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Cubs Team Audit page | Cubs PECOTA card page


Last Team Totals Update: 07-23    Dates reflect only changes to playing time, not PECOTA changes.

Record: 38-28
Runs Scored: 313
Runs Allowed: 268
AVG/OBP/SLG (TAv): .246/.323/.420 (.266)
Total WARP: 16.4 (6.9 pitching, 9.5 non-pitching, including 0.0 from pitchers)

Player projections represent rest-of-season only, not including games already played.

Position Players

Last Position Player Update: 07-11  Display By Fielding Position Display By Batting Order

Player Position Summary

Albert Almora: CF 40% (106 PA), PH 20% (23 PA)
Javier Baez: 2B 20% (54 PA), SS 15% (41 PA), PH 25% (29 PA), 3B 10% (26 PA)
Kris Bryant: 3B 70% (212 PA), LF 10% (29 PA), 1B 5% (14 PA)
Jeimer Candelario: 3B 10% (26 PA), 1B 5% (13 PA), PH 10% (11 PA)
Victor Caratini: C 20% (54 PA), PH 10% (11 PA)
Willson Contreras: C 80% (223 PA)
Ian Happ: CF 40% (116 PA), 2B 10% (31 PA)
Jason Heyward: RF 80% (225 PA), CF 10% (27 PA)
Jon Jay: LF 10% (31 PA), CF 10% (30 PA), PH 20% (23 PA), RF 5% (15 PA)
Tommy La Stella: 3B 10% (28 PA), PH 15% (17 PA)
Anthony Rizzo: 1B 90% (267 PA)
Addison Russell: SS 85% (226 PA)
Kyle Schwarber: LF 80% (231 PA)
Ben Zobrist: 2B 70% (211 PA), RF 15% (46 PA)

Pitchers

Last Pitcher Update: 07-13

Pos Name IP GS QS ERA WHIP BABIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP WARP
Sta-1 Jon Lester 84 12 7 3.61 1.16 .290 74 25 10 86 7 3 0 11.3 1.2
Sta-2 Jake Arrieta 74 11 6 3.45 1.15 .283 62 26 7 73 6 3 0 11.2 1.2
Sta-3 Jose Quintana 72 12 7 3.60 1.17 .293 66 19 9 71 5 4 0 9.7 1.1
Sta-4 Kyle Hendricks 57 10 6 3.72 1.17 .287 52 17 6 50 4 3 0 6.9 0.8
Sta-5 John Lackey 48 8 4 4.03 1.21 .289 45 15 6 43 3 2 0 4.2 0.5
Spot Brett Anderson 11 2 1 4.29 1.45 .297 11 4 1 7 1 1 0 0.6 0.1
Spot Mike Montgomery 30 4 2 4.11 1.34 .292 29 12 3 24 2 2 0 2.1 0.2
Spot Aaron Brooks 5 1 0 4.31 1.36 .296 6 1 1 4 0 0 0 0.3 0.0
Spot Eddie Butler 31 5 2 4.80 1.42 .289 32 12 3 17 2 2 0 0.0 0.0
Spot Alec Mills 5 1 1 3.83 1.28 .295 5 2 1 4 0 0 0 0.6 0.1
Closer Wade Davis 22 0 0 2.62 1.16 .292 17 9 2 27 1 1 16 4.4 0.5
Setup Koji Uehara 17 0 0 3.79 1.11 .285 15 5 3 20 1 1 1 1.4 0.2
Setup Carl Edwards Jr 20 0 0 3.49 1.20 .277 15 10 2 23 1 1 0 2.2 0.2
Mid Brian Duensing 13 0 0 4.85 1.43 .296 14 5 2 10 1 1 0 -0.1 0.0
Mid Pedro Strop 19 0 0 3.22 1.16 .285 15 8 2 21 1 1 0 2.5 0.3
Mid Hector Rondon 22 0 0 3.48 1.20 .291 20 7 3 23 1 1 0 2.5 0.3
Mid Jose Rosario 4 0 0 5.76 1.70 .297 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 -0.3 0.0
Mid Felix Pena 8 0 0 4.37 1.37 .294 7 3 1 7 0 0 0 0.2 0.0
Mid Justin Grimm 20 0 0 3.56 1.32 .295 18 9 2 22 1 1 0 2.1 0.2
Mid Jack Leathersich 6 0 0 4.91 1.57 .298 6 3 1 6 0 0 0 -0.1 0.0
Mid Rob Zastryzny 6 0 0 4.70 1.46 .294 6 3 1 4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Long Dylan Floro 15 0 0 4.44 1.41 .299 17 4 2 9 1 1 0 0.4 0.0

Your comments and suggested changes are appreciated! Click here to send comments or depth chart changes.



5 comments have been left for this report.

BP Comment Quick Links

OnTilt
(42149)

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a>? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> and .440 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a> in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 06:39 AM
rating: 0
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Well that was obnoxious with your site attempting to embed links. Here it without those keywords.

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 FR-AA? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 On Base and .440 Slugging in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher WA-RP with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

*I have since looked it up on his player card. Contreras with a -9 FR-AA? So he'll be one of the worst defensive catchers in the league? Your own metric had him at +3.6 last year in half the time. That doesn't pass the smell test.

*Regression for Russell and Baez as well in FR-AA?

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 07:03 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

Hi there - thanks for the feedback!

I found a typo in the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a> code for catchers, and Contreras wasn't using the most recent projections. Correcting for that added about 13 runs to his projected FRAA. re: his apparent decline - his minor-league values were pretty bad - see 2015 in Tennessee and 2016 in Iowa.

The rest of the Cubs have decent FRAA projections.

Feb 07, 2017 08:40 AM
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Thanks, glad I could help.

I understand that he had some poor fielding numbers in the minors and, even though his fielding seemed to be very good now that he's worked at it, it will take some time for that to flow through to a quantitative method like this since it needs to show up in the data.

When you said it added 13 runs to his FR-AA did you mean it went up from -21 to -8? Or is it going up from -8 to +5? His player card still shows -8 for his 2017 projection.

Feb 07, 2017 08:57 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

-21 to -8. He's still projecting as being bad at framing, though that could change.

Feb 07, 2017 09:17 AM
 
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