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Prospectus Hit List for September 12



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 10
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's Feiday, Freiday, only jokes about Nate Freiman day

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

91

55

88.9

91.3

90.3

.619

.638

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Is David Freese really having a better season than Mike Trout? If you look at the numbers, it's actually… PSYCH!
2

81

65

90.5

89.2

89.2

.599

.618

0.0%

92.6%

92.6%

-2.4%

-4.7%

If Jed Lowrie hadn’t singled twice the A’s would have had one hit and the game would’ve been the quickest the A’s played this season. [shakes fist] LOWRIE!
3

86

59

83.0

81.0

81.2

.571

.590

99.9%

0.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

By WARP, Delmon Young has been as valuable as Matt Wieters and more valuable than Chris Davis.
4

79

66

85.0

81.0

80.1

.560

.580

0.0%

35.4%

35.4%

1.8%

-12.2%

The Mariners are 17-18 against last place teams because not only is Seattle talented, but they feel pity.
5

83

62

85.0

84.9

84.1

.581

.561

99.7%

0.2%

100.0%

0.1%

0.1%

The Nationals had six walks and only five strikeouts against Mets pitching last night and now you’re asking if one of those pitchers was Daisuke Matsuzaka and yes how did you know?
6

80

66

77.9

79.3

78.5

.541

.560

57.1%

23.2%

80.2%

0.4%

2.7%

The good news: Justin Verlander’s FIP is a full run lower than his ERA. The bad news: well, you know.
7

83

63

81.3

86.0

83.7

.572

.552

72.8%

27.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.6%

Don Mattingly doesn’t want to bench Yasiel Puig because after Puig Mattingly becomes the clear target for reporters looking for someone to accuse of ruining baseball (or at least the Dodgers).
8

81

65

81.6

83.5

82.6

.563

.543

27.2%

71.7%

98.9%

0.1%

7.9%

Doctors have cleared Brandon Belt to begin baseball activities and MLB.com headline writers to begin crafting awful puns.
9

76

69

76.0

75.8

75.2

.522

.542

0.1%

4.6%

4.6%

-0.3%

2.0%

This could be a big offseason for Toronto, which will need to find another starting-quality center fielder to bench.
10

70

77

74.1

80.1

80.2

.518

.538

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Going into the eighth inning, Rays pitching hadn’t given up a hit. Rays fans curious about the outcome of the game should probably stop right there.
11

76

69

74.0

74.3

72.9

.513

.532

5.1%

10.7%

15.8%

8.5%

9.5%

If Dr. Emmett Brown shows up in his flying DeLorean, go back to last April 2014 and put your life savings down on Corey Kluber placing in the Cy Young vote.
12

80

65

74.8

69.1

69.6

.506

.526

37.8%

30.8%

68.7%

-9.3%

3.7%

Against everyone but Boston, the Royals have a .571 winning percentage. Against the last place Red Sox, the Royals have a .000 winning percentage.
13

77

69

76.1

79.3

79.8

.535

.515

12.6%

49.1%

61.8%

3.5%

38.9%

As Andrew McCutchen proved, baseball is the only sport where someone can stay inside a park and still run home.
14

75

69

69.4

68.1

68.6

.488

.508

0.0%

2.6%

2.6%

1.3%

-1.2%

Mark Teixeira leads the Yankees with 21 homers, but Brian McCann is only three away from xeiring the lead.
15

80

67

73.7

76.8

76.4

.522

.502

84.8%

10.5%

95.2%

-2.5%

0.7%

“Lance Lynn’s strikeout rate is down over last year and his walk rate is the same yet his ERA is down over a run so I’m not sure this is sustainable,” is something you shouldn’t ever say in a St. Louis bar.
16

75

71

74.0

73.1

73.0

.505

.485

0.3%

22.7%

22.9%

-4.6%

-25.7%

B.J. Upton’s OPS is up 60 points over last season! It’s a shame last season was so awful.
17

76

71

73.1

73.1

72.6

.501

.481

2.6%

18.4%

21.0%

4.2%

-21.9%

Matt Clark has three career hits, two of them are home runs against the Marlins. Sorry, Matt, but the fish statue doesn't go off unless you're a Marlin.
18

65

81

63.9

65.0

66.8

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jose Altuve’s 200 hits are 26 more than any other player. [short joke]
19

64

83

64.5

66.0

67.1

.445

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

David Ortiz doesn’t like playing for a losing team, but if he’d just stop complaining and hit like .700 with a million home runs he wouldn’t be.
20

71

74

70.7

69.8

69.2

.484

.464

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.7%

-0.4%

Giancarlo Stanton’s season has been worth 8.0 WARP, 3.3 more than the entire Marlins pitching staff.
21

62

84

66.3

65.4

65.5

.444

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If a complete game shutout on fewer than 100 pitches is a Maddux, then throwing three innings with two homers allowed and no strikeouts is a Kyle Gibson.
22

66

80

63.3

64.1

64.0

.441

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Good pitching beats good hitting as long as good pitching is Chris Sale.
23

71

76

73.2

68.3

68.1

.477

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Mets GM Sandy Alderson has said the team won’t spend much this offseason. Assume he means not counting lawyer fees.
24

70

77

72.7

67.9

68.7

.475

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Aroldis Chapman has a 17.6 K/9 rate yet the most hitters he’s ever struck out in a game this season is four.
25

64

82

63.9

69.7

69.9

.458

.438

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs are 64-82, though if they hadn’t played Nate Schierholtz at all they’d be 65.3-80.7.
26

67

79

66.3

65.3

66.8

.454

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Ryan Howard had two strikeouts in two at-bats, two walks, two runners left on, and is now hitting .222. On the year he’s been worth -0.2 WARP!
27

67

78

66.7

60.8

61.8

.442

.422

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

The Padres shouldn’t move their fences in so much as replace them with an alligator-filled moat. Alligator-filled moat = attendance spike!
28

59

87

65.2

67.7

63.8

.438

.418

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies are…. You know what? I don’t want to write this comment and you don’t want to read it.
29

54

92

55.8

53.9

56.5

.377

.396

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you simulated 10,000 2014 Rangers seasons and ranked them best-to-worst, this season would fall off the bottom of the spreadsheet.
30

59

87

60.5

61.1

60.9

.414

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Despite not having played since the trade deadline, there’s a good chance that by season’s end Paul Goldschmidt will have twice as many WARP as any other Diamondback.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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