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Cubs Team Audit page | Cubs PECOTA card page


Last Team Totals Update: 04-28    Dates reflect only changes to playing time, not PECOTA changes.

Record: 81-60
Runs Scored: 668
Runs Allowed: 561
AVG/OBP/SLG (TAv): .249/.326/.419 (.267)
Total WARP: 37.6 (15.0 pitching, 22.6 non-pitching, including 0.0 from pitchers)

Player projections represent rest-of-season only, not including games already played.

Position Players

Last Position Player Update: 04-22  Display By Fielding Position Display By Batting Order

Player Position Summary

Albert Almora: CF 30% (167 PA), PH 20% (49 PA)
Javier Baez: 3B 20% (115 PA), 2B 20% (115 PA), SS 15% (88 PA), PH 25% (61 PA)
Kris Bryant: 3B 70% (452 PA), LF 10% (62 PA), 1B 5% (31 PA)
Jeimer Candelario: 3B 10% (55 PA), 1B 5% (27 PA), PH 10% (24 PA)
Victor Caratini: C 5% (27 PA)
Willson Contreras: C 75% (447 PA)
Jason Heyward: RF 80% (469 PA), CF 10% (57 PA)
Jon Jay: CF 55% (322 PA), LF 10% (55 PA)
Tommy La Stella: 2B 10% (59 PA), PH 15% (36 PA)
Miguel Montero: C 20% (117 PA), PH 10% (24 PA)
Anthony Rizzo: 1B 90% (568 PA)
Addison Russell: SS 85% (517 PA)
Kyle Schwarber: LF 80% (530 PA)
Matt Szczur: PH 20% (49 PA), RF 5% (29 PA), CF 5% (27 PA)
Ben Zobrist: 2B 70% (432 PA), RF 15% (95 PA)

Pitchers

Last Pitcher Update: 04-22

Pos Name IP GS QS ERA WHIP BABIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP WARP
Sta-1 Jon Lester 175 25 14 3.60 1.17 .288 154 52 20 178 13 8 0 22.8 2.5
Sta-2 Jake Arrieta 174 26 15 3.33 1.14 .276 141 64 15 173 14 7 0 28.0 3.1
Sta-3 John Lackey 174 26 14 3.81 1.21 .283 157 56 21 157 13 8 0 18.5 2.0
Sta-4 Kyle Hendricks 142 25 14 3.64 1.18 .284 129 42 15 124 10 7 0 17.8 2.0
Sta-5 Brett Anderson 74 14 7 4.21 1.40 .299 78 25 8 53 5 4 0 4.5 0.5
Spot Aaron Brooks 32 6 3 4.03 1.34 .297 33 9 4 24 2 2 0 2.6 0.3
Spot Pierce Johnson 5 1 0 4.57 1.45 .294 5 3 1 4 0 0 0 0.1 0.0
Spot Eddie Butler 20 4 2 4.51 1.35 .291 21 7 2 12 1 1 0 0.5 0.1
Spot Alec Mills 27 3 2 3.94 1.34 .296 26 9 3 21 2 1 0 2.2 0.2
Spot Rob Zastryzny 27 3 1 4.72 1.48 .295 28 12 3 19 2 2 0 0.2 0.0
Closer Wade Davis 46 0 0 2.66 1.16 .290 36 18 4 56 3 2 35 8.7 1.0
Setup Koji Uehara 35 0 0 3.99 1.12 .279 30 10 6 41 2 2 3 2.1 0.2
Setup Carl Edwards Jr 43 0 0 3.25 1.20 .274 32 20 3 46 2 2 0 5.2 0.6
Mid Brian Duensing 27 0 0 5.25 1.48 .295 29 11 4 19 1 1 0 -1.2 -0.1
Mid Pedro Strop 39 0 0 3.18 1.16 .281 30 16 4 45 2 2 0 5.1 0.6
Mid Hector Rondon 46 0 0 3.42 1.20 .288 41 14 5 46 2 2 0 5.1 0.6
Mid Jose Rosario 8 0 0 5.13 1.61 .298 9 4 1 5 0 0 0 -0.2 0.0
Mid Felix Pena 16 0 0 3.80 1.30 .291 14 7 2 15 1 1 0 1.2 0.1
Mid Jake Buchanan 19 0 0 3.94 1.36 .294 20 7 1 12 1 1 0 1.2 0.1
Mid Justin Grimm 43 0 0 3.20 1.30 .296 37 19 3 46 2 2 0 5.5 0.6
Mid Jack Leathersich 12 0 0 4.74 1.55 .303 11 6 2 11 0 1 0 0.0 0.0
Long Mike Montgomery 73 8 4 3.94 1.31 .287 68 29 7 60 4 4 0 5.7 0.6

Your comments and suggested changes are appreciated! Click here to send comments or depth chart changes.



5 comments have been left for this report.

BP Comment Quick Links

OnTilt
(42149)

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a>? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> and .440 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a> in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 06:39 AM
rating: 0
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Well that was obnoxious with your site attempting to embed links. Here it without those keywords.

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 FR-AA? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 On Base and .440 Slugging in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher WA-RP with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

*I have since looked it up on his player card. Contreras with a -9 FR-AA? So he'll be one of the worst defensive catchers in the league? Your own metric had him at +3.6 last year in half the time. That doesn't pass the smell test.

*Regression for Russell and Baez as well in FR-AA?

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 07:03 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

Hi there - thanks for the feedback!

I found a typo in the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a> code for catchers, and Contreras wasn't using the most recent projections. Correcting for that added about 13 runs to his projected FRAA. re: his apparent decline - his minor-league values were pretty bad - see 2015 in Tennessee and 2016 in Iowa.

The rest of the Cubs have decent FRAA projections.

Feb 07, 2017 08:40 AM
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Thanks, glad I could help.

I understand that he had some poor fielding numbers in the minors and, even though his fielding seemed to be very good now that he's worked at it, it will take some time for that to flow through to a quantitative method like this since it needs to show up in the data.

When you said it added 13 runs to his FR-AA did you mean it went up from -21 to -8? Or is it going up from -8 to +5? His player card still shows -8 for his 2017 projection.

Feb 07, 2017 08:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

-21 to -8. He's still projecting as being bad at framing, though that could change.

Feb 07, 2017 09:17 AM
 
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