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Prospectus Hit List for August 29



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for August 26
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Guaranteed gold.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

82

47

87.4

92.0

91.0

.683

.679

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

John Lackey: 19 home runs allowed, 43 walks, .217 opponents’ average, 3.41 ERA
Jon Lester: 19 home runs allowed, 45 walks, .217 opponents’ average, 2.70 ERA
2

75

55

79.3

82.5

81.7

.612

.608

98.9%

0.9%

99.8%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Ludicrously wicked cherry-picking parameters alert, but there have been four seasons since 1951 where a batter slugged over .600, struck out less than 10 percent of the time and had single-digit GIDPs: Daniel Murphy, and Barry Bonds three times.
3

72

58

76.1

79.9

80.3

.593

.598

35.8%

48.0%

83.7%

-2.9%

-5.7%

Dustin Pedroia recorded hits in 11 straight at bats, but not 12, which means the witch's curse on him to have the body of a groundhog will remain indefinite.
4

74

56

75.5

77.3

77.4

.585

.590

56.7%

36.3%

92.9%

3.9%

3.3%

Working theory: Josh "Bringer of Rain" Donaldson hits so many home runs and does induce rain, but he plays in a domed stadium so he's not aware that he has caused it to begin raining.
5

73

57

72.5

78.3

78.2

.581

.576

79.5%

18.1%

97.6%

1.5%

5.4%

Hear me out: convert Yasiel Puig into a reliever. It might not work, but it might not not work.
6

73

56

73.6

74.2

73.0

.569

.574

88.4%

6.1%

94.5%

-0.6%

-3.7%

Brandon Guyer has 63 career HBPs and 58 career walks. Boy, imagine how much better he'll feel when he learns what those white rectangles are for.
7

68

61

72.5

76.7

75.8

.568

.563

0.0%

57.3%

57.3%

-6.7%

-15.6%

It was perfectly reasonable for the Cardinals to ask Zach Duke to legally change his name to Randy Choate. They have unsold shirseys to move.
8

71

59

71.7

73.7

73.5

.558

.553

20.5%

60.0%

80.4%

8.9%

3.4%

The Giants had 18 hits yesterday, including two doubles, four triples, four home runs. In the anti-DH’s biggest loss of the season, Madison Bumgarner went hitless.
9

69

61

66.9

69.3

68.8

.527

.532

8.9%

24.9%

33.9%

-5.5%

7.0%

Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez were both ejected for arguing balls and strikes, which means the home plate umpire was the first umpire to clean up a game using One Hour Martinezing.
10

68

62

69.4

67.6

66.4

.522

.527

1.7%

17.0%

18.7%

-5.2%

2.9%

So, remember Evan Gattis' 11 triples last year? This year he's stuck at zero, mostly because teams are employing the "Gattis shift" by adding 15 more outfielders into the gaps.
11

68

62

68.8

66.7

66.3

.519

.524

2.6%

17.0%

19.7%

-4.1%

-26.5%

Mariners fans will have some explaining to do if they haven't already nicknamed Bill Altavilla "The Search Engine."
12

77

54

66.0

63.1

63.2

.514

.519

95.6%

2.6%

98.2%

1.5%

3.2%

What if I told you the Rangers were getting partial seasons of Darvish, Choo, Fielder, Profar and your team was still the bee’s knees? The correct answer: it must be the 1940s, and I’ve got some bad news for you about the Washington Senators. Well, two pieces of bad news, actually.
13

71

59

66.1

64.1

65.1

.512

.517

6.5%

31.9%

38.5%

9.2%

10.1%

On Saturday Julio Borbon was added to the roster, went 2-for-4, then was designated for assignment. I guess the Orioles didn't care for that particular shot of Borbon.
14

67

62

63.5

65.2

66.4

.508

.513

1.0%

6.4%

7.5%

-1.8%

3.1%

In less than a month of major league playing time, Gary Sanchez has as many career home runs (11) as Otis Nixon and one more than Ruben Tejada.
15

67

63

66.2

67.3

66.4

.513

.508

0.5%

17.9%

18.3%

-5.0%

-12.7%

Kyle Barraclough has just been putting up donuts on the scoreboard, which ... close enough.
16

66

64

65.2

66.7

67.1

.510

.505

0.6%

21.4%

22.1%

-6.3%

8.7%

New York won the Little League World Series, so by regional proxy the pressure is off the Mets to repeat winning their pennant.
17

62

68

66.1

66.6

66.7

.503

.498

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.4%

-1.0%

The Rockies were looking for a situation to get Matt Carasiti and his 12.27 ERA into a game. They scored five runs in the 11th inning, so that did the trick.
18

67

61

65.4

60.6

60.9

.496

.491

0.0%

23.6%

23.6%

7.2%

12.0%

Remember when the Pirates were rump-awful in Miller Park since 2005 (17-61)? So of course they four-game swept the Brewers on the road. Just 13 more sweeps like that and they'll get to .500 in that timeframe.
19

68

62

63.0

59.9

60.5

.483

.488

2.5%

9.3%

11.8%

5.5%

6.1%

The Royals will never consider Yordano Ventura to be the ace of the pitching staff. They just won't be able to withstand the pun headlines.
20

55

74

62.8

64.9

66.3

.482

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rays are running Brad Miller out at first base every day, just to see if I would notice. It worked.
21

63

66

61.1

59.6

60.3

.473

.478

0.2%

0.4%

0.7%

0.1%

0.2%

The White Sox stadium will be known as Guaranteed Rate Field through 2030, at which point the White Sox will draft high school shortstop Guaranteed Ratefield number one overall.
22

56

74

61.4

54.6

55.9

.438

.443

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Can an MVP play for a last place team? It depends on if this is a rhetorical question regarding Mike Trout, or a request.
23

57

73

55.6

54.8

55.3

.428

.433

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's fine if Ryon Healy wants to spell his name like that, but most certainly it can't be for a team called the A's.
24

56

74

56.2

54.7

53.7

.424

.419

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Here’s a list of everyone currently on the Brewers with at least ten home runs: one-year, $2.5 million deal; Ryan Braun; waiver claim; waiver claim; acquisition for non prospect; someone named “Scooter.”
25

49

81

53.3

55.4

55.5

.410

.415

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It took seven years but former first round draft pick Alex Wimmers finally reached the major leagues. In the Twins bullpen on a bad season. Not all good stories have happy endings.
26

55

75

58.3

52.1

52.1

.418

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yangervis Solarte had a rough week. He logged online and saw all the Stranger Things spoilers. Also he reached base twice in 21 plate appearances.
27

55

76

52.7

54.0

55.0

.413

.409

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Give Paul Goldschmidt the day off, and of course the Diamondbacks score 11 runs. Coincidence? What if I told you "Goldschmidt" has [record stops] 11 letters?
28

60

70

50.3

48.6

48.5

.399

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Phillies ERA by month:
April: 3.79
May: 3.92
June: 5.34
July: 4.12
August: 5.91
September: the numerical equivalent for “frowny face.”
29

55

74

53.7

47.0

47.8

.395

.390

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

According to Play Index, Saturday was the first time the Reds threw a complete game shutout and hit five home runs in the same game. Just as we all thought, 2016 is the best season in Reds history.
30

48

83

48.2

52.7

52.6

.384

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Atlanta copyeditors have replaced "lorem ipsum" as their dummy filler text with "Freddie Freeman Homers In Loss," just in case it accidentally gets through.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


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