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Prospectus Hit List for September 22



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 19
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Don't worry, Braves Fans. Don't worry. That's it. There no pain, it's over, it's over.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

96

60

93.7

96.6

95.4

.612

.631

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Four times up yesterday, four times on-base. If Mike Trout were as good at defense and baserunning as he is at hitting, heÖ uh. Oh.
2

85

70

94.2

93.1

92.8

.589

.608

0.0%

94.9%

94.9%

3.8%

-3.5%

Josh Donaldsonís homer was enough for the Aís to hold on to the Wild Card and ignore the giant Cubs-uniform-wearing elephant in the room for one more day.
3

93

62

90.5

87.9

87.7

.579

.599

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Orioles win their last seven games they'll reach 100 wins for the first time since 1980.
4

91

64

92.4

93.0

91.9

.594

.575

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If Nationals fans still don't want Stephen Strasburg on the mound in a postseason game I suggest they get their heads out of their spreadsheets and watch a game.
5

83

72

88.6

84.1

84.0

.548

.568

0.0%

20.7%

20.7%

-21.5%

-10.3%

Before he arrived there were concerns about Austin Jackson fitting in, but now that heís hitting .242/.278/.278 any concerns have evaporated.
6

86

69

83.6

84.6

83.7

.545

.565

93.2%

6.4%

99.6%

-0.0%

2.7%

The Tigers have won Kyle Lobsteinís last four starts but itís possible thatís less because heís pitched well and more because hitting while laughing because youíre facing a pitcher named ďLobsteinĒ is very difficult.
7

89

67

87.5

92.1

90.3

.575

.555

98.7%

1.3%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If Clayton Kershaw can pitch every inning off every game, well, you gotta like the Dodgers' chances to seriously injure Clayton Kershaw.
8

75

81

78.6

85.1

84.9

.519

.539

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Starter Nate Karns or Nate Kams depending on your font gave up three homers to the White Sox so you probably wonít have to worry about your font issue too much longer.
9

81

74

79.4

79.6

78.1

.513

.533

0.2%

15.3%

15.5%

4.9%

10.2%

2014 Corey Kluber has been worth 230 percent of 2011 Corey Kluber, 2012 Corey Kluber, and 2013 Corey Kluber, says WARP and the American Beard Institute.
10

78

77

79.3

79.0

78.6

.508

.528

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-2.8%

In 20 starts Marcus Stroman has been more valuable than R.A. Dickey and J.A. Happ have been combined in their 56 combined starts. The lesson: good pitchers donít use initials.
11

84

71

83.0

86.1

86.4

.548

.528

4.5%

94.7%

99.2%

5.2%

26.1%

Three more wins and Pittsburgh wonít have to pay attention to that awful whiner Sidney Crosby for another week Just three wins for the Pirates to lock up a playoff spot yay!
12

84

70

78.8

73.8

74.1

.504

.524

6.6%

62.5%

69.2%

12.9%

4.2%

Ned Yost will always trade checkers even if he only has one left because thatís just how things are done.
13

84

71

83.5

85.4

84.3

.544

.524

1.3%

97.6%

98.9%

0.1%

0.3%

Jake Peavy gave up 20 home runs in 124 innings with Boston. In 66 innings with San Francisco, heís given up two. Iíll take Random Variation And League Factors for $200, Alex!
14

87

69

79.4

82.4

81.8

.530

.510

95.5%

4.5%

100.0%

0.0%

1.1%

The Cardinals are in the postseason and if my calculations are correct, theyíll play either the 49ers or the University of Oregon.
15

80

75

74.0

73.0

73.7

.485

.505

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.0%

-0.5%

Brett Gardner's homer was the 15,000 in Yankee history, and the 14,207th since the New Yankee Stadium opened three seasons ago.
16

80

76

77.6

77.8

77.4

.501

.481

0.0%

1.9%

1.9%

-5.3%

-22.9%

In the last month and two days, the Brewers have gone 11-21 and lost 10 games in the standings. So, uh, go Packers! [checks standings] Never mind.
17

69

87

68.9

70.8

72.9

.451

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In China it is the year of the Horse. In Houston itís the year of the Altuve. Also the year of not signing their first round pick, but yeah, anyway, Altuve!
18

71

84

68.2

68.6

68.4

.446

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The 10 runs and three homers from the White Sox are just the things to create some momentum for the 2015 postseason which starts in only 12 1/2 months. Hope they can maintain it!
19

76

80

79.0

73.7

73.4

.484

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You say the Mets offense hasn't shown up this season but I say they're fashionably late.
20

66

89

70.0

69.1

69.3

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Do you think Kennys Vargas ever gets together with Kendrys Morales and they swap extraneous Sís to see if anybody can tell?
21

76

79

75.2

74.0

73.9

.482

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-4.6%

The Braves were officially eliminated from postseason play by a bunch of Dutch guys in Mets uniforms. Somehow fitting and somehow huh?
22

68

88

67.4

69.2

70.4

.441

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Red Sox fans will need to come up with a more inventive cheer for Mookie Betts than "Mooooo!" which sounds like a cow is hitting. Mookie is not a cow. I've seen video.
23

74

81

74.0

73.9

73.4

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since Giancarlo Stanton was injured in September 11, the Marlins have averaged 2.7 runs per game, and thatís not counting the time Billy the Marlin got food poisoning.
24

72

84

75.5

70.7

71.6

.465

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Two homers by Jay Bruce, one by Todd Frazier, and a well pitched game from Alfredo Simon. For one night, the universe opened up to show what was possible, then it all disappeared back into the cornfield.
25

74

81

72.8

68.4

69.4

.459

.439

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You may think the Padres camo jerseys are bad, but thatís not bad. When 2015 comes and the field at Petco Park is a forest with live dear roaming around, thatíll be bad.
26

69

87

67.8

74.0

74.6

.457

.438

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you don't think the Cubs can win next season, maybe you're one of those people called a historian.
27

65

91

72.8

74.3

69.7

.452

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Reports indicate the Rockies are considering giving up baseball and going back to being just a mountain range.
28

71

85

71.0

68.9

70.4

.451

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Looking to next season, the PhilliesÖ ugh. Looking to two seasons from now, the PhilliesÖ
29

62

93

63.2

60.0

62.9

.400

.420

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rangers have shut down Alex Rios, making him functionally very much like the rest of the roster.
30

62

94

64.1

64.0

64.2

.407

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Two homers for Mark Trumbo, giving him 11 on the year and reading a bit like an apology. Itís not your fault, Mark. Well, mostly not.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
newsense

Was the Braves comment a reference to the Dutch buying Manhattan from the Indians?

Sep 22, 2014 10:03 AM
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0

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markedits

Live dear what roaming around?

Sep 22, 2014 14:36 PM
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0

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Dave from Pittsburgh

whoa new comment system

Sep 22, 2014 15:06 PM
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0

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StefanAFrisch

Several chuckles today. Finishing strong!

Sep 22, 2014 18:09 PM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Trying! Thanks!

Sep 22, 2014 18:14 PM
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0

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