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Cubs Team Audit page | Cubs PECOTA card page


Last Team Totals Update: 05-27    Dates reflect only changes to playing time, not PECOTA changes.

Record: 65-50
Runs Scored: 538
Runs Allowed: 465
AVG/OBP/SLG (TAv): .247/.324/.415 (.265)
Total WARP: 29.3 (11.8 pitching, 17.5 non-pitching, including 0.0 from pitchers)

Player projections represent rest-of-season only, not including games already played.

Position Players

Last Position Player Update: 04-22  Display By Fielding Position Display By Batting Order

Player Position Summary

Albert Almora: CF 30% (136 PA), PH 20% (40 PA)
Javier Baez: 2B 20% (94 PA), 3B 20% (93 PA), SS 15% (72 PA), PH 25% (50 PA)
Kris Bryant: 3B 70% (369 PA), LF 10% (50 PA), 1B 5% (25 PA)
Jeimer Candelario: 3B 10% (44 PA), 1B 5% (22 PA), PH 10% (20 PA)
Victor Caratini: C 5% (22 PA)
Willson Contreras: C 75% (365 PA)
Jason Heyward: RF 80% (383 PA), CF 10% (47 PA)
Jon Jay: CF 55% (263 PA), LF 10% (44 PA)
Tommy La Stella: 2B 10% (48 PA), PH 15% (30 PA)
Miguel Montero: C 20% (96 PA), PH 10% (20 PA)
Anthony Rizzo: 1B 90% (464 PA)
Addison Russell: SS 85% (421 PA)
Kyle Schwarber: LF 80% (432 PA)
Matt Szczur: PH 20% (40 PA), RF 5% (23 PA), CF 5% (22 PA)
Ben Zobrist: 2B 70% (352 PA), RF 15% (78 PA)

Pitchers

Last Pitcher Update: 04-22

Pos Name IP GS QS ERA WHIP BABIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP WARP
Sta-1 Jon Lester 140 20 11 3.56 1.17 .289 123 42 16 143 10 6 0 19.4 2.1
Sta-2 Jake Arrieta 141 21 12 3.40 1.16 .280 116 51 13 141 11 5 0 22.1 2.4
Sta-3 John Lackey 141 21 11 3.88 1.21 .286 129 44 18 128 10 7 0 14.3 1.6
Sta-4 Kyle Hendricks 120 21 12 3.68 1.17 .284 107 36 13 105 8 6 0 14.9 1.6
Sta-5 Brett Anderson 64 12 6 4.18 1.44 .301 67 22 7 45 4 4 0 4.3 0.5
Spot Aaron Brooks 26 5 2 4.25 1.37 .297 28 7 3 19 2 2 0 1.6 0.2
Spot Pierce Johnson 5 1 0 4.63 1.50 .295 5 3 1 4 0 0 0 0.1 0.0
Spot Eddie Butler 15 3 1 4.42 1.33 .292 15 6 2 9 1 1 0 0.6 0.1
Spot Alec Mills 20 2 1 3.83 1.31 .294 19 7 2 15 1 1 0 1.9 0.2
Spot Rob Zastryzny 20 2 1 5.01 1.52 .295 21 9 2 14 1 1 0 -0.3 0.0
Closer Wade Davis 38 0 0 2.63 1.15 .289 29 14 3 46 2 2 29 7.3 0.8
Setup Koji Uehara 28 0 0 3.86 1.11 .281 24 8 5 34 2 1 2 2.1 0.2
Setup Carl Edwards Jr 35 0 0 3.40 1.18 .272 27 16 3 38 2 2 0 3.9 0.4
Mid Brian Duensing 22 0 0 5.02 1.45 .296 24 9 3 17 1 1 0 -0.5 -0.1
Mid Pedro Strop 32 0 0 3.26 1.17 .283 25 13 3 37 2 1 0 4.1 0.4
Mid Hector Rondon 38 0 0 3.51 1.20 .287 34 12 4 38 2 2 0 4.0 0.4
Mid Jose Rosario 6 0 0 5.79 1.71 .298 7 3 1 4 0 0 0 -0.6 -0.1
Mid Felix Pena 13 0 0 4.06 1.35 .293 12 5 1 12 1 1 0 0.7 0.1
Mid Jake Buchanan 16 0 0 4.43 1.42 .295 17 6 2 10 1 1 0 0.8 0.1
Mid Justin Grimm 35 0 0 3.52 1.33 .297 31 16 3 38 2 2 0 3.6 0.4
Mid Jack Leathersich 10 0 0 5.01 1.61 .302 9 5 1 10 0 0 0 -0.2 0.0
Long Mike Montgomery 62 7 4 4.04 1.34 .289 59 26 5 49 4 3 0 4.5 0.5

Your comments and suggested changes are appreciated! Click here to send comments or depth chart changes.



5 comments have been left for this report.

BP Comment Quick Links

OnTilt
(42149)

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a>? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> and .440 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a> in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 06:39 AM
rating: 0
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Well that was obnoxious with your site attempting to embed links. Here it without those keywords.

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 FR-AA? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 On Base and .440 Slugging in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher WA-RP with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

*I have since looked it up on his player card. Contreras with a -9 FR-AA? So he'll be one of the worst defensive catchers in the league? Your own metric had him at +3.6 last year in half the time. That doesn't pass the smell test.

*Regression for Russell and Baez as well in FR-AA?

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 07:03 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

Hi there - thanks for the feedback!

I found a typo in the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a> code for catchers, and Contreras wasn't using the most recent projections. Correcting for that added about 13 runs to his projected FRAA. re: his apparent decline - his minor-league values were pretty bad - see 2015 in Tennessee and 2016 in Iowa.

The rest of the Cubs have decent FRAA projections.

Feb 07, 2017 08:40 AM
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Thanks, glad I could help.

I understand that he had some poor fielding numbers in the minors and, even though his fielding seemed to be very good now that he's worked at it, it will take some time for that to flow through to a quantitative method like this since it needs to show up in the data.

When you said it added 13 runs to his FR-AA did you mean it went up from -21 to -8? Or is it going up from -8 to +5? His player card still shows -8 for his 2017 projection.

Feb 07, 2017 08:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

-21 to -8. He's still projecting as being bad at framing, though that could change.

Feb 07, 2017 09:17 AM
 
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