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Prospectus Hit List for May 4



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for May 1
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

There's a man going 'round taking names, and he decides who to free and who to blame.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

16

8

15.7

17.1

16.6

.641

.623

85.5%

10.2%

95.7%

1.1%

1.8%

Well, I guess we know what Joc Pederson was in high school.
2

18

7

16.4

18.1

18.0

.591

.610

36.6%

16.5%

53.0%

3.3%

24.9%

Tomorrow on Yardwork Prospectus: how to fertilize your backyard with your unused Astros jokes.
3

16

9

17.2

18.4

17.9

.574

.594

20.0%

13.2%

33.2%

-2.7%

7.0%

The new royal baby is already projecting to be a speedy fourth outfielder for Kansas City in 2040.
4

16

9

15.8

16.3

16.6

.571

.590

27.8%

24.3%

52.1%

6.8%

17.8%

Bonds, Aaron, Ruth and Mays all hit their 660th home run hitting fourth or higher (Ruth, probably). Alex Rodriguez hit his 660th pinch hitting and batting seventh.
5

18

6

17.0

15.9

14.9

.609

.590

65.1%

18.8%

84.0%

2.4%

1.5%

Extra-inning times call for extra-inning measures, and pinch-hitting with Seth Maness is no better example.
6

17

9

14.1

16.3

16.5

.561

.581

61.5%

10.1%

71.7%

2.8%

3.3%

Joakim Soria is a perfect 10-for-10 on saves, which means the team finally found that leprechaun and turned him into the authorities, or perhaps RoboCop.
7

13

12

12.1

14.2

14.8

.540

.559

29.7%

26.7%

56.4%

-2.8%

-6.1%

The Rays' plan for winning the AL East is to get all five teams into one of those cartoon fistfight clouds then nonchalantly crawl out of it and into the playoffs.
8

11

15

14.8

14.7

14.7

.524

.544

13.2%

11.6%

24.8%

2.9%

-2.0%

Stephen Vogt might be an All-Star this year. Now all the team needs is a catchy campaign slogan... I got it! "Choose Stephen."
9

12

11

12.7

13.3

13.4

.519

.539

7.6%

12.9%

20.5%

2.7%

4.8%

Steve Pearce, who has never played second base, is now playing second base, because Delmon Young at second base would cause too many fans to perish laughing.
10

12

13

11.4

12.0

12.4

.512

.532

28.0%

25.2%

53.2%

-3.3%

-12.2%

Our new pitching metric is less than a week old and it accurately reflects the Red Sox starting rotation DRA as "three monkey frowny face emojis"
11

13

10

12.2

13.7

13.5

.551

.531

24.5%

31.3%

55.7%

-3.7%

2.0%

How does Phil Coke post an ERA over six and a FIP under two? It's this new sweetener they're using.
12

16

10

15.2

13.5

13.5

.533

.513

33.8%

19.1%

52.9%

-3.2%

-8.1%

It took them 19 games to lose five times; it took another six games to lose another five. So goes the concept of transcendental Metsism.
13

11

14

11.8

9.6

9.7

.487

.507

31.4%

15.3%

46.7%

-5.2%

-15.4%

Jered Weaver was never really a strikeout pitcher, and with a K/9 rate under four this year, he's just trying to emphasize that.
14

12

13

14.1

15.1

14.3

.525

.505

11.3%

10.7%

22.1%

-3.6%

1.5%

At long last, brothers Donovan and Jhonatan Solano played in the same lineup. Now to create the latest baseball meme, "Y'all gonna make me lose my mind, Solano here, Solano here."
15

12

14

12.3

12.5

12.0

.522

.502

52.6%

16.4%

69.0%

2.7%

8.3%

The Nationals have only scored two runs in the last two games. Fortunately they won both games. Overspend for pitching, kids.
16

12

14

13.5

10.9

11.1

.478

.498

6.9%

13.3%

20.2%

-2.6%

-3.1%

The struggling Dalton Pompey was sent to Triple-A because, not unlike those ancient survivors of Pompeii, they aren't just going to wait around for him to erupt.
17

