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Career Path Analysis is the name for a chart on a player's PECOTA card. The solid, curved lines represent a player's VORP at his 90th, 75th, 60th, 50th (Median), 40th, 25th and 10th percentile levels of performance over the course of his next five seasons. All of these lines appear in BLUE, except for a player's Median/50th percentile forecast, which appears in RED.
The dashed YELLOW line represents a player's Weighted Mean VORP forecast. Because of the Jeremy Giambi Effect (the correlation between quality of performance and playing time), the Weighted Mean forecast line will usually be somewhat more favorable than the Median forecast line, particularly for players with highly volatile forecasts (lots of 'upside').
Note that players who drop out of a player's comparables set are represented on the Career Path Anaylsis chart as having a VORP of 0.
Career Path Analysis appears in the following BP Glossary Categories: