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09-16

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8

Deep Impact: Week 25
by
Ben Carsley

09-15

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0

Interleague Report: Week 25
by
Jeff Quinton

09-15

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: The Other Guys, Part Two: National League
by
Mike Gianella

09-12

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13

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 25
by
Wilson Karaman

09-12

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9

Fantasy Freestyle: The Process of Analyzing Process: A Keeper League Example
by
Jeff Quinton

09-11

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0

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 34
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

09-11

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11

Free Agent Watch: Week 24
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

09-11

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0

Deep Impact: Week 23
by
Ben Carsley

09-10

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24

Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report Food Comps
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

09-10

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Lance Lynn
by
J.P. Breen

09-08

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0

Interleague Report: Week 24
by
Jeff Quinton

09-08

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5

Closer to Me: Week 22: Looking Back, Looking Forward
by
Mauricio Rubio

09-08

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: The Other Guys, Part One: American League
by
Mike Gianella

09-05

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13

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 24
by
Wilson Karaman

09-04

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: A Behavioral Look at Lineup Setting
by
Jeff Quinton

09-04

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5

Free Agent Watch: Week 23
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

09-03

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1

Deep Impact: Week 22
by
Ben Carsley

09-03

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2

They Hold No Quarter: Shortstops
by
BP Fantasy Staff

09-03

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Danny Duffy
by
Craig Goldstein

09-02

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0

Interleague Report: Week 23
by
Jeff Quinton

08-29

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7

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 23
by
Wilson Karaman

08-29

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy Corey Dickerson
by
Craig Goldstein

08-28

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing the Competitive Landscape
by
Jeff Quinton

08-28

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0

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Checking in on a Scoresheet Rookie
by
Ben Murphy

08-27

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3

Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report: Prospect Edition, Part Three
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

08-27

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3

They Hold No Quarter: Third Basemen
by
Baseball Prospectus

08-26

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8

Deep Impact: Week 21
by
Ben Carsley

08-25

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4

Interleague Report: Week 22
by
Jeff Quinton

08-25

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Carlos Carrasco
by
J.P. Breen

08-25

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Weak Links
by
Mike Gianella

08-25

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0

Closer to Me: Week 22
by
Mauricio Rubio

08-22

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12

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 22
by
Wilson Karaman

08-22

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting for Era
by
Craig Goldstein

08-21

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

08-21

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Week 21
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

08-21

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4

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 32
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

08-20

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4

Dynasty Dynamics: More Top 50 Talk
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

08-20

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4

They Hold No Quarter: Second Basemen
by
BP Fantasy Staff

08-20

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Being Wrong About Yovani Gallardo
by
J.P. Breen

08-19

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0

Deep Impact: Week 20
by
Ben Carsley

08-19

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14

The Stash List: 18th Edition: The Final Quest
by
Bret Sayre

08-18

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0

Interleague Report: Week 21
by
Jeff Quinton

08-18

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Jonathan Lucroy
by
J.P. Breen

08-18

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1

Closer to Me: Week 21
by
Mauricio Rubio

08-15

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Starling Marte and Being Wrong
by
Craig Goldstein

08-14

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1

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 31
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

08-13

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Setting Expectations on Superstars
by
J.P. Breen

08-13

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27

Dynasty Dynamics: Our Top 50 Dynasty League Prospects
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

08-13

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7

They Hold No Quarter: First Base
by
BP Fantasy Staff

08-12

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14

The Stash List: 17th Edition
by
Bret Sayre

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August 27, 2014 6:00 am

Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report: Prospect Edition, Part Three

3

Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

Checking in on the fantasy stocks of some intriguing minor leaguers.

When you’ve done rankings and mock drafts for two straight months, you kind of wonder… why would anyone write about anything else? Sure there are draft grades, but those aren’t nearly as applicable to fantasy.

Then it hits you like a ton of bricks. Something like a… a stock watch. No. Everyone does that. What if you just called it something else. Yes, now you’re cooking with gas. What about a Progress Report? Perfect.

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August 27, 2014 6:00 am

They Hold No Quarter: Third Basemen

3

Baseball Prospectus

These hot-corner players aren't owned in many leagues, but they might hold keeper value for 2015 and beyond.

If there’s anything we love more than baseball around here on the fantasy staff, it’s collaborating with each other. So, at the behest of myself, we’re going to be doing one final group series of the year to close out the last seven weeks of the season. For this series, we will each select one player who is below 25 percent owned in either ESPN or Yahoo! leagues who could be someone to consider grabbing before the end of the season with an eye toward a keeper spot. Now, given the depth we’re dealing with here, these recommendations are not for owners who can keep five or seven players from season-to-season—it’s more for those of you who play in leagues where keepers take up more than half of your roster (and possibly more, in the case of some recommendations contained within).

Garin Cecchini, Boston Red Sox
“Garin Cecchini has had a down year. His much-vaunted walk rate is down and his strikeout rate is up. Trading walks for strikeouts is not good. The good that might come of this is that his poor performance has potentially made him acquirable. We know that owners hate selling low, but if he has not been claimed or if he has been dropped, then I still think he is worth a shot. Since he’s still only 23 years old, 2014 might prove to be an adjustment year for Cecchini. Of course, it might not. But if it does, you are looking at a cheap third basemen that gives you a little bit of everything while playing half his games at Fenway. On top of that, opportunity is not unforeseeable as only Will Middlebrooks and Brock Holt stand in front of him on the depth chart. Cecchini could also very easily be traded, potentially in a package including Boston’s many outfielders and number five/six starters. The advantage here is that the acquiring team probably likes Cecchini, meaning playing time would be likely. It is not a sexy gamble, but it is a gamble that (depending on your league) might just be cheap enough to be worth the risk.” —Jeff Quinton


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August 26, 2014 6:00 am

Deep Impact: Week 21

8

Ben Carsley

Examining a handful of players who might pique your interest in deep leagues.

That’s me in the intro. That’s me in the spotlight.

Rusney Castillo, OF, Red Sox
In last week’s Deep Impact, I talked up Mookie Betts, assuring owners that he’d see the majority of playing time in center field for the rest of the season now that Jackie Bradley Jr. has been relegated to the minor leagues. Whoops.


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August 25, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 22

4

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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August 25, 2014 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: Carlos Carrasco

2

J.P. Breen

The Indians righty caught J.P.'s attention last week, and now might be the time to pounce.

Spring training in Arizona is close to perfection for me. I adore the various unique ballparks that only fill to half of their capacity, the infectious optimism that surrounds every team, the pristine weather, and the opportunity to submerge myself in nothing but baseball. Most of all, I enjoy the action on the backfields. There’s something great about watching dozens of young players playing a wonderful game, wearing jerseys without their names on the backs, and honing their craft in relative obscurity.

The real thrill, though, comes when some no-name guy jacks one 450 feet to straightaway center. Or when a random pitcher catches your eye because he’s popping triple digits with ease. It’s that moment in which you mutter, “Wow. Who the f--- is this guy?” and quickly start scribbling notes.

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August 25, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Weak Links

3

Mike Gianella

Signs of and advice on handling players who aren't up to par with the competition in your league.

If you are a veteran fantasy player like I am, chances are good that you participate in leagues with strong competition. I have played in “easy” leagues in the past, and while on some level it is fun to watch a powerhouse team roll over the competition, it isn’t very challenging and after a while becomes staid and boring. I’d rather beat strong players as opposed to simply rolling over a group of chumps that is already looking ahead to fantasy football in early August.

While playing against excellent competition is the fantasy baseball ideal, sometimes a “bad” player or two does slip through the cracks and make it into a competitive league. One bad apple won’t necessarily destroy a league, but can have anywhere from a mild to moderate impact on the quality of the league depending on the nature of why the player is weak.

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August 25, 2014 6:00 am

Closer to Me: Week 22

0

Mauricio Rubio

Surveying the Ninth-Inning Situations Around the League

Oakland Athletics

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August 22, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 22

12

Wilson Karaman

Helping you set your fantasy rotation for next week with a look at the two-start pitchers.

Welcome to the Weekly Pitching Planner!

