.6%

9.9%

12.5%

2.1%

7.5%

The Rockies hitting over .300 is indelible proof that the '90s can live forever if you just choose to believe they will.
8

3

3

3.5

4.2

4.1

.585

.565

48.9%

18.4%

67.3%

0.1%

0.5%

You may ask, "what's a Cardinal Way?" I may answer, "about 200 pounds."
9

6

2

5.3

5.2

4.9

.552

.532

4.4%

5.1%

9.4%

-3.3%

1.6%

"With Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli, the Braves have the best bullpen backend in the major leagues," I said as security dragged me out of Costco for the fourth straight day.
10

5

4

5.4

5.2

5.2

.550

.530

12.6%

32.2%

44.7%

4.5%

2.1%

There is no timetable for Melvin Upton, Jr.'s return, at least until he figures out what his name actually is and what team he plays for.
11

4

4

4.9

3.4

3.6

.498

.518

9.1%

18.0%

27.1%

-3.3%

-1.7%

Dalton Pompey is off to a slow start, but if history is any indicator, he'll finish the season with a boom.
12

4

4

3.9

4.2

4.3

.496

.516

4.5%

9.9%

14.4%

0.2%

-9.3%

If Caleb Joseph is hittin' triples, then in the name of Earl Weaver it's definitely the Year of the Triple.
13

5

3

4.5

4.2

4.1

.532

.512

27.5%

16.5%

44.0%

3.7%

1.4%

Terry Collins was ejected during the game, and per Metropolitan bylaw, Mr. Met had to make pitching changes the rest of the game.
14

3

5

3.8

4.1

4.2

.483

.503

5.8%

11.8%

17.5%

-2.2%

-2.6%

Last night's batting lineup had one player who was on the Yankees roster two years ago: Mark Teixeira, and he played all of 15 games that season.
15

4

3

3.5

3.3

3.5

.518

.498

25.2%

21.8%

47.0%

-3.6%

5.5%

[The Cubs go five months using a designated hitter, and nobody notices] Joe Maddon, you genius!
16

5

3

4.1

3.5

3.6

.488

.468

6.2%

9.3%

15.5%

2.3%

1.9%

Joey Votto is walking, homering, driving in runs and calling his mother regularly. At this moment, absolutely nobody is angry at him.
17

3

5

2.5

2.4

2.6

.445

.465

43.0%

17.9%

60.9%

-5.0%

-8.8%

You know the joke about how the magician had someone strike him with a hammer, then woke up years later from a coma and said "Ta-da?" Perhaps that's how Arte Moreno is talking about getting out of Josh Hamilton's contract.
18

3

5

4.0

3.8

3.7

.479

.459

11.4%

13.6%

25.1%

-2.6%

-0.3%

When Arquimedes Caminero has two strikes on a batter, he absolutely wants to ensure the batter does not reach base. Sounds crazy, but that's Arquimedes' principle.
19

3

5

2.7

2.5

2.7

.435

.455

24.0%

16.8%

40.8%

-2.7%

-10.6%

Sure, it's a slightly disappointing start, but bear in mind we're just rickie weeks into the season.
20

4

5

3.8

2.8

3.0

.429

.448

4.9%

6.3%

11.1%

0.2%

-6.0%

A healthy and revitalized Prince Fielder is great news for the Rangers and horrible news for whoever has to rake around the bases between innings.
21

2

5

2.5

2.6

2.8

.421

.440

12.5%

8.8%

21.3%

-3.4%

-11.1%

The Indians can send Shaun Marcum to Triple-A if he clears waives, a process which consists of 29 others teams saying "wow I didn't know he was still in the league."
22

3

5

2.2

2.9

2.8

.410

.429

5.4%

6.6%

12.0%

-0.1%

-3.9%

If the Astros always take batting practice with the approach that they're trying to break up a no-hitter in the ninth, they're going to hit .400 the rest of the way.
23

3

6

3.0

3.9

3.7

.447

.428

6.3%

19.4%

25.7%

-5.2%

-11.4%

New team slogan: And He'll Be Taken Out, Let's Just Hope It's Not Serious™.
24

3

4

2.2

2.0

2.0

.407

.426

14.7%

9.3%

24.1%

2.9%

-1.8%

Jose Abreu is taking another run at American League MVP, but doesn't it seem like these candidacies begin earlier and earlier every year?
25

2

6

2.5

2.6

2.6

.437

.418

55.7%

13.9%

69.6%

-3.4%

-5.5%

Doctor, doctor, what's wrong with the Nats? Well as it turns out their chronic Expositis is just flaring up. Take two of these and call me in the morning. (It's not stanozolol.)
26

4

4

4.1

2.5

2.6

.430

.411

0.8%

4.1%

5.0%

-1.1%

0.2%

Ender Inciarte has been putting on a clinic in timely hitting this year, which personally I feel he should do on his own time and not during games.
27

2

6

2.7

2.5

2.9

.407

.388

11.2%

9.8%

21.0%

3.6%

-3.9%

The Marlins have one home run through eight games. The 2014 Royals also had one home run through their first eight games. You know where I'm going with this: The 2015 Marlins won't win the World Series either.
28

3

5

2.7

2.6

2.6

.379

.360

1.1%

1.0%

2.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

Chase Utley's two-homer game only increases his trade value and decreases Ryan Howard's trade value. Other things that decrease Ryan Howards trade value: water, wind, Middle East unrest.
29

2

5

1.6

1.4

1.6

.367

.349

8.3%

10.7%

18.9%

0.4%

-1.7%

Francisco Rodriguez is now in the top 10 among career save leaders, but just 469th on the career strikeout list. They really should call him "Save Rod," not to be confused with the Dungeons and Dragons magical wand of the same name.
30

1

6

0.9

0.6

0.9

.281

.297

1.5%

1.7%

3.2%

0.2%

-2.4%

Sure, it's only April, but Trevor May is not a good rotation replacement for Ervin Santana, so unfortunately it's also May.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


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