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Unfortunately, Passed Balls or Wild Pitches Above Average would be quite a mouthful. Again, we're trying out a new term to see if it is easier to communicate these concepts. We're going to call these events Errant Pitches. The statistic that compares pitchers and catchers in these events is called Errant Pitches Above Average, or EPAA.

(from http://bbp.cx/a/26195)

Under baseball’s scoring rules, a wild pitch is assigned when a pitcher throws a pitch that is deemed too difficult for a catcher to control with ordinary effort, thereby allowing a baserunner (including a batter, on a third strike) to advance a base. A passed ball is assigned when a pitcher throws a pitch that a catcher ought to have controlled with ordinary effort, but which nonetheless gets away, also allowing a baserunner to move up a base. The difference between a wild pitch and a passed ball, like that of the “earned” run, is at the discretion of the official scorer. Because there can be inconsistency in applying these categories, we prefer to consider them together.

Last year, Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis introduced a regressed probabilistic model that combined Harry’s pitch classifications from PitchInfo with a With or Without You (WOWY) approach. RPM-WOWY measured pitchers and catchers on the number and quality of passed balls or wild pitches (PBWP) experienced while they were involved in the game.

Not surprisingly, we have updated this approach to a mixed model as well. Unfortunately, Passed Balls or Wild Pitches Above Average would be quite a mouthful. Again, we’re trying out a new term to see if it is easier to communicate these concepts. We’re going to call these events Errant Pitches. The statistic that compares pitchers and catchers in these events is called Errant Pitches Above Average, or EPAA.

Unfortunately, the mixed model only works for us from 2008 forward, which is when PITCHf/x data became available. Before that time, we will rely solely on WOWY to measure PBWP, which is when pitch counts were first tracked officially. For the time being, we won’t calculate EPAA before 1988 at all, and it will not play a role in calculating pitcher DRA for those seasons.

But, from 2008 through 2014, and going forward, here are the factors that EPAA considers:

  • The identity of the pitcher;
  • The identity of the catcher;
  • The likelihood of the pitch being an Errant Pitch, based on location and type of pitch, courtesy of PitchInfo classifications.

Errant Pitches, as you can see, has a much smaller list of relevant factors than our other statistics.

In 2014, the pitchers with the best (most negative) EPAA scores were:

Name

Errant Pitches Above Average (EPAA)

Carlos Carrasco

-0.405%

Ronald Belisario

-0.403%

Jesse Chavez

-0.392%

Clay Buchholz

-0.380%

Felix Doubront

-0.378%

Daisuke Matsuzaka

-0.375%

And the pitchers our model said were most likely to generate a troublesome pitch were:

Name

Errant Pitches Above Average (EPAA)

Masahiro Tanaka

+0.611%

Jon Lester

+0.541%

Matt Garza

+0.042%

Dallas Keuchel

+0.334%

Drew Hutchison

+0.327%

Trevor Cahill

+0.317%

t want to add a new term.

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