Glossary: Playoff Odds Report
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To find Adj. Playoff Pct, we multiply the team's Wild Card percentage by the odds of them winning the Wild Card play-in game, and add the odds of them winning their division.
For the preseason Playoff Odds Report, this is based on the Depth Chart wins and losses. As the season progresses, a team's observed performance will be incorporated into the expectation as well.
The percentage of times a team makes the playoffs - either through winning their division or their league's Wild Card - in the simulated seasons.
For instance, the default view of Team Audit is sorted by GB ascending and grouped by division. In this view, the division leaders will all rank 1, second place teams will rank 2, etc. Any teams that have the same values on the sort column will have the same Rnk.
To quickly find a team's rank in any stat, sort by that stat and refer to this column. For example, if you wanted to determine where the Padres ranked in RS/G in all of MLB, sort by the RS/G header, set your grouping to MLB, and refer to this column.
The average number of end-of-season losses in the simulated seasons. For in-season playoff odds, this number includes a team's actual losses along with the average number of losses from simulating the remainder of the season.
The average number of end-of-season wins in the simulated seasons. For in-season playoff odds, this number includes a team's actual wins along with the average number of wins from simulating the remainder of the season.
The percentage of times a team wins one of the two Wild Cards in the simulated seasons.
In order to figure the WS Win Pct, we use the odds ratio to figure out a team's expected win percentage in various playoff rounds, and then use the binomial probability mass function to find the odds of winning a five or seven game series as appropriate.