Quantcast

Prospectus Hit List for April 17



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 15
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

This is a very good Hit List.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

8

1

7.7

8.4

8.1

.702

.718

61.0%

10.9%

72.0%

0.3%

16.0%

Alfredo Simon gave up two hits over eight innings on Wednesday, making us nerds everywhere question statistical analysis. Then Harold Reynolds explained StatCast and we all got back on the bandwagon.
2

7

2

7.1

7.7

7.5

.633

.651

12.3%

9.7%

22.0%

-1.9%

5.0%

Giving up eight runs to the Twins isn’t good, but last year’s World Series team gave up 10 runs to the Twins three times, so it could be worse. For example, Bruce Chen could still be on the roster.
3

5

5

7.3

7.4

7.1

.592

.612

20.7%

16.7%

37.4%

1.4%

2.3%

The A’s: 1) have scored 56 runs while giving up 33, 2) are 5-5, and are 3) in first place. Early-season baseball yes please!
4

6

3

5.0

5.5

5.3

.577

.597

47.1%

23.8%

71.0%

-2.0%

6.6%

Sure, the Red Sox need an ace, but after the most recent turn through the rotation, what they really need is a Tylenol.
5

6

3

4.8

5.9

5.8

.613

.594

79.5%

12.6%

92.1%

-0.4%

2.3%

If you only count his extra-base hits, Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .306.
6

5

3

5.3

5.6

5.3

.608

.589

51.5%

18.6%

70.1%

1.4%

3.4%

The Cardinals are a lot like their logo. The bird is on the bat and that makes sense and the bat is on the C and that makes sense, but what the heck is holding up the C?
7

6

4

5.0

6.4

6.3

.566

.585

32.1%

29.3%

61.4%

3.6%

11.4%

Chris Archer is now David Price which will probably upset the Tigers a bit.
8

7

2

6.7

6.4

6.4

.594

.574

2.4%

10.2%

12.6%

-0.2%

3.1%

Holds Update Now: The Rockies lead baseball in holds with 14, which certainly frees them up to trade Troy Tulowitzki.
9

5

3

4.6

4.8

5.1

.568

.548

28.7%

24.8%

53.6%

4.1%

9.5%

The Cubs are raising the prices of their beers by $2 now that each beer comes with a combination cup and urinal.
10

7

3

6.3

5.7

5.6

.560

.540

27.2%

18.8%

46.0%

1.7%

4.7%

Curtis Granderson has twice as many walks as hits, giving him a slash line of .185/.405/.185, the most M.C. Escher of slash lines.
11

6

4

6.0

5.9

5.9

.559

.539

12.7%

34.1%

46.8%

-1.1%

11.1%

So far this season a full 22 percent fewer of Padres fans than last season want the team “fired into the sun,” though it is early so small sample size issues are possible.
12

5

4

4.6

5.2

5.2

.517

.537

5.8%

11.7%

17.5%

-0.9%

-2.7%

Embracing their roster, the Orioles’ starting rotation have taken to playing their pre-game poker without aces. Or Jacks.
13

5

5

6.2

4.5

4.7

.504

.524

9.5%

17.5%

26.9%

-2.7%

-3.3%

You could set your clock by Jose Reyes injuries but you could also injure Jose Reyes by setting your clock so you’d better not.
14

4

5

3.9

3.3

3.2

.482

.502

48.2%

17.5%

65.7%

0.8%

-6.3%

The Angels should not have to pay Josh Hamilton $83 million! I mean, come on, people! It’s not like they signed him to a legally binding contract!
15

6

3

5.3

5.1

5.0

.515

.495

3.2%

4.6%

7.7%

-0.5%

-0.9%

The Braves are planning a new stadium in downtown Atlanta after the lease on the yet-to-be-built stadium in Cobb County expires. The team is also laying the groundwork for a return to Milwaukee in 2045.
16

3

6

4.1

4.1

4.2

.462

.482

5.5%

10.6%

16.1%

0.4%

-3.2%

Shortstop Didi Gregorius is hitting .172/.219/.172 with bad defense. It’s… [wipes tear] it’s almost like He never left.
17

4

6

4.4

4.4

4.3

.499

.479

59.9%

15.9%

75.8%

2.6%

-0.7%

The Nationals have only grounded into three double plays, but they’re hitting .212 with a .281 on-base percentage as a team so they’re kinda cheating.
18

4

5

3.4

4.0

3.9

.452

.472

5.7%

7.6%

13.3%

-0.0%

1.4%

If the season ended today, the Astros, who are a half-game behind Oakland in the AL West, would be confused. “What happened to the season,” they would ask.
19

