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Prospectus Hit List for May 22



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for May 20
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Engage.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

24

16

25.3

27.9

26.9

.617

.598

78.2%

13.7%

91.9%

-2.0%

-3.4%

This team is in such great shape, and yet in three years they'll still be paying Erisbel Arruebarrena. And in four years, Matt Kemp.
2

26

14

26.8

26.9

26.8

.559

.579

33.1%

20.8%

53.9%

1.5%

9.4%

They're even underperforming their pythag, folks. There are whole grain silos stockpiled full of karma in the Kansas-Missouri area and this team's just cashing them all the hell in.
3

25

17

22.8

25.2

25.4

.546

.566

45.5%

19.4%

64.9%

2.7%

-3.9%

This is probably a misprint, but the Tigers have the best bullpen ERA in the month of May. Someone may have forgotten to carry the one, or add a one in the front.
4

23

19

23.5

24.3

24.0

.540

.560

32.9%

18.6%

51.6%

4.3%

-2.5%

They might be leading the AL East, but they'd be fourth in the AL Central, so count their lucky geographical stars.
5

27

14

27.0

24.4

24.0

.578

.559

64.7%

21.7%

86.4%

-2.1%

-1.5%

Jaime Garcia made his first MLB start since undergoing thoracic outlet surgery, where they removed a bone in his body. Apparently that bone also provided his run support.
6

27

15

24.1

24.9

25.0

.538

.558

37.1%

21.3%

58.4%

-3.5%

10.6%

Only 14 strikeouts for the lineup yesterday. They clearly have cut back from a pack a day.
7

24

17

23.3

23.4

22.7

.569

.549

73.5%

13.2%

86.7%

-1.1%

10.9%

See, Bryce Harper usually ejects baseballs out of the ballpark, so my how les tableaus have turned.
8

22

19

21.8

23.1

23.9

.525

.545

26.5%

16.2%

42.6%

0.4%

-7.4%

That 2-7 road trip was brutal. You can't take Yankee legend statues with you. Not without breaking them up into luggage-sized pieces, at least.
9

21

20

20.4

18.6

19.0

.518

.538

39.2%

18.9%

58.1%

-3.0%

1.8%

Batting Marc Krauss ahead of Mike Trout, according to the definition of the world, is absolutely a strategy.
10

23

17

20.3

22.8

21.9

.543

.523

29.9%

37.5%

67.5%

6.0%

8.8%

Home runs by Kris Bryant AND Addison Russell in the same game? Previously this only existed in Cubs fanfiction, and fortunately the real version is G-rated.
11

18

22

18.2

18.7

19.0

.500

.520

17.9%

15.7%

33.6%

-1.1%

1.8%

Having an RBI on your first day as a Mariner always makes a first impression, but Welington Castillo was caught off guard when asked about his favorite Pearl Jam song.
12

23

18

21.7

22.5

22.4

.535

.515

15.6%

36.5%

52.1%

3.9%

24.6%

Madison Bumgarner proved we don't need a DH because he hit a home run off Clayton Kershaw, bumping his batting average all the way to .368. Sorry, never mind, that's his OPS.
13

18

20

19.5

19.6

19.5

.493

.513

8.5%

7.7%

16.2%

2.3%

0.0%

Steve Pearce hitting a grand slam proves, once again, Steve Pearce is still very much a thing and the rabbits Baltimore pull out of their hats lead strange but long lives. Also, the rabbits wear hats that have pictures of birds wearing hats.
14

17

23

18.4

20.4

20.7

.493

.513

8.4%

10.4%

18.8%

3.4%

7.2%

LeBron James may have never played professional baseball, but Corey Kluber could still strike him out 95 percent of the time and that is so badass.
15

19

22

16.7

18.1

18.4

.493

.513

24.8%

15.2%

39.9%

-6.7%

-9.3%

The three team leaders in slugging percentage are Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz, and a combination of Brock Holt standing on Dustin Pedroia's shoulders in a trenchcoat.
16

19

24

23.0

20.1

20.2

.489

.509

7.3%

7.6%

14.9%

1.0%

-6.5%

It's not often someone throws a complete game allowing four runs, but R.A. Dickey had to cover while the rest of the bullpen snuck out to watch Mad Max.
17

14

29

20.0

22.4

22.6

.483

.503

1.4%

1.8%

3.2%

-1.5%

-8.6%

Ron Washington is back with the organization and has already helped Marcus Semien improve his defense. For one, he's positioning him better, namely having him face the batter during the at bat rather than toward the outfield.
18

24

18

23.0

20.7

20.7

.519

.499

23.2%

28.0%

51.2%

3.8%

1.4%

Why is Bartolo Colon more popular than Jacob deGrom? Because you can't GIF eight innings of one-hit, 11-strikeout ball without buying a terrabyte of hard drive space.
19

18

23

18.6

18.2

18.6

.470

.490

4.4%

6.0%

10.4%

1.6%

0.4%

Despite being the team leader in HBPs, Rougned Odor was sent to Triple-A anyway last week to presumably work on not standing on home plate while batting.
20

23

17

20.6

16.6

17.6

.463

.483

6.5%

11.4%

17.9%

1.0%

6.6%

Seven losses to the Tigers, 10 losses to everyone else. The 2014 Royals also couldn't beat the Tigers, which logically means the 2015 Twins are going to the World Series.
21

18

22

21.1

20.1

19.7

.502

.482

4.3%

13.3%

17.6%

-1.0%

-6.3%

They've played six extra-inning games and lost them all, because while the pace of play has picked up in the league, scurvy still acts faster.
22

18

20

15.3

14.7

15.1

.454

.474

6.5%

9.0%

15.5%

-2.3%

0.2%

He may be walking too many batters and letting baserunners roam free, Carlos Rodon is just trying to fit in.
23

20

22

19.1

16.6

17.1

.480

.460

4.8%

17.3%

22.1%

-5.7%

-17.3%

Since Odrisamer Despaigne was moved back to the rotation, he's made three starts and his team has been outscored 24-0.
24

16

26

19.1

20.5

20.6

.477

.457

2.0%

4.1%

6.0%

-2.0%

-15.1%

J.C. Realmuto for my sham friends, J.C. Shammuto for my real friends.
25

19

21

21.3

19.8

19.4

.476

.456

1.0%

3.8%

4.9%

0.1%

1.2%

The Diamondbacks stole seven bases in a game for the first time in franchise history against a catcher not named Mike Piazza.
26

20

20

20.5

18.3

17.8

.457

.437

1.2%

3.7%

4.9%

0.7%

3.3%

For his next trick, Andrelton Simmons will turn a beautiful double play that he also hit into.
27

18

22

17.0

18.3

18.1

.454

.434

0.7%

3.6%

4.2%

-0.2%

-5.3%

Well, of *course* Jason Marquis is going to lose to the Royals. They outrank him.
28

15

23

14.4

14.9

14.7

.423

.403

0.3%

1.4%

1.7%

0.1%

-0.1%

Berg is German for "mountain," so naturally the bullpen has a Bergman and an Oberg. But no Kerry Ligtenberg. Yet.
29

15

27

14.8

13.9

14.3

.422

.402

0.4%

1.9%

2.3%

-0.6%

-1.3%

Will Smith was ejected for a foreign substance on his arm, so he's going to lay low with his aunt and uncle in Bel Air.
30

18

25

15.1

16.5

16.2

.398

.379

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

-0.1%

0.2%

Started from the bottom, now we're ... a day later in the season.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
rnolty

Aunt and Uncle in Bel Air. I get it.

May 22, 2015 15:54 PM
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