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10-Year Forecast

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The 10-Year Forecast is a player's weighted mean PECOTA forecast, taken over his next 10 seasons.

The process for generating a player's weighted mean line for a season some number of years into the future (e.g. 2014) is fundamentally identical to generating his forecast for the season immediately upcoming (e.g. 2012). The exception is that some players may have dropped out of the comparables database, in which case their performance cannot be considered. (See also Jeremy Giambi Effect).

Note that the Ten-Year Forecast assumes that a player's team context remains the same for all years of the forecast.

10-Year Forecast appears in the following BP Glossary Categories:

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