12

13

14.4

13.2

13.0

.517

.497

7.9%

18.6%

26.4%

-3.4%

-7.9%

Jung Ho Kang hit 40 home runs in Korea last year, and hit his first MLB one yesterday, so he's still on pace to match that given the league's new 1,000-game season.
18

14

12

14.2

12.1

12.6

.517

.497

8.5%

32.8%

41.3%

3.3%

-2.5%

It's amazing they ever win at home on Sundays while wearing those camouflage alternates, given how fatigued they are.
19

10

15

9.7

10.1

10.6

.468

.488

16.1%

12.3%

28.4%

-3.8%

-4.6%

Since 2009, only three other sluggers have more home runs than Nelson Cruz, but it's close. Imagine that three more things that just barely go over Nelson Cruz.
20

9

15

10.2

10.6

10.9

.457

.477

7.6%

6.4%

14.0%

1.6%

-2.4%

They outrighted Jerry Sands (and his .345 batting average) then broke out for 10 runs yesterday. The evidence against Sands stealing hits from the rest of the team keeps piling up.
21

13

12

12.4

10.7

11.0

.456

.476

5.1%

4.0%

9.1%

2.3%

3.5%

Thirty-one runs in a four-game series is pretty snazzy for them, considering it took them their first 11 games to score that many.
22

12

13

9.9

11.7

11.4

.485

.465

5.1%

23.9%

29.0%

4.9%

9.6%

The last three times a Giants pitcher reached base three times in a game were all Tim Lincecum. What's more astounding is that there are three Tim Lincecums out there.
23

12

13

11.6

12.2

12.1

.469

.449

1.8%

5.7%

7.6%

-1.0%

-0.7%

Several Cincinnati families saved money on their utility bills last month by heating their homes with alternative sources, primarily burning unsent Joey Votto hate mail.
24

8

16

9.0

8.1

7.8

.414

.433

2.7%

2.5%

5.2%

-0.3%

-3.7%

Their first baseman stole a base! No, not him. It was Kyle Blanks. Still, though.
25

10

14

11.9

10.4

10.6

.448

.428

0.3%

2.4%

2.7%

-0.7%

-0.7%

After 10 seasons in the minors, 30-year-old Danny Dorn got his first major league hit. Two days later he entered the game as a pinch-hitter then was pulled for a different pinch-hitter.
26

8

14

6.9

6.8

7.3

.409

.428

5.7%

5.8%

11.5%

-1.7%

-12.0%

Rodon! Apply directly to the rotation. Rodon! Apply directly to the rotation. Rodon! Apply directly to the rotation.
27

12

13

11.8

11.0

10.7

.446

.427

1.9%

2.7%

4.6%

1.0%

-1.1%

And Kelly Johnson laughed when his fortune cookie said "You will lead the team in home runs in May, and also a white lie is like a dying orchid."
28

11

13

8.9

10.1

9.7

.434

.414

0.5%

4.1%

4.6%

-0.4%

-3.7%

The Rockies had two players hit two home runs each and they still lost, which is a feat the Rockies franchise has always referred to as "Sunday."
29

7

18

8.1

7.1

7.7

.397

.378

0.7%

3.1%

3.8%

0.6%

0.3%

It's May third, and the Brewers have their first two-game winning streak of the season.
30

9

17

7.3

7.5

7.8

.363

.344

0.4%

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

-0.2%

Vote Domonic Brown for the All-Star Game! He's currently in Triple-A, so that's one surefire way to get back to the big leagues.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
LoyalRoyal

Vogt. Well played.

May 04, 2015 09:24 AM
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sbnirish77

"Our new pitching metric is less than a week old and it accurately reflects the Red Sox starting rotation DRA as "three monkey frowny face emojis""

We don't need any new pitching metric to tell us how bad Red Sox pitching has been and how good that of the Astros has been ... and how wrong BP has been regarding both teams in their preseason analysis.

May 04, 2015 14:20 PM
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