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Team Injury Projections

The Team Injury Projections are here, driven by our brand new injury forecasting system, the Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results—or, more succinctly, CHIPPER. Thanks to work by Colin Wyers and Dan Turkenkopf and a database loaded with injuries dating back to the 2002 season—that's nearly 4,600 players and well over 400,000 days lost to injury—we now have a system that produces injury-risk assessments to three different degrees. CHIPPER projects ratings for players based on their injury history—these ratings measure the probability of a player missing one or more games, 15 or more games, or 30 or more games. CHIPPER will have additional features added to it throughout the spring and early season that will enhance the accuracy of our injury coverage.

These ratings are also available in the Player Forecast Manager (pfm.baseballprospectus.com), where they'll be sortable by league or position—you won’t have to wait for us to finish writing this series in order to see the health ratings for all of the players.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Team Audit | Depth Chart
 

Dashboard


2010 Recap
 

2010
 

2009
 

2008
 

2007
6th in NL Central
49 entries
11 DL trips
               

846
TDL

17
DMPI
 

846
TDL
15th
 

17
DMPI
8th
 

885
TDL
7th
 

20
DMPI
13th
 

536
TDL
2nd
 

12
DMPI
1st
 

567
TDL
4th
 

11
DMPI
1st

Hitters in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 

Days Lost to Injury

2011 Injury Risk

Player

Age

2008

2009

2010

1-day

15-days

30-days
Andrew McCutchen

24

0

0

9

Yellow

Green

Green
Jose Tabata

22

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Neil Walker

25

0

0

7

Yellow

Green

Green
Pedro Alvarez

23

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Lyle Overbay

34

2

3

6

Red

Yellow

Green
Garrett Jones

30

0

2

2

Yellow

Green

Green
Ronny Cedeno

28

2

29

9

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Chris Snyder

30

21

82

0

Red

Red

Yellow
John Bowker

27

0

0

1

Yellow

Green

Green
Matt Diaz

33

119

3

45

Red

Red

Red
Steve Pearce

28

0

0

135

Red

Red

Red
Pedro Ciriaco

25

0

0

0

Red

Red

Yellow
Jason Jaramillo

28

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Ryan Doumit

30

29

86

19

Red

Red

Red

Pitchers in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 

Days Lost to Injury

2011 Injury Risk

Player

Age

2008

2009

2010

1-day

15-days

30-days
Paul Maholm

29

0

0

7

Yellow

Green

Green
Ross Ohlendorf

28

0

0

69

Yellow

Green

Green
Kevin Correia

30

49

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
James McDonald

26

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Charlie Morton

27

24

91

35

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Scott Olsen

27

0

129

84

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Joel Hanrahan

29

0

11

17

Yellow

Green

Green
Chris Resop

28

0

0

61

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Evan Meek

28

0

54

10

Yellow

Green

Green
Joe Beimel

34

0

15

0

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Jose Veras

30

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Jeff Karstens

28

69

15

39

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Brian Burres

30

6

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Brad Lincoln

26

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green

Summary: The Pirates have been terrible at many things for many years, but they have maintained a relatively clean bill of health recently. However, plenty of injuries have appeared on their ledger: they've simply managed to miss significantly less time than most other teams despite getting hurt more often.

That trend could change in 2011, as there is a good chance that several players will end up missing significant time. Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder have both hurt themselves within the last three seasons, and each carries the additional risk posed by having to crouch behind the plate on a regular basis. At first base, Lyle Overbay does bring some stability and experience to the Pirates that they lacked in 2010, though his age puts him at a moderate risk for injury.

At least two of the team's younger, more talented players—Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez—are expected to stay on the field. Ronny Cedeno is a moderate risk to land on the DL, but he's not so fragile that he won't be able to "contribute" at shortstop on a near-daily basis. The outfield should be stable, as Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and Garrett Jones all appear to be safe bets to stay healthy in 2011, according to CHIPPER.

With the exception of one 34-year-old hurler, the age of every pitcher on the staff falls between 26 and 30. This tight grouping may be a reason for the lower injury risk rate throughout. Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, and newly-signed Opening Day starter Kevin Correia are all low-risk pitchers, so there is at least some chance that the middle of the middling staff will be stable. James McDonald—who has the potential to be a high-quality starter—rates green across the board, though an injury to his side this spring caused Pirates fans and fantasy owners alike to hold their collective breath. Charlie Morton isn't a given to land on the DL, but he has had repeated injuries to his upper extremities. In 2010, Morton missed significant time due to fatigue in his shoulder. Joel Hanrahan is showing signs that he may be putting a few entries into the database in 2011. He has suffered several injuries to his elbow, potential first steps toward a more serious injury down the road.

The Big Risk: McCutchen is the player whom the Bucs can least afford to lose. He was the first of the group of young and talented Pirates whose production has given fans (slivers of) hope. If he is lost, Tabata would likely switch to center field, giving our double-crossboned friend Matt Diaz a full-time gig in a corner. Lefty mashers are great to have around when they are facing left-handers, but unfortunately for Diaz and the Pirates, many more innings are thrown by right-handers. With Diaz in the outfield full-time, there is a significant chance that a domino effect could occur.

Comeback: Steven Pearce had a patellar tendon repair performed on his left knee in August of 2010. The repair of a partial patellar tendon tear hasn’t been done nearly as often as most other procedures, according to the database, but it’s not a once-in-a-decade surgery. Pearce likely won’t be playing every day with Lyle Overbay in town, but the fact that he could come back fully healthy is noteworthy.

Best Health: Jason Jaramillo does not have any records in the database, so we'll give him the honors.

Worst Health: Diaz has had three surgeries in the last two years to go along with a PCL strain in 2008.