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Prospectus Hit List for April 20



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for April 19
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's early, but injuries are already testing the Dodgers' depth and a few expected contenders are already sinking fast.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

8

8

10.6

11.0

11.0

.616

.611

70.2%

18.0%

88.2%

2.9%

-2.5%

Some guys take a while to acclimate to their new teams, but Logan Forsythe proved that he truly understands the current Dodgers culture by breaking his toe.
2

10

5

10.5

11.4

11.0

.601

.606

19.7%

18.1%

37.8%

2.4%

10.7%

We might need to start calling Aaron Judge “Baby Giancarlo Stanton,” but it’s hard to believe Judge ever was or could be a baby anything.
3

10

5

8.7

9.1

8.9

.593

.598

70.0%

16.6%

86.6%

1.8%

2.7%

If Orbit really wanted to rile Mike Trout up he should’ve posted a sign on his back that said “meteorology is dumb” or something.
4

9

5

7.9

9.1

8.9

.579

.574

46.0%

19.6%

65.6%

3.2%

8.2%

A deep Nationals rotation and potent lineup is hamstrung by a suspect bullpen. Where have we seen this before?
5

8

7

8.2

8.9

8.8

.570

.565

76.5%

8.9%

85.4%

3.4%

-0.4%

Kyle Hendricks walked Tommy Milone on four pitches yesterday, which is punishable by death under Commissioner Rob Manfred’s new Pace of Play Laws :(
6

7

7

8.7

9.1

8.7

.542

.547

9.6%

12.5%

22.0%

0.2%

-5.1%

Byron Buxton got more hype as a prospect, but it looks like Miguel Sano might be the true cornerstone of the next Twins team that’s good enough to go .500.
7

7

7

6.9

7.6

7.2

.541

.546

69.6%

11.5%

81.1%

0.0%

-1.0%

“I just don’t understand how a team with this much talent is only .500,” you think, completely neglecting to look in right or center field.
8

9

6

7.5

8.0

7.6

.539

.544

50.9%

18.6%

69.4%

-4.4%

12.7%

One imagines Marco Hernandez will feel honored by the shouts of “Free Hernandez” coming from drunk bleacher bros in Pats jerseys over the next three weeks.
9

8

8

8.1

8.4

9.1

.520

.524

18.4%

20.7%

39.1%

2.7%

-11.0%

“Tim Beckham has started so strong, it leaves the Rays with a hard decision to make once starter Matt Duffy returns,” says an article on Rays.com. Beckham is hitting .227/.244/.386.
10

8

7

8.0

7.4

7.3

.527

.522

40.0%

20.4%

60.3%

2.6%

-10.9%

“Duda, d’Arnaud leave with injuries,” says the Mets.com headline that could be from literally any point in time over the past three-or-so seasons.
11

9

6

9.6

8.9

8.5

.524

.519

4.1%

6.4%

10.5%

-1.2%

-2.9%

Drew Storen pitched the first immaculate inning of 2017 on Tuesday night, which is somehow still less remarkably than Cincinnati’s start to the season.
12

10

6

9.6

7.9

7.6

.520

.515

10.2%

24.7%

34.9%

-1.8%

5.5%

With 10 wins and tied for the NL West lead heading into Wednesday, the Diamondbacks are a bullpen away from challenging as 2017’s surprise team.
13

8

7

8.2

8.3

8.5

.515

.510

9.1%

13.0%

22.1%

-0.9%

1.7%

Ichiro Suzuki hit a homerun in his (probably) last-ever at-bat in Seattle. If George RR Martin was writing this ending Ichiro’s ACL would’ve exploded while rounding third.
14

9

4

7.2

6.0

5.9

.499

.504

7.7%

10.4%

18.1%

3.0%

5.5%

Chris Tillman is already making rehab starts in the minors, which means we’re just days away from him being miscast atop Baltimore’s rotation once more.
15

7

9

8.1

7.4

7.4

.495

.500

13.5%

23.7%

37.3%

3.1%

6.3%

You might think it odd that a team with playoff aspirations would already be resorting to gimmicks like “come eat our grasshoppers,” but with the Mariners, such distractions are a feature, not a bug. Wait.
16

