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Five-Year Performance

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The Five-Year Performance forecast measures a hitter's forecast EqA or a pitcher's EqERA at various percentiles (90th, 75th, 60th, 50th, 40th, 25th and 10th) over the course of the next five seasons. The percentile forecasts are indicated by solid lines, usually in BLUE, except for his median/50th percentile forecast which is indicated in RED. Also listed is the player's weighted mean forecast in that category, indicated with a dashed YELLOW line.

Unlike the Five-Year WARP forecast, the Performance forecast has no convenient way to adjust for dropped comparables, and so it simply ignores them. For this reason, the Performance forecast may be misleading for players whose comparables have a high attrition rate. (See also Jeremy Giambi Effect).

Five-Year Performance appears in the following BP Glossary Categories:

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