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Prospectus Hit List for September 20



by Ben Lindbergh and Andrew Koo

Hit List for September 19 Hit List for September 21
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Texas Rangers reach 100 percent playoff odds, just like in April.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

88

60

86.0

90.6

89.3

.598

.617

94.2%

5.8%

100.0%

0.3%

0.3%

The Rangers won without Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre. And with Michael Young!
2

85

63

84.5

85.1

86.0

.575

.595

74.4%

23.6%

98.0%

2.8%

7.6%

Derek Jeter got his eighth 200-hit season, tying Lou Gehrig, while his shortstop counterpart Omar Vizquel passed Babe Ruth on the all-time hit list. Both will still be playing in their 50s as they chase the respective legends’ home run totals.
3

90

58

88.4

89.4

87.7

.601

.581

96.6%

3.4%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

No one talks about the Nationals anymore. :(
4

81

68

82.2

84.4

85.8

.559

.579

0.2%

23.2%

23.4%

-11.3%

-3.4%

Imagine Mike Trout’s WARP. Take half of it. Deduct a further 10 percent from it. That’s Albert Pujols’ WARP!
5

79

70

83.5

83.9

85.6

.557

.577

0.0%

4.4%

4.4%

0.5%

-34.8%

Hey, look at all these runs we’re piling on! /waves Pythag Flag
6

84

64

81.5

78.4

79.4

.546

.566

5.6%

74.9%

80.4%

-2.0%

-10.4%

Brett Anderson’s overtaxed medical team barely gets out of bed for a busted oblique, but this late in the season, even a strain can be season ending. The A’s face their final 10 games against the Tigers, Yankees, and Rangers with a rotation of rookies whose lack of experience will either crush them or keep them loose, depending on your narrative.
7

79

69

79.5

81.5

81.6

.543

.563

29.4%

5.5%

34.9%

11.2%

-18.9%

Is there a Triple Crown for Misfielding, TOOTBLANs, and grounding into double plays? If so, I think Miguel Cabrera would be "in the discussion."
8

81

67

81.8

79.3

78.3

.541

.561

70.6%

1.7%

72.3%

-10.8%

24.0%

Since the end of May, Paul Konerko has hit .262/.330/.406, and A.J. Pierzynski is slumping in September. Fortunately, Dewayne Wise is still around to carry the torch for mid-30s players having weirdly successful seasons.
9

86

64

84.5

83.3

83.4

.562

.542

3.4%

96.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.7%

Nate Silver is reporting rapidly increasing numbers for Kris Medlen in the latest polling.
10

90

59

83.7

81.4

78.6

.560

.540

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jonathan Broxton, since the trade from Cincinnati, is pitching (almost) like Jonathan Broxton again: 15 Ks and three walks in 18 innings.
11

79

70

84.1

84.8

82.4

.554

.534

0.0%

81.5%

81.5%

1.9%

12.6%

The Cardinals end September with a scheduled stuffed full of Cubs and Astros. But will they still cling to sanity when confronted with the sight of a competitive playoff team? As Aton whimpered in Isaac Asimov’s “Nightfall,” “Stars—all the Stars—we didn't know at all.”
12

85

64

73.4

70.6

72.4

.506

.526

25.6%

61.1%

86.7%

9.3%

35.6%

Suddenly, the Orioles are winning extra-inning games by TWO runs. So what's the narrative now?
13

86

63

80.5

78.5

77.2

.541

.521

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.3%

Bud Selig is waiting to “see how it all plays out” with the batting title and Melky Cabrera. He’s going to call a tie.
14

76

72

79.0

79.4

76.6

.525

.505

0.0%

6.9%

6.9%

1.3%

3.8%

You have the wild card! No, you have the wild card! YOU have the wild card!
15

68

82

72.3

74.6

74.9

.483

.503

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Daisuke Matsuzaka and Daniel Bard really need to be opposing starters in a game.
16

