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Cubs Team Audit page | Cubs PECOTA card page


Last Team Totals Update: 08-17    Dates reflect only changes to playing time, not PECOTA changes.

Record: 25-18
Runs Scored: 200
Runs Allowed: 171
AVG/OBP/SLG (TAv): .247/.324/.415 (.266)
Total WARP: 10.7 (4.6 pitching, 6.1 non-pitching, including 0.0 from pitchers)

Player projections represent rest-of-season only, not including games already played.

Position Players

Last Position Player Update: 08-11  Display By Fielding Position Display By Batting Order

Player Position Summary

Albert Almora: CF 40% (68 PA), PH 20% (15 PA)
Alex Avila: C 30% (51 PA), PH 9% (7 PA)
Javier Baez: SS 30% (53 PA), 3B 20% (35 PA), PH 26% (19 PA), 2B 5% (9 PA)
Kris Bryant: 3B 70% (138 PA), LF 10% (19 PA), 1B 5% (9 PA)
Victor Caratini: C 10% (17 PA)
Willson Contreras: C 60% (110 PA)
Ian Happ: 2B 25% (48 PA), PH 20% (15 PA)
Jason Heyward: RF 80% (147 PA), CF 10% (17 PA)
Jon Jay: CF 50% (98 PA), LF 10% (20 PA), RF 5% (10 PA), PH 9% (7 PA)
Tommy La Stella: 3B 10% (18 PA), PH 15% (11 PA), 1B 5% (9 PA)
Anthony Rizzo: 1B 90% (174 PA)
Addison Russell: SS 70% (121 PA)
Kyle Schwarber: LF 80% (150 PA)
Ben Zobrist: 2B 70% (133 PA), RF 15% (30 PA)

Pitchers

Last Pitcher Update: 07-31

Pos Name IP GS QS ERA WHIP BABIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP WARP
Sta-1 Jon Lester 56 8 5 3.57 1.16 .291 49 17 7 57 5 3 0 7.6 0.8
Sta-2 Jake Arrieta 47 7 4 3.43 1.14 .286 40 17 4 46 3 2 0 7.1 0.8
Sta-3 Jose Quintana 54 9 5 3.64 1.18 .293 50 15 7 53 4 3 0 6.9 0.8
Sta-4 Kyle Hendricks 46 8 4 3.67 1.17 .289 42 14 5 40 3 2 0 5.6 0.6
Sta-5 John Lackey 36 6 3 4.04 1.21 .290 33 11 5 32 2 2 0 3.0 0.3
Spot Aaron Brooks 5 1 0 4.39 1.36 .296 6 1 1 4 0 0 0 0.2 0.0
Spot Eddie Butler 15 3 1 4.40 1.35 .292 16 6 2 9 1 1 0 0.6 0.1
Closer Wade Davis 14 0 0 2.72 1.17 .293 11 6 1 17 1 1 11 2.6 0.3
Setup Justin Wilson 12 0 0 3.42 1.18 .289 10 4 1 12 1 0 1 1.3 0.1
Setup Carl Edwards Jr 13 0 0 3.59 1.19 .281 10 7 1 15 1 1 0 1.2 0.1
Mid Koji Uehara 11 0 0 3.86 1.10 .287 10 3 2 13 0 0 0 0.8 0.1
Mid Brian Duensing 8 0 0 4.71 1.40 .295 9 3 1 6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Mid Pedro Strop 12 0 0 3.17 1.13 .286 10 5 1 14 1 0 0 1.6 0.2
Mid Hector Rondon 14 0 0 3.52 1.21 .292 13 5 2 15 1 1 0 1.5 0.2
Mid Jose Rosario 2 0 0 5.74 1.69 .296 3 1 0 2 0 0 0 -0.2 0.0
Mid Felix Pena 5 0 0 4.22 1.35 .295 4 2 1 4 0 0 0 0.2 0.0
Mid Justin Grimm 13 0 0 3.57 1.31 .295 11 6 1 14 1 1 0 1.3 0.1
Mid Jack Leathersich 4 0 0 4.60 1.50 .297 3 2 0 4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Long Mike Montgomery 16 1 1 3.94 1.30 .290 15 7 1 13 1 1 0 1.2 0.1

Your comments and suggested changes are appreciated! Click here to send comments or depth chart changes.



5 comments have been left for this report.

BP Comment Quick Links

OnTilt
(42149)

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a>? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> and .440 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a> in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 06:39 AM
rating: 0
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Well that was obnoxious with your site attempting to embed links. Here it without those keywords.

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 FR-AA? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 On Base and .440 Slugging in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher WA-RP with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

*I have since looked it up on his player card. Contreras with a -9 FR-AA? So he'll be one of the worst defensive catchers in the league? Your own metric had him at +3.6 last year in half the time. That doesn't pass the smell test.

*Regression for Russell and Baez as well in FR-AA?

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 07:03 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

Hi there - thanks for the feedback!

I found a typo in the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a> code for catchers, and Contreras wasn't using the most recent projections. Correcting for that added about 13 runs to his projected FRAA. re: his apparent decline - his minor-league values were pretty bad - see 2015 in Tennessee and 2016 in Iowa.

The rest of the Cubs have decent FRAA projections.

Feb 07, 2017 08:40 AM
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Thanks, glad I could help.

I understand that he had some poor fielding numbers in the minors and, even though his fielding seemed to be very good now that he's worked at it, it will take some time for that to flow through to a quantitative method like this since it needs to show up in the data.

When you said it added 13 runs to his FR-AA did you mean it went up from -21 to -8? Or is it going up from -8 to +5? His player card still shows -8 for his 2017 projection.

Feb 07, 2017 08:57 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

-21 to -8. He's still projecting as being bad at framing, though that could change.

Feb 07, 2017 09:17 AM
 
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