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07-24

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: All About Failure
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-24

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis
by
Jeff Quinton

07-24

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0

Free Agent Watch: Week 17
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-23

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9

Dynasty Dynamics: Players We're Buying at the Deadline
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

07-23

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14

The Stash List: 14th Edition
by
Bret Sayre

07-23

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Useful Non-Closer Relievers
by
J.P. Breen

07-22

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3

My Model Portfolio: Three-and-a-Half Months Later
by
Bret Sayre

07-22

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1

Deep Impact: Week 16
by
Ben Carsley

07-21

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8

The Buyer's Guide: Jason Kipnis
by
J.P. Breen

07-21

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0

Interleague Report: Week 17
by
Jeff Quinton

07-21

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16

Closer to Me: Week 17
by
Mauricio Rubio

07-21

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: The MLB Trade Landscape, Buyers
by
Mike Gianella

07-18

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5

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 17
by
Wilson Karaman

07-18

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15

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Chris Davis
by
Craig Goldstein

07-17

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

07-17

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0

Free Agent Watch: Week 16
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-17

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: All-Star Week
by
Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-16

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12

Dynasty Dynamics: Top 50 Jumpers
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

07-15

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have Made
by
Mike Gianella

07-15

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6

Deep Impact: Week 15
by
Ben Carsley

07-14

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1

Interleague Report: Week 16
by
Jeff Quinton

07-14

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41

Top 50 Dynasty League Prospects
by
Bret Sayre

07-14

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5

Closer to Me: Week 16
by
Mauricio Rubio

07-14

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Howie Kendrick
by
J.P. Breen

07-11

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Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Charlie Morton
by
Wilson Karaman

07-11

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: What to Expect From Jimmy Nelson
by
Craig Goldstein

07-10

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1

Free Agent Watch: Week 15
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-10

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-10

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5

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Crossover Season Begins
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-09

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Don't Forget About Me
by
J.P. Breen

07-09

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7

Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report: Prospect Edition, Part Two
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

07-08

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1

Deep Impact: Week 14
by
Ben Carsley

07-07

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1

The Buyer's Guide: Michael Brantley
by
J.P. Breen

07-07

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0

Interleague Report: Week 15
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

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7

Closer to Me: Week 15
by
Mauricio Rubio

07-07

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Edition, Sellers
by
Mike Gianella

07-03

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2

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Maximizing Value in Midseason Trades
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-03

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11

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 15
by
Wilson Karaman

07-03

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Rick Porcello: Buy or Sell?
by
Craig Goldstein

07-03

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2

Free Agent Watch: Week 14
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-02

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

07-02

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1

Dynasty Dynamics: Futures Team Meet and Greet: World
by
Ben Carsley

07-01

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7

The Buyer's Guide: Jake Arrieta
by
J.P. Breen

07-01

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12

The Stash List: 12th Edition
by
Bret Sayre

07-01

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1

Deep Impact: Week 13
by
Ben Carsley

06-30

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2

Interleague Report: Week 14
by
Jeff Quinton

06-30

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5

Closer to Me: Week 14: Closer Swap
by
Mauricio Rubio

06-30

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Looking at Values, Part 2: Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

06-27

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2

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 14
by
Wilson Karaman

06-27

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Veterans With Value
by
Craig Goldstein

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July 11, 2014 6:30 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Charlie Morton

0

Wilson Karaman

The sinkerballer has seen his strikeout rate spike recently, but can he keep it up?

For those of you who loyally read my weekly Starting Pitcher Planner column (which will return at its regularly scheduled time next week, incidentally), it should come as no surprise that I’m a fan of Charlie Morton’s work. And lately that’s been an easier position to embrace, as the sinkerballer has turned in an outstanding stretch since the calendar flipped to June. Over his past seven starts he’s thrown 45 innings of 2.80 ERA, 1.02 WHIP baseball—and that includes one poor start against the Cubs that singlehandedly accounts for 42 percent of the runs he’s allowed during the period. But what is perhaps most interesting about this string of starts is that he has bucked a career strikeout rate that hovered just north of 6.0 K/9 to whiff 49 batters across those 45 frames. Morton emerged from his Tommy John cocoon as a consistent back-end starter in medium-depth leagues last year, and looked to be on a nice path towards reprising the role again through the first couple months of this season. But the strikeout rate gains over an increasingly intriguing sample size suddenly make him a much more attention-grabbing option for mixed leaguers. So what’s going on? Where did all these whiffs come from, and is this a sustainable development?

Let’s start with the usual suspects. Quick glances at Morton’s velocity and pitch movement by month don’t yield much in the way of explanation. After seeing his two-seam velocity peak at 92.9 miles an hour in May he’s actually seen that number drop down 92.1 in June and 91.8 so far in two July starts. So that’s not moving in the right direction at all. And speaking of movement, when we take a peek at his horizontal movement we find that after manipulating about 10 1/2 inches of horizontal movement on his two-seamer back in May he’s down to about 9 1/4 inches now. Huh. So basically, Morton’s hot stretch coincides with lower velocity and less movement on his pitches, usually two signs reserved for situations in which a pitcher may be unhealthy or otherwise experiencing a period of unproductivity.

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July 11, 2014 6:30 am

Fantasy Freestyle: What to Expect From Jimmy Nelson

10

Craig Goldstein

The Brewers righty is coming back to the big leagues; here's a look at what he could do for your fantasy squad.