74

74

77.8

78.1

77.8

.520

.500

0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

-0.1%

-2.1%

Yes, the D-Backs’ victory on Wednesday kept them in Wild Card kinda-contention, but at this point, their season takes a backseat to Brad Ziegler’s quest to break the single-season ground-ball rate record. A three-out, three-grounder seventh raised his rate to 77 percent.
17

77

72

76.2

75.2

75.4

.510

.490

0.0%

8.9%

8.9%

-1.9%

-8.9%

Chris Capuano for wild card play-in tiebreaker game starter, and Aaron Harang for wild card play-in game starter!
18

70

80

70.5

68.8

70.5

.466

.486

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Justin Smoak saw seven pitches in five at-bats last night.
19

75

74

74.0

76.3

75.9

.505

.485

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.1%

-2.3%

Ryan Howard homered! It’s the Sam Miller anti-jinx!
20

66

81

69.4

65.1

66.9

.455

.475

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Swept in a doubleheader. And the city turns to hockey... oh.
21

67

81

69.6

65.4

65.5

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bruce Chen shut out the White Sox to lower his team-leading (qualified) ERA to 5.22.
22

74

74

72.7

73.0

70.9

.491

.471

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-1.3%

-4.2%

No, you have the wild card! You have the wild card! JUST TAKE IT!
23

66

82

68.2

71.7

73.9

.473

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How Mets would it be if they traded alleged party animal Ike Davis away to a boring city and he flourished because there’s no night life there?
24

71

78

69.8

70.5

69.5

.471

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Before last night, Mark Kotsay hadn’t started a game since August, but Kotsay has moved beyond such petty concerns as playing time. He’s now ascended to a higher plane where the Padres pay him to sit perfectly still and radiate pure clubhouse presence.
25

62

87

62.9

65.4

65.2

.429

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Glen Perkins now has 13 saves on the season and a career 2.83 ERA and 8.7 K/9 in relief. His career as a starter: 5.06 ERA and 4.3 K/9 in the rotation.
26

66

84

64.6

67.3

68.3

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins were nearly no-hit on Opening Day with a lineup including Emilio Bonifacio, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, and Omar Infante. Yesterday was pretty much the same, with Rob Brantly, Donovan Solano, Bryan Petersen, and the electrifying Gorkys Hernandez.
27

61

88

56.1

60.6

61.6

.401

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The bad news is that their latest loss to the Twins dropped the Indians into last place. The good news is that with six home games to go, Cleveland is still clinging to an 1,853-fan lead over the Astros in the race for 28th place in attendance.
28

58

90

63.5

59.9

59.6

.407

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A day apart last December, the Twins signed Josh Willingham for three years and $21 million, and the Rockies signed Michael Cuddyer for three years and $31.5 million. A day apart this September, Willingham hit his 35th homer, and Cuddyer continued not to play. Paging Doc Brown to Baseball Ops.
29

58

91

61.8

58.0

58.4

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Paul Maholm is still leading the Cubs in wins.
30

48

101

52.0

52.1

52.3

.343

.325

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The best thing about Jose Altuve is that he’s the only player on Houston who qualifies for the batting title.

Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Andrew Koo is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Andrew's other articles. You can contact Andrew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
R.A.Wagman

Great as usual, Ben (?!?) but methinks you have your Yankees historical figures mixed up with your current old shortstops. Vizquel passed Ruth and Jeter tied Gehrig.

Sep 20, 2012 08:20 AM
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BP staff member Ben Lindbergh

Fixed.

Sep 20, 2012 08:38 AM
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BP staff member Andrew Koo

Whoops, sorry!

Sep 20, 2012 08:44 AM
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APer930

TOOTBLANS?

and hey, the Indians are in the lead for a better draft spot!

Sep 20, 2012 09:23 AM
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BP staff member Ben Lindbergh

TOOTBLAN

Sep 20, 2012 09:27 AM
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