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The Percentile Forecast is a representation of the player's expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability.
For example, if a pitcher's 75th percentile ERA forecast is 3.50, this indicates that he has a 75 percent chance to post an ERA of 3.50 or higher, and a 25 percent chance to post an ERA lower than 3.50. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes.
The Percentile Forecast is calibrated off two key statistics: TAv for hitters, and ERA for pitchers (although the ERA is a component ERA, and thus will not reflect the variance of sequencing in a player's performance).
PECOTA runs a series of regressions within the set of comparable data in order to estimate how changes in peripheral statistics are related to changes in equivalent runs. For example, if it first estimates that Carl Crawford will produce a .290 TAv next year, it then tries to determine what home run total, walk total, and so on are most likely to be associated with a .290 TAv season.
PECOTA then iterates this result to ensure that the peripheral statistics 'add up' to the right calibrating statistic (TAv or ERA). It is important to note that the Percentile Forecast is designed to work around the calibrating statistic only.
A player's forecast is adjusted to the park and league context associated with the team listed at the top of the forecast page. Team dependant stats like Wins, RBIs, and BABIP account for the projected performance level of a player's teammates
PECOTA forecasts playing time (plate appearances) in addition to a player's rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a player's previous record of performance, and the comparable player data, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions.
Percentile Forecast appears in the following BP Glossary Categories: