Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs | CL | Under Contract | Staying on in the Ninth

We know that at an auction table, there is a finite number of dollars that can be spent to acquire talent. What we do not know is how many players will go on to produce positive dollar values for our teams or how many players will have a chance to contribute. For any of us that have been playing this game for awhile, we know just how volatile each position can be from year to year. Yet, knowing what total or percentage of players at each position end up contributing can help you set your benchmarks for your cheatsheets at a draft. In a standard 15-team mixed league draft, you know that there will be 135 pitchers taken, and it is your job to either project which guys will be the ones you and your opponents will be purchasing as pitchers you feel will have positive value.

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Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins
Shallow: NO
Medium: BORDERLINE
Deep: YES
NL-only: YES
Super Deep: YES

Again, it is extremely difficult for this author to remain completely objective when it comes to Ramirez, who is perhaps the face of the (soon-to-be Miami) Marlins franchise. Ramirez's performance in 2010 was disconcerting but still well in the range of excellence for shortstops. Ramirez's 2011 performance, on the other hand, was an abject disaster. Not only did he post his worst batting line by far (.243/.333/.379), but he did so while suffering through his most injury-riddled year ever after going through two seasons of creeping minor injuries.

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Rumors abound that Yu Darvish, perhaps the most hyped player to come from Japan since Daisuke Matsuzaka, will be posted by his Nippon Pro Baseball team this winter. If that happens, Major League Baseball teams will have the right to bid on exclusive negotiating rights with Darvish in the hopes of securing his services for their rotation. This possibility has the blogosphere abuzz, with many a writer speculating on where he’ll end up or how he’ll fit in with a blogger’s favorite team.

But the big question on everyone’s mind is how much of this buzz is merely hype and how much is legitimate. As Michael Street has shown, Japanese pitchers (particularly starters) have a very spotty track record when they come across the Pacific, and even a guy like Matsuzaka only managed one above-average season before giving way to injuries and ineffectiveness.

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Tough keeper decisions can come down to a number of concerns. Was the off-year due to aging, bad luck, or skill erosion? Can a player recover from injury? Will he continue to start or shift into a platoon? Is this young hitter for real? Sometimes, a more important question to ask is, “How will other owners assess his 2012 value?” Even when a player is expected to rebound, it might be wiser to cut him loose and rely on the short-sightedness of other owners to deflate his draft day price. Any gap between real and perceived value is worth exploiting, and I’ll look at all of those questions in this week’s column, headed by one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of 2011.

As always, please leave suggestions for other players you’d like to read about in the comments section.

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It was reported by SI’s Jon Heyman early yesterday on Twitter that the Tigers are expected to pick up the $9M option on Jose Valverde to return as the closer for the club in 2012 after converting all 49 of his save opportunities in 2011. The immediate I-hate-closers-in-fantasy-baseball guy in my brain immediately screamed, “Why??!!” Admittedly though, it does not help that I closely follow a team (the Rays) that has spent as much on their primary closer over the past seven seasons as the Yankees and Red Sox have spent to pay their closer for just this past season.

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Once again, today’s list of starters is entirely generated from your requests, and I’ve tried to hit a few new teams that don’t get much discussion around here. Keep ‘em coming!

Bud Norris | Houston Astros
Shallow: NO
Medium: NO
Deep: BORDERLINE
NL-only: YES
Super Deep: YES

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Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins | RP | Free Agent | Taking Less to Close?

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Yet another week passes with more potential keeper names for The Keeper Reaper to examine. The season is winding down just as the offseason for keeper league owners is heating up. Here again are the format categories that we are considering, for reference:

Shallow (10-team mixed, 3 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6431
Medium (12-team mixed, 4 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6430
Deep (15-team mixed, 6 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6432
NL-Only (12-team NL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6435
AL-Only (12-team AL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6434
Super Deep (20-team mixed, 10 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6433

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For a baseball season which threatened to have about as little drama as an episode of Emeril Live until the final week, the high drama continues in a hotly contested World Series.  For some leagues, keeper decisions need to be made by the time dessert is finished in the season, and so the other 28 teams get some attention before trading begins in earnest.  Whether a deadline looms or not, keeper advice can help make a team into a dynasty.

Shallow (10-team mixed, 3 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6431
Medium (12-team mixed, 4 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6430
Deep (15-team mixed, 6 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6432
NL-Only (12-team NL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6435
AL-Only (12-team AL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6434
Super Deep (20-team mixed, 10 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6433

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James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | Under Contract | Shields for Morrison?

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That loosely translated scene from Brokeback Mountain accurately describes my relationship with Ricky Nolasco since the start of the 2008 season. My relationship with Nolasco began in the 2008 NL Tout Wars season when I acquired him in an afterthought of a trade early in the season. I had FAAB’d Manny Acosta the first week of the season on a speculative $1 bid, and he ended up picking up two quick saves by mid-April. Another owner in the league put out a note asking for saves, and at the time, I did not need Acosta as I already had two other closers. I was, however, in need of starting pitching. He had Nolasco on his bench as he had made just two starts that season. When I offered Acosta for Nolasco, the reply was, “Why the hell not. It’s just Ricky Nolasco.” Needless to say, Nolasco won 14 games for me, helped in every category, and was a big part of my 2^nd place finish that season while Acosta went on to collect just one more save the entire rest of the year.

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