Last Update: 08-09
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This roster is so loaded that this is going to be a fascinating spring. First of all, once the season gets rolling we're going to see a Joyce/Kapler platoon in right, barring injury to one of those two guys. However, Joyce will have to have an excellent spring to make the opening day roster, because the team will be carrying twelve pitchers (again, barring injury). Wheeler, Balfour, Nelson, Howell, and Shouse have to be givens; Bradford as well as long as he doesn't get traded, and Percival will be in St. Pete for as long as management can't find an excuse to put him on the DL, thanks to his contract and leadership. On the bench, Riggans and Aybar seem to be the only sure bets. One would have to imagine that Zobrist will be there, so that leaves two roster slots for Joyce, Kapler, Gross, and Perez. We can immediately rule out Perez. However, it still means that we'd have to see a very poor spring from Gross and/or a great spring for Joyce in order for Joyce to make the team, because management simply will not disrespect Gross after all he did for the team last year. Again, it should be a great spring in Port Charlotte. Cormier, Salas, and Rodriguez (Rule V Pick) should all push the relievers; Niemann, Hammel, and even Talbot and Davis will challenge Price, and of course there will be a competitive battle in the outfield.
Salas out; Isringhausen in. Competition within the pen is going to be merciless.
how come pecota projects the rays to win 92 games, but if you add up the pitcher win/loss totals it projects them as going 97-84 (playing a 181 game season?)
I'm not quite sure that the depth chart is correct. James Houser seems to be at least 5th on the list for who will get a spot start or five. If Price starts the season in AAA, Niemann or Hammel are likely to win the 5th starter slot. In the event of an injury, the two who lost the battle would be next in line. Beyond that, you have Wade Davis and Mitch Talbot in AAA, both of whom are notionally competing for the 5th starter slot in ST. I would be beyond shocked if Houser saw the majors beyond a Sept. cup of coffee, if at all. Similarly, because of how strongly JP Howell performed in 2008, he's unlikely to be used as a spot starter, particularly if both Niemann and Hammel are on the roster. If one of them is traded, I suppose it becomes incrementally more likely, but 6 games appears to be a pretty high projection. Brian Shouse will be used as a lefty specialist, not in long relief. Fernando Perez is the backup centerfielder for anything but an emergency situation or late game substitution reasons (also unlikely); I don't think Gross will wind up with 15% of the CF at-bats (although I'm amused that PECOTA has found at least one Rays player it likes). Gabe Kapler is the most likely other half of Gabe Gross's platoon, barring an amazing spring from Matt Joyce. Joyce will most likely open in AAA. Lineup-wise, BJ Upton seems to be the current favorite to lead off. Joe Maddon has said that Carl Crawford will be hitting second, so I'd reverse the top two. Obviously that won't have much (any?) effect on the net projections.
Good points. There has been little talk about significant playing time for Joyce. RF should be Gabe, Gabe and the occasional mystery fielder. This should mean an extra win (or 2?) for the Rays. The number one question for these sets of predictions: is Upton underrated because PECOTA doesn't include underweighting for an injured season. Finally, as RaysIndex.com is suggesting - Garza is prime for some problems this season. PECOTA appears to suggest more than poor performance. Injuries?
With Niemann's body type, is he suited for working out of the pen? One commentator (it might have been K Goldstein) has said that JN has trouble warming up quickly with his somewhat doughy frame and it is difficult for him to be effective out of the pen.
I would say with that Pecota of 72 K's in 45 innings that Niemann could pitch wherever and whenever he wants. Yeah...I think there needs to be a correction on that one.
He has 72 Ks in 95 innings; a quirky way the charts go, if a player has time at two positions (reliever and starter), the innings (or plate appearances) will read just for that postion, but everything else will carry the total of all spots. That's also why the wins and losses didn't add up to 162 on an earlier post; he double-counted pitchers.
Milkmoney: the system shows Niemann with 45 IP as a spot starter and 50 IP in relief, so it's projecting those 72 Ks in 95 total innings. That seems reasonable.
Ahhhh...I see now. Now THAT makes a little more sense. My apologies for not looking harder at it.
Currently, the Rays are projected to play RF only 85% of the time.
And LF only 90% of the time. Seems like a lot of time to be playing the 5-infielder emergency lineup.
Is the missing OF time caused by a lack of Zobrist? He's shown at SS only (unlikely), and only 10% of the time (also unlikely). Giving him 10% of the LF time and 15% of the RF time might be closer to reality.
Actually it was Joyce who was hung up. I inadvertently typed his name as "Jouce".
How does Price's projection and the overall projection change since we know that Price will not be the 5th starter now?
It's pretty apparent that the system has no idea how to deal with B.J. Upton. His 2007 and 2008 playoff power isn't represented by PECOTA at all. I wonder if the Rays don't get much more value out of Upton with 30-35 HR instead of 15? Does that seem reasonable if he gets 550 PA?
Niemann will start now that Hammels' commodities have been re-invested in Coors. BP's projection for spot starts still looks good since Niemann will front-load his starts & could easily be forced into the pen when Price gets furloughed from TB's "Longoria" brand futures vault. Niemann may get more starts than expected, but 95 total IP still seems like a good investment. Davenport strikes again, but AIG gets all the bonuses! Doesn't seem fair.