7

8

6.6

9.0

8.6

.493

.498

2.8%

6.7%

9.4%

1.7%

-4.2%

Khris Davis hit his seventh homer of the season yesterday. We’re getting dangerously close to a future in which he is the better Khris/Chris Davis.
17

10

6

7.0

8.0

8.1

.500

.495

6.9%

20.9%

27.8%

-2.5%

10.8%

With 10 wins and tied for the NL West lead heading into Wednesday, the Rockies are a rotation away from challenging as 2017’s surprise team.
18

8

8

8.5

8.1

8.2

.494

.489

7.0%

9.8%

16.8%

-2.3%

-0.1%

The rebuilding Brewers lead the league in homers, doubles and total bases. Unfortunately they also lead the league in Brewers starting pitchers.
19

6

10

7.8

6.9

6.7

.485

.480

12.4%

28.2%

40.6%

-1.5%

-7.0%

Bruce Bochy sat out the Giants’ visit to Kansas City so that he could undergo a minor heart procedure designed to fix damage caused by years of watching his bullpens.
20

7

7

6.3

7.0

7.4

.472

.477

3.3%

5.4%

8.8%

2.7%

4.3%

Jason Vargas has thrown 14.2 consecutive scoreless innings in what's the surest sign yet that it's still April.
21

8

6

5.6

5.6

5.7

.468

.473

13.6%

17.2%

30.8%

-2.6%

-4.9%

Justin Verlander made light of talk about him tipping his pitches by tweeting out a photo of himself drinking in a pool, but historically, tip-related pictures have been a bit of a sore spot for him.
22

5

10

7.4

5.5

5.6

.460

.465

10.7%

18.3%

29.0%

-2.7%

-0.9%

There are aircraft carrier groups in the South Pacific that look less lost than the Rangers do right now. Apparently you can only be the #TeamofDestiny so often.
23

7

7

7.0

5.4

6.1

.455

.460

4.0%

5.7%

9.7%

-5.9%

-1.0%

Avisail Garcia is off to such a hot start he might find a way to get himself traded before Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier or David Robertson.
24

7

9

6.3

6.5

6.7

.446

.451

3.0%

7.3%

10.3%

-3.3%

-10.1%

It was thoughtful of the Angels to hold a team meeting the day after Easter, but the only thing likely to rise here is their team ERA.
25

6

9

5.8

6.1

6.2

.449

.444

7.7%

12.6%

20.3%

-1.6%

0.1%

Starling Marte is now the most famous suspended Pirate since Captain Kidd.
26

6

8

5.5

6.1

6.0

.446

.441

3.6%

5.5%

9.1%

-1.9%

0.5%

Julio Teheran is an excellent pitcher, but it might be time for him to give Bryce Harper the Barry Bonds Treatment. After hitting two homers last night, Harper is approximately 100-for-110 against him.
27

5

9

7.0

6.2

6.7

.443

.438

1.4%

2.2%

3.5%

-0.4%

-0.6%

The Phillies beat the Mets on Tuesday thanks in large part to an error by Jose Reyes, but before you feel too good about that make sure you take a thorough look at that ball’s past.
28

6

9

5.3

4.8

5.5

.421

.416

4.6%

8.3%

13.0%

1.7%

0.7%

The Cardinals threw it back to 2015 by having Trevor Rosenthal close out a game and actually, you know, winning.
29

3

11

4.9

4.1

4.1

.395

.400

3.4%

7.1%

10.5%

1.3%

-4.1%

Bill O’Reilly is having a better April than the Blue Jays, who currently have as many wins (3) as they’ve had injured 2016 All-Stars on the DL.
30

6

10

4.6

5.7

5.5

.385

.381

0.3%

1.4%

1.7%

0.3%

-3.3%

In pitching one-third of a flawless inning on Tuesday night, Erick Aybar made a strong case for joining the Padres rotation by June.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
mhmckay

RIP Aaron Hernandez. I love this column, but mocking a suicide isn't for me.

Apr 20, 2017 17:32 PM
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-2

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aikman72

I agree. Bad taste.

Apr 21, 2017 19:53 PM
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-2

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