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Prospectus Hit List for April 20



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for April 17
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Finally, a Hit List that led to nobody getting ejected.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

10

2

9.3

10.3

9.9

.668

.685

62.4%

10.9%

73.3%

2.3%

7.1%

Their only two losses have been Anibal Sanchez starts in which he allowed multiple home runs. Doctor, I think we located the source
2

9

3

7.7

8.9

9.0

.662

.644

83.7%

11.0%

94.8%

0.7%

6.3%

<-- has not signed a Cuban ballplayer in over a week, are they okay
3

9

3

8.8

9.5

9.3

.607

.626

14.0%

11.4%

25.4%

3.4%

1.6%

Herrera claims the pitch "slipped" when the 100 mph fastball went behind Brett Lawrie, but the odds we believe Kelvin are absolutely zero.
4

8

3

8.0

7.4

6.8

.618

.599

60.4%

17.5%

77.9%

2.4%

7.7%

The Cardinals won on Sunday Night in a crisp 2:02, prompting ESPN to never again show National League baseball.
5

6

7

9.0

9.1

9.1

.577

.597

19.5%

15.5%

35.0%

-1.0%

3.1%

Why can't this team share *good* blood with their opponent? Is it because their fans bleed green and gold?
6

7

5

6.8

7.6

7.6

.542

.561

9.4%

14.0%

23.4%

4.4%

4.6%

Buck Showalter batted Jimmy Paredes second as the designated hitter, who went 3-for-5 with three runs, Nuts to your lineup construction theories.
7

7

5

5.9

6.2

6.3

.539

.559

44.9%

22.5%

67.4%

-2.9%

-1.4%

Imagine David Ortiz running the Boston Marathon. It's one way to extend it to a two-day event.
8

10

3

8.4

7.4

7.2

.569

.550

33.8%

22.1%

55.9%

2.7%

17.9%

They won their eighth straight but lost two players to broken bones; better get Benny Agbayani on retainer just in case.
9

6

6

6.8

6.8

7.0

.522

.542

10.2%

14.2%

24.4%

3.4%

8.3%

Alex Rodriguez rootability status: still a positive antihero, but pump the brakes because a 50-homer season will put you right back on the naughty list.
10

8

5

7.8

7.2

7.5

.556

.536

12.0%

38.5%

50.5%

3.8%

4.8%

It took two weeks into the season but the team have finally memorized everyone's name. Except for Jedd Gyorko's.
11

6

5

5.7

6.4

6.6

.543

.523

22.1%

24.4%

46.5%

-5.8%

0.7%

Relax, Cubs fans. Henry Rowengartner's debut was also forgettable, like Kris Bryant's.
12

6

7

5.2

6.6

6.5

.503

.523

26.0%

24.3%

50.3%

-3.9%

-3.8%

Getting swept by the Yankees and a healthy Alex Rodriguez; ah, just like old times.
13

6

7

6.6

6.8

6.3

.535

.515

56.4%

19.2%

75.6%

2.1%

0.1%

Jayson Werth started slow, but given what happened this offseason can you really blame him for being cautious?
14

6

7

7.4

5.9

6.2

.495

.515

9.5%

14.7%

24.2%

-2.3%

-7.8%

Jeff Francis became the latest Canadian to play for Toronto, which is surprising, because the hockey playoffs are going on and I imagined Canadians took this time off from sports as a religious holiday.
15

6

6

7.1

6.8

6.3

.526

.506

11.6%

16.8%

28.4%

2.5%

2.8%

It's like, how much more black could the Pirates' matte helmets be, and the answer is none more black.
16

5

7

4.5

5.3

5.5

.477

.497

26.2%

17.1%

43.3%

2.5%

-2.3%

Strange but true: there have been several at bats by Nelson Cruz that were not home runs.
17

5

7

5.2

4.3

4.3

.477

.497

43.1%

17.9%

60.9%

-5.4%

-0.6%

There is probably no out clause in Josh Hamilton's contract if Mike Trout became the youngest player to hit 100 homers and steal 100 bases, but it never hurts to look.
18

6

6

5.2

5.9

5.6

.475

.495

6.4%

9.1%

15.5%

2.0%

1.4%

If the Astros were fans of astrophysics, they could teach the theory of interia using Evan Gattis plate appearances.
19

8

4

7.1

6.7

6.5

.511

.491

3.5%

5.6%

9.1%

2.0%

-1.9%

If Andrelton Simmons is looking for endorsements, might I suggest Roomba. He goes from room to room, picking up dirt, throwing it back perfectly at the owner regardless of what room he's in.
20

7

5

6.7

6.2

6.0

.495

.475

1.1%

7.6%

8.8%

-1.3%

-0.6%

"You won't see a better defensive play all week," the announcers said during Nolan Arenado's leaping catch over the tarp, in a clip of MLB Network's #2 Play of the Week.
21

7

6

7.7

5.8

6.0

.478

.458

0.9%

5.0%

5.9%

-0.2%

1.1%

Don't misinterpret this: Chip Hale has the D'backs playing well, but chip hale is the least likely type of precipitation to delay a Diamondbacks game.
22

4

7

4.2

4.2

4.3

.434

.454

10.2%

9.6%

19.7%

-3.2%

-5.9%

T.J. House and hits 14.14 ERA should be featured on an upcoming HGTV renovation show.
23

4

7

4.0

3.7

4.1

.424

.443

11.0%

9.7%

20.7%

-0.6%

-0.6%

Terrific sleight of hand by the White Sox to wait until the Kris Bryant/service time kerfuffle hit a critical mass, then call up Carlos Rodon.
24

5

8

5.0

3.7

3.8

.407

.426

4.9%

6.2%

11.1%

-0.1%

-5.0%

Late to the idea, but save it in the rolodex for next April 15: change the Texas uniforms to read "TAXES" on the front, to remind fans both of Jackie Robinson and not to forget to file.
25

5

7

4.4

4.4

4.9

.428

.409

3.1%

6.0%

9.1%

-0.8%

-5.1%

Brennan Boesch spelled Billy Hamilton in center field yesterday. It's the biggest dropoff in Cincinnati history since the Ohio-Kentucky border.
26

3

10

4.9

5.2

5.4

.427

.408

5.8%

7.2%

13.0%

-1.6%

-7.8%

Their expected win total based on runs scored is 5-8, but Pythagoras never cared for loud colors.
27

4

10

4.0

5.4

5.0

.423

.403

2.3%

13.1%

15.3%

-3.7%

-17.0%

Having lost 9 of their last 10, it's almost as if it's a year not divisible by two. Ah, but trick question: technically they all are.
28

5

7

3.8

3.2

3.6

.383

.402

2.3%

3.1%

5.4%

1.5%

1.3%

Don't look now but the punchline Twins have won two straight series. Which is incredible; they've already met their quota for the first half.
29

4

9

3.6

3.7

3.8

.354

.336

0.5%

0.6%

1.1%

-0.6%

-1.8%

If any team can finish sixth, they'll find a way.
30

2

10

2.4

2.2

2.6

.344

.326

2.8%

5.4%

8.3%

-2.0%

-7.4%

If things could get any worse for the Brewers, it did this weekend: MLB Network aired "Mr. 3000."

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
Schere

Jimmy Paredes is a better hitter than you seem to think! He's just a bit of a tweener - not enough power to be a DH, or even a corner OF, and seems to be a terrible defender. But he can hit, he's hit everywhere except his two atrocious partial major league seasons in Houston.

Apr 20, 2015 07:53 AM
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DetroitDale

here's hoping Anibal gets right before Big Pasta goes cold

Apr 20, 2015 08:14 AM
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