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Prospectus Hit List for April 30



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 28 Hit List for May 2
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Spoilers ahead. Do not read if you haven't watched all 15 of yesterday's games already.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

17

10

18.6

18.7

18.0

.591

.610

39.5%

23.9%

63.5%

-2.7%

-1.6%

Scott Kazmir is 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA, numbers that must be some sort of code to alien beings that the earth is weak and ripe for the taking.
2

13

13

16.3

16.2

15.8

.564

.584

32.6%

24.2%

56.8%

3.1%

-0.5%

Two facts: 1) Albert Pujols is slugging .602 in an amazing comeback season. 2) Mike Trout has been two and a half times as valuable as Pujols.
3

17

8

15.4

17.3

17.2

.587

.568

42.2%

20.6%

62.8%

-5.9%

7.4%

The Braves lineup last night featured five players hitting below .200. They scored zero runs. Sometimes the obvious answer turns out to be correct.
4

13

9

11.5

11.9

11.7

.545

.565

66.0%

8.8%

74.8%

1.9%

4.6%

Is it too mean to put a “le” in the space between “Worth” and “SS?”
5

20

7

16.5

17.7

17.1

.579

.559

53.4%

16.2%

69.6%

2.0%

14.5%

Khris Davis has more home runs than Chris Davis.
6

14

12

13.3

13.9

13.0

.559

.540

61.4%

23.2%

84.6%

0.9%

-3.2%

‘Dee Gordon: leadoff hitter’ is like a Sylvester Stallone movie about competitive toothpick house building that you enjoy.
7

15

12

14.7

15.0

15.6

.553

.533

44.2%

24.1%

68.3%

4.5%

-1.8%

Wait, now we’re killing Bryce Harper for playing too hard again? I can’t keep all this straight!
8

11

16

12.2

14.1

14.3

.512

.532

20.6%

17.1%

37.6%

-2.0%

-18.7%

The Rays are 3-16 when their opponent scores more than two runs.
9

13

14

12.2

13.0

12.6

.508

.528

28.2%

19.2%

47.5%

2.9%

9.5%

Last night, Mike Napoli saw 17 percent of the pitches thrown by Rays pitchers.
10

15

11

11.8

12.1

11.5

.507

.527

35.6%

20.3%

55.8%

-3.3%

6.6%

Robinson Cano returned to New York and fans chanted "Sellout" at him which is weird because only 37,484 people were there.
11

16

11

15.4

13.7

13.3

.542

.522

29.5%

35.3%

64.8%

5.4%

9.7%

In a transparent attempt at baseball immortality, Matt Cain missed last night’s start after cutting his finger while preparing a pre-game sandwich. Cain is day-to-day. The sandwich was delicious.
12

13

12

13.3

12.8

12.3

.500

.520

14.2%

11.4%

25.6%

2.7%

1.3%

"The good thing about being at home is that you can use your closer to help win games" over a picture of a sleeping tiger is the first in a series of Ned Yost-themed motivational posters.
13

14

14

15.0

15.9

15.8

.539

.519

29.0%

19.3%

48.3%

-2.8%

-16.3%

With last night's loss, neither of last season's World Series teams is over .500.
14

15

12

12.4

13.0

12.9

.498

.518

18.1%

20.9%

39.1%

-0.2%

-5.4%

“Scoring nine runs on eight hits is easy. Tell ‘em Wash.”
15

16

12

16.4

16.7

15.8

.530

.510

7.6%

16.2%

23.8%

2.1%

4.3%

Justin Moreau is hitting .357/.381/.643. The more you know.
16

14

14

14.7

14.2

14.5

.489

.509

8.1%

8.0%

16.1%

-2.5%

0.0%

Gordon Beckham, currently a .143/.217/.190 hitter, is batting second, presumably because he can handle a bat, by which I mean he’s seen one before.
17

12

14

12.6

12.2

11.5

.483

.503

8.8%

10.2%

19.0%

-2.6%

-8.0%

Last night Brett Cecil got both a hold and a loss which raises the questions, just what exactly was he holding and would he have pitched better if he’d put it down?
18

11

14

11.9

11.5

12.0

.483

.503

9.6%

14.4%

24.0%

5.2%

10.7%

Robinson Cano returned to New York to a standing ovation because people with $240 million have dreams too.
19

12

11

12.0

11.7

11.9

.483

.503

5.5%

5.5%

11.1%

0.7%

4.2%

“The Twins lead baseball in OBP and Phil Hughes is good but unlucky,” said Marty McFly when asked about baseball in 2014 after going back in time in Back to the Future 4: An extensive apology for Back to the Future Parts II and III.
20

12

14

14.7

14.8

14.6

.522

.502

12.9%

10.6%

23.5%

0.5%

-2.7%

Billy Hamilton homered which might mean baseball is broken.
21

12

12

11.4

9.6

9.4

.461

.481

6.8%

8.4%

15.2%

-0.5%

1.6%

Matt Wieters is hitting .338/.370/.554. Score one for 2009 PECOTA!
22

11

16

11.3

11.9

12.2

.459

.478

6.2%

7.4%

13.6%

-2.3%

-3.9%

The Indians have a pitcher named C.C. Lee who is not, repeat NOT, the illegitimate lovechild of CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. He’s the illegitimate lovechild of CC Sabathia and Lee Elia.
23

12

14

14.6

14.7

15.2

.490

.470

1.3%

2.2%

3.5%

0.4%

-1.2%

The player with the highest OBP on the team with the second-highest OBP in the NL is Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Sowhatdoyamakea that?
24

15

11

13.6

10.7

11.3

.473

.453

5.5%

9.3%

14.9%

1.0%

3.1%

Eric Young has a .320 OBP this season and a .325 OBP in his career yet he has hit leadoff in 92 percent of the Mets games this season. Why is he in the leadoff spot? Is he stuck there? Does he need help?
25

13

13

11.4

10.6

11.4

.464

.444

6.7%

10.3%

17.0%

-2.2%

4.9%

The Phillies lost 6-1 but more importantly their last three relievers were Holland Manship Camp which is probably really a place.
26

10

16

12.1

10.6

11.6

.460

.440

4.1%

5.0%

9.1%

0.5%

-6.6%

The Pirates are last in baseball in doubles, but tied for eighth in homers. Shorten up your swings, boys! This is embarrassing!
27

13

15

10.7

10.3

11.3

.439

.419

1.4%

6.2%

7.6%

-4.7%

-9.7%

The Padres' attempt to score seven runs with only three baserunners failed. Back to the lab! We need more science!
28

8

17

10.9

10.4

10.2

.426

.406

0.5%

0.8%

1.4%

-0.7%

-1.4%

The Cubs almost won two straight, which would have matched their best win streak of the season. But they didn't. Stay Cubs, Cubs!
29

9

18

8.5

8.5

9.3

.373

.392

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

-0.3%

-0.4%

I hope the Astros know it’s going to be tough to keep losing like this if they continue to accumulate first overall draft picks.
30

8

22

9.0

10.3

10.5

.398

.379

0.2%

0.7%

0.8%

-0.9%

-1.1%

The Diamondbacks left the tying and winning runs on base in the ninth inning which at this point really should count as a win for them.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


8 comments have been left for this article.
DetroitDale

RE: the Yankees line: Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Jacoby Ellsbury were unavailable for comment

Apr 30, 2014 08:55 AM
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+5

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rweiler

You would think with all the money teams have invested in players, they could hire somebody for minimum wage to keep them away from sharp objects. At least, it sure seems like the Giants ought to.

Apr 30, 2014 08:56 AM
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0

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jsdspud

Ironic how Cano is disliked by Yankee fans because he left for more money, when the bulk of their team is made up of free agents.

Apr 30, 2014 09:28 AM
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+4

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Schere

that is an amazing Mike Trout stat. Just incredible.

Apr 30, 2014 10:00 AM
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+2

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lmarighi

Never apologize for Back to the Future II and III!

Apr 30, 2014 12:59 PM
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0

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BP staff member Matt Kory

In my house we apologize when we make a horrible mistake.

Apr 30, 2014 14:01 PM
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+2

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aspit01

How long were you waiting to use the Justin Morneau line ?

Apr 30, 2014 14:33 PM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Believe it or not, I made it up on the spot and was so so proud of myself.

Apr 30, 2014 16:53 PM
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0

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