A nice slate of options for the week, as only the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will be limited to five-game schedules. The American League is particularly stacked; while they lack an “auto-start” option from the top shelf of the league, there is a long and illustrious list of both “start” and strong “consider” options for fantasy managers to choose from. The Angels have still not announced a fill-in for Garrett Richards as of this writing. His gruesome injury is a huge blow for his real and fantasy teams alike. Whoever gets the nod will have a tough draw with the A’s on his card, and won’t be much more than an end-game “consider” at best.

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August 22, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting for Era

3

Craig Goldstein

We all have our own idea of what constitutes a good ERA, FIP, or xFIP, but it's important to make sure that our benchmarks keep up with the times.

While some of us have come to use plus-or-minus stats that adjust to league average to make our determinations on where a player lands within his ranks, it’s clear that many people still use the standard ERA to evaluate a pitcher or batting average to evaluate a hitter. There’s no issue with that, especially when those are the relevant categories in a fantasy league—but there’s something of a collective benchmark that we have for what determines a good, great, or elite ERA or batting average. Even more advanced stats like FIP or xFIP fall prey to this collective benchmark and to our failure to adjust for context.

Focusing on the pitching side of the equation, based on the era I grew up in a 3.00 ERA was/is my benchmark for whether someone is a good pitcher. There are shades of gray of course—a mediocre pitcher can have a fluky season—but everything revolves around that 3.00. A 3.30 was pretty good and a 3.50 was solid. A 4.00 was fit for a fifth starter/long-man type. Reality, of course, is a different story. We all know that we’re in a down offensive period in baseball, but I do wonder if enough of us have adjusted to what that means on the pitching side of the equation. This is an effort to show just how dramatically things have changed over the last few years, so that we can recalibrate what an elite or good pitcher is, and then use that as a new frame of reference.

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August 21, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation

3

Jeff Quinton

"I was wrong" season for the fantasy team continues with a behavioral look at errors in forecasting how players will perform.

Seemingly out of nowhere, it has become “I was wrong” season for the Baseball Prospectus fantasy team. First, Craig Goldstein wrote about undervaluing Starling Marte, and then J.P. Breen wrote about undervaluing Yovani Gallardo. Both articles do an excellent job analyzing what each author missed regarding the specific player. What I hope to look at today is not what was missed about a specific player, but rather what parts of human behavior cause us to err when forecasting player production.

In order to do so, let us take a look at forecasting and what humans do when forecasting. My favorite definition of forecast (the verb) is from Merriam-Webster and it goes, “to predict after looking at the information available.” I like this definition because it is convenient for my article. I also like it because it highlights that our forecasts are dependent on “the information available.” Relatedly, in Thinking, Fast and Slow, our main human, Daniel Kahneman writes, “An essential design feature of the associative machine is that it represents only activated ideas.” Put differently, we cannot take into account that which we cannot imagine. I am throwing around a lot of combinations of words right now, so please allow me to simplify all this:

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August 21, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Week 21

3

Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

If these players are on the waiver wire, they might be worth a look, depending on the format of your league.

12-TEAM MIXED

Norichika Aoki, OF, Kansas City Royals
The Royals have been on quite a tear in August, and having their leadoff hitter doing what he’s supposed to be doing has certainly helped them in this stretch. Aoki, who had been quite a fantasy disappointment over the first four months of the season, is doing the two things the Royals and fantasy owners want him to do recently: get on base and steal bases. Since August started, Aoki is hitting .295/.386/.410 with 14 runs scored and six steals in just 18 games. Compare that to the 40 runs scored and nine steals Aoki had over the first 82 games of the season, and you start to wonder what your team could have looked like if he had been doing this since the start of the year. And while it’s true that non-elite speed gets devalued a bit in shallower mixed leagues, Aoki’s strength in batting average (or OBP, depending on what you fancy) and runs helps make him a player who should be owned across the board right now in rotisserie leagues. —Bret Sayre


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August 21, 2014 6:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 32

4

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

The Outcomes get ready for Scoresheet playoff season and answer reader/listener questions.

This week in the podcast:
The Outcomes get ready for Scoresheet playoff season. They take reader questions, decide whether to dump a contender, and then discuss budding superstar Tsuyoshi Wada. Then, the Outcomes describe what they look for in a playoff contender—strangