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Prospectus Hit List for July 2



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 30 Hit List for July 7
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

If this Hit List were a bumper sticker, it would be too long.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

51

32

55.3

53.3

53.0

.640

.658

63.6%

34.4%

98.0%

-0.4%

1.3%

Sadly for A's fans, you can't complain about a pitcher unless your team spent at least three dollars to acquire him.
2

47

35

46.9

50.8

50.5

.595

.614

30.9%

62.5%

93.5%

2.2%

5.0%

Mike Trout has the longest homer so far this season, which isn't a euphemism.
3

46

38

49.8

47.1

46.1

.563

.582

5.5%

47.7%

53.2%

4.9%

7.8%

Playing the Astros is like writing your name on the S.A.T.
4

46

34

42.4

44.6

43.3

.551

.571

84.6%

5.4%

90.0%

2.9%

8.1%

Rick Porcello has thrown two shutouts in a row and somewhere Prince Fielder just pulled something smiling knowingly.
5

46

39

46.0

44.7

44.4

.532

.552

47.8%

7.4%

55.2%

2.4%

-9.4%

The Blue Jays' red Canada Day uniforms are dying for a Rob Ford joke but then everything is dying for a Rob Ford joke so I'll just say happy Canada day and leave it at that.
6

45

38

47.3

46.8

46.6

.559

.539

64.4%

13.2%

77.6%

4.3%

-1.7%

Stephen Strasburg's double leading to a four run rally and a 7-0 lead was just another example of Strasburg not hitting to the score.
7

48

38

48.5

48.6

47.1

.559

.539

60.9%

30.3%

91.2%

-1.6%

5.1%

"Three outs to an inning, right? It used to be that way." --Vin Scully during a four minute multiple replay stoppage of last night's game to confirm a triple play.
8

44

39

43.1

42.6

42.1

.518

.538

23.9%

8.0%

31.9%

4.6%

4.5%

Nelson Cruz is now three homers away from his single season career high making it all the more likely that some team will commit a huge mistake this coming offseason.
9

47

36

45.8

46.7

45.9

.554

.534

39.0%

41.4%

80.4%

4.6%

-9.3%

This is why the Giants re-signed Tim Lincecum. Because, for three weeks a summer, they could say, "We're so glad we re-signed Tim Lincecum!"
10

51

34

46.5

45.5

44.7

.552

.532

56.4%

24.0%

80.4%

-2.6%

1.7%

Historically when a starting pitcher gives up the same number of homers as batters he struck out it means he lost. Also it means he probably died decades ago. Congrats on beating half the odds, Marco Estrada!
11

44

40

43.6

47.0

47.0

.540

.520

24.6%

25.9%

50.5%

-5.6%

-13.5%

The defending NL champs put two non-pitchers with batting averages under .200 in their starting lineup. Care to guess how many hits they got? Yes, exactly.
12

43

40

42.5

38.6

39.7

.494

.514

7.9%

11.2%

19.1%

-8.1%

-5.2%

The Royals have hit 47 homers, 63 behind league-leading Toronto, but KC's 12 triples are only two behind Toronto's 14 so maybe next time just stop at third.
13

37

49

39.0

45.0

44.9

.482

.502

3.0%

0.9%

3.9%

1.0%

3.0%

David Price has 12 quality starts for a quality start percentage of 70.5 percent which is good, but not Vance Worley good.
14

43

40

43.3

42.8

43.2

.519

.499

12.6%

22.7%

35.4%

-3.4%

12.7%

There was probably a reason to double-switch Joey Votto out of the game and put Jose Contreras in his spot while down six in the ninth, but NL ball be damned I can't imagine what it was.
15

40

43

39.9

39.2

39.4

.477

.497

4.9%

9.1%

14.1%

2.4%

0.5%

Consistent with being last in the AL in attendance, nobody in Cleveland came out to watch the Indians play last night. Not one person. Sure the game was in LA, but show some support, people!
16

46

38

42.4

41.8

42.6

.514

.494

33.7%

23.2%

56.9%

2.1%

20.1%

Four of five Braves pitchers in last night's game threw under two innings and all received a hold, a save, or a win. The only pitcher who got no credit was the starter who pitched four innings. Pitching stats are like Cricket. They theoretically involve a ball and a pitcher, and are utterly incomprehensible.
17

41

41

37.3

37.2

38.4

.469

.489

19.7%

6.3%

25.9%

-7.8%

-8.9%

MLB's headline was "Price proves too much for Yanks" which was the first time in human history those words were written in that order.
18

38

44

38.2

38.8

38.6

.468

.488

1.8%

2.6%

4.3%

0.4%

-5.1%

Joe Mauer strained his oblique which fittingly means he may miss Joe Mauer bobble-oblique day.
19

43

40

40.6

41.8

42.8

.507

.487

6.3%

16.0%

22.3%

2.5%

-0.2%

The Pirates have hit the most batters and been hit by the most pitches so a modest suggestion: eliminate the middlemen and throw at yourselves.
20

38

46

37.9

39.1

39.2

.459

.479

5.7%

2.4%

8.0%

-2.9%

-0.6%

The Cubs have great pitching. That's the new Red Sox motto.
21

39

46

38.7

37.7

37.7

.450

.470

0.7%

1.4%

2.2%

-1.5%

-0.6%

Jose Abreu homered again, tying for the lead in home runs. OK, sure, 26, whatever, but get back in there and we'll see what you've really got say pitchers.
22

40

43

41.1

38.8

38.5

.477

.457

0.8%

1.0%

1.8%

0.2%

-2.4%

Recently revealed email exchanges suggested the Astros asked the Marlins for their firework-shooting fish-spinning home run statue for Bud Norris. "But, how will Bud Norris spin fish?" asked the Marlins.
23

36

46

39.7

40.3

40.0

.476

.456

0.1%

0.6%

0.6%

0.1%

-0.6%

Who can hit the best reliever in baseball over the last year and a half? Nobody. And nobody is the Cubs.
24

37

47

41.5

40.5

40.6

.475

.455

0.8%

0.7%

1.5%

-0.4%

-5.1%

Sure, they might get a win in the standings, but the Mets should know that when Daisuke Matsuzaka pitches nobody ever wins.
25

36

49

34.9

37.1

39.1

.433

.452

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.1%

You can laugh at this comment but it'll cost you a billion dollars. Ok, a million. [six months later] OK, one BP subscription.
26

36

48

40.2

41.6

39.7

.465

.445

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

0.0%

-2.4%

Taking out a pitcher with a nine-run ERA for a pitcher with an 11-run ERA seems--actually, solid strategy, Walt Weiss. Forget I said anything.
27

37

46

34.5

31.4

32.7

.408

.428

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.4%

The Rangers have been caught stealing 33 times, leading to a new organizational strategy: go straight across.
28

36

47

36.9

36.9

37.5

.444

.424

0.3%

0.3%

0.6%

-0.3%

-3.6%

Cliff Lee threw a simulated game and could soon be ready for a minor-league game. I assume there is a difference between those two and a regular Phillies game.
29

35

50

35.2

36.6

36.7

.422

.402

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.0%

-0.3%

Sure, maybe in a vacuum the Diamondbacks should trade Paul Goldschmidt, but at that point wouldn't a large tree fall silently and unnoticed on the franchise?
30

37

47

35.3

31.8

32.0

.405

.386

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

-0.5%

The Padres scored eight runs last night. Guess how many times they've scored eight or more this season. Nope. Five.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
DetroitDale

Always love a tree falling in the woods reference.

It DOES make a sound BTW

Jul 05, 2014 21:00 PM
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