Jimmy Nelson is going to make his second start of the season on Friday. You’re forgiven if you missed the first one—though it was good (5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K, 0 ER)—and you’re forgiven if you don’t remember our Call-Up article on him, because it took place during the call-up heavy month of September, last season. Nelson replaces Marco Estrada in the Brewers rotation at a time when the Brewers desperately need to maintain their 1 ½-game lead in the NL Central, lest they fall back into a crowded wild card race. Replacing Estrada with Nelson at this crucial time shows one of two things: The Brewer’s complete lack of faith in Estrada ironing out his home run issues (which are bad, even for him), or their belief in the abilities of Nelson, not necessarily to live up to his potential, but to be better than Estrada will be for the remainder of the season.

Speaking of that potential, here’s what erstwhile BP-er Jason Cole had to say last September about Nelson:

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July 10, 2014 6:00 am

Free Agent Watch: Week 15

1

Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

If these players are on your league's waiver wire, they might be worth a look, depending on the format in which you play.

Welcome back to our weekly walk through some of the players who may want to keep an extra eye on in your leagues. Mike and I will be tackling this topic on Thursdays again and focusing on a singular hitter and pitcher in four of the more popular formats: shallow mixed, deep mixed, NL-only, and AL-only. These are certainly not the only players who are worth pickups, but it gives us a nice opportunity to write about players we have close tabs on in our leagues.

12-TEAM MIXED

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July 10, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets

0

Jeff Quinton

How understanding league norms could help you make the most of your fantasy swaps.

Many a fantasy baseball player is trying to make a trade right now. Many trades will be made that should not have been made. Many trades will not be made that should have been made. League norms, while usually helpful, can play a role in distorting fantasy baseball trades and trade talks. More specifically, league norms often cause us to make trades outside of what the market dictates. Again, this can cause trades that should be made to go unmade and trades that should not be made to be made. We will take a look at league norms and how they impact trades. We will then look at what we can do about it.

League Norms:
I am usually all into books and journal articles and stuff, but sometimes good ol’ Wikipedia has just what the internet writer ordered:


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July 10, 2014 6:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Crossover Season Begins

5

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

The A's-Cubs swap kicks off the drama of players changing leagues, and the Outcomes chat with Joe Sheehan on the podcast.

While probably not foremost on Billy Beane or Theo Epstein’s mind, Scoresheet League crossover season opened in earnest last week with the announcement of the blockbuster A’s-Cubs trade. This trade, featuring one of the greatest player-for-prospect hauls in a while, also has major ramifications for fantasy owners in each league.

NL-Only Leagues
Jeff Samardzija owners must have a smile as long as the Shark’s flowing locks this week, as Samardzija lands in roughly the best possible option for his future performance given the landscape at the start of the season. Not only is the park pitcher-friendly, but the generous foul territory at home helps owners get more innings from their ace starter. Naturally, Jason Hammel will see a similar bump, although potential regression in his performance and the desire to keep him healthy for the playoffs may dampen the potential boost.


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July 9, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Don't Forget About Me

6

J.P. Breen

The recent surges from April's fantasy slumptrucks.

A couple weeks ago, we discussed some unexpected early-season fantasy studs and asked how they had fared since their brilliant starts to the season. An intrepid commenter suggested a follow-up article that highlighted some players who had accelerated their performance after spinning their wheels out of the gate. This is my humble acquiescence.

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July 9, 2014 6:00 am

Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report: Prospect Edition, Part Two

7

Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

Examining minor leaguers based on whether their fantasy arrows are pointing up, down, or sideways.

When you’ve done rankings and mock drafts for two straight months, you kind of wonder… why would anyone write about anything else? Sure there are draft grades, but those aren’t nearly as applicable to fantasy.

Then it hits you like a ton of bricks. Something like a… a stock watch. No. Everyone does that. What if you just called it something else. Yes, now you’re cooking with gas. What about a Progress Report? Perfect.

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July 8, 2014 6:00 am

Deep Impact: Week 14

1

Ben Carsley

Examining a handful of players who might pique your interest in deep leagues.

There are two types of people in this world: those who write intros, those who don’t, and those who can count.

Brandon McCarthy, RHP, Yankees
I generally write about players you want to target in Deep Impact, but here I want to warn you against giving up anything of much worth of McCarthy. Yes, he’s going to a better situation in terms of win totals in New York. And yes, some of his performance this season can be attributed to poor luck. But those who are simply looking at McCarthy’s BABIP and expecting a major turnaround are going to be disappointed.


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July 7, 2014 11:23 am

The Buyer's Guide: Michael Brantley

1

J.P. Breen

Is J.P. buying the Cleveland outfielder's breakout?

With the summer trading season in full swing, the letters “PTBNL” are about to become quite familiar. However, while many trade deadline deals include that mysterious Player To Be Named Later, recent history has taught baseball fans to disregard any such player, as they usually turn out to be inconsequential.

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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 15

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Closer to Me: Week 15

7

Mauricio Rubio

Surveying the ninth-inning situations around the league.

Tampa Bay Rays
This can be a difficult article to write. Speculating on saves is a tricky thing, one that requires following a lot of beat writers and trying to find trends written into stat lines. The closer job is a serious one, and it’s not like managers pick the closer for completely arbitrary reasons that have little to do with logic and are more holistic in nature. I mean there’s no way someone would pick a closer based on aura, right?


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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Edition, Sellers

2

Mike Gianella

A look at the moves sellers might make and the fantasy impact they'd have.

Unless you are in a very shallow mixed league, chances are excellent that the major league non-waiver trade deadline will have an impact on your fantasy league. Even if you don’t play fantasy baseball, the deadline is a fun time if you are a baseball fan, but ever since I started playing fantasy baseball, I feel like I pay extra attention to the rumor mill.

What I have compiled for our readers this week is a helpful, at-a-glance, one article look at the potential trade market this month, particularly from the viewpoint of players who might be on the move. Since this is a fantasy article, I will focus on fantasy impact, but if you are a non-fantasy player and a Baseball Prospectus reader, I hope that this article proves useful to you as well.

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