3

5

3.2

3.1

3.3

.441

.461

13.1%

9.7%

22.8%

1.6%

-15.8%

Carlos Carrasco is feeling better after taking a line drive to the face, a thing that would be much easier to joke about if Carrasco had been terrible this year and also not a person.
20

3

6

2.9

2.8

3.0

.428

.447

21.2%

17.9%

39.1%

-0.7%

-3.4%

Nelson Cruz has more homers in the past five games than the Twins, Brewers, Marlins, Cardinals, and Indians each have all season.
21

3

6

4.4

3.8

3.9

.461

.441

9.0%

13.8%

22.8%

1.1%

0.3%

When Francisco Cervelli is your best, you’re either a monk, an expensive pizza restaurant in New York, or the Pittsburgh Pirates. Also the pizza place went out of business.
22

4

6

3.5

3.0

3.1

.410

.430

4.2%

6.1%

10.3%

-0.2%

-7.0%

Somewhere Ron Washington is sitting in a rocking chair, nodding vigorously, and repeating, “It’s extremely hard” to nobody over and over.
23

5

4

4.0

3.1

3.3

.448

.428

5.4%

8.4%

13.9%

0.1%

-2.3%

You wouldn’t think there’d be another Jason Marquis good enough to pitch in the majors but lousy enough to not be good at it but apparently what the Reds lack in an analytics department they make up for in private investigation.
24

3

8

3.7

4.9

4.7

.444

.424

4.6%

14.9%

19.5%

-3.5%

-22.9%

Madison Bumgarner gave up two runs. Nice try, Madison, but you’re a day late. This performance will go on next year’s taxes.
25

3

5

2.4

2.4

2.4

.404

.424

11.1%

8.6%

19.7%

-1.2%

-0.2%

So far only Kyle Drabek and Zach Putnum have ERAs over 12.00, so that must feel weird.
26

5

5

5.1

3.4

3.6

.437

.417

0.8%

4.0%

4.8%

0.5%

0.7%

Those in the Diamondbacks marketing department responsible for “LA Dodgers Jersey Night” at Chase Field have been fired.
27

3

7

4.0

3.9

4.2

.437

.417

9.0%

10.3%

19.4%

-2.9%

-3.5%

The good news for the Marlins is Giancarlo Stanton hit his first homer of the season. The bad news is everything else.
28

3

6

2.1

1.7

2.2

.344

.363

2.4%

2.3%

4.8%

1.4%

-0.8%

The Twins are 1-3 in games decided by five or more runs, but 0-1 in one-run games so unlucky!
29

2

7

1.9

2.0

2.3

.361

.343

5.3%

8.4%

13.7%

-2.8%

-4.0%

If you go by FIP the Brewers rotation has been eh but if you go by ERA it’s been BLLLEEAAARRG! Jimmy Nelson has been [cheers] though.
30

3

7

2.8

3.1

3.2

.359

.341

0.7%

0.6%

1.3%

-0.0%

-0.7%

After five runs and four walks in six innings, this would appear to be a tough stretch for Cole Hamels except for a short note that appeared in the GM’s office after the game that said, “let’s see you trade me now, sucker.”

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
sandyk

Thanks for the laughs this morning, Matthew! The Yankees comment especially had me snorting.

Apr 17, 2015 08:57 AM
up_image

+4

down_image
 
oldbopper

Matthew was kind enough not to mention Gregorius's attempted steal of 3rd or his holding on to the ball as Hanigan lumbered home.

Apr 17, 2015 10:11 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Shaun P.

My personal favorite for today's was, "“What happened to the season,” they would ask." Or maybe the Hamels comment in the Phillies comment.

And I think the Angels comment was perfect.

Apr 17, 2015 09:16 AM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.
<< Previous Article
BP Wrigleyville (04/17)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (04/15)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Going Yard: Quick Hits... (04/17)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Painting the Black: Pedro Alvarez's Trip Fro...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, Apri...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: April 17, 2015
Going Yard: How Bryant Can Crush
The Call-Up: Kris Bryant
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: So You Want to Trade Your Draft...
BP Boston

MORE FROM APRIL 17, 2015 10:04 AM
Premium Article Going Yard: Quick Hits: Forrest Wall
BP Wrigleyville
Fantasy Rounders: Rookie Distractions
Fantasy Article Deep League Report: Week Two
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 51
Fantasy Article The Quinton: Early-Season Trades: Pros and C...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week Three

MORE BY MATTHEW KORY
2015-04-18 - BP Boston
2015-04-17 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 17
2015-04-13 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 13
2015-04-08 - The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, April 8
2014-09-29 - The Prospectus Hit List: The Greatest Hits L...
More...

MORE THE PROSPECTUS HIT LIST
2015-04-17 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 17
2015-04-15 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, April 15
2015-04-13 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 13
2015-04-10 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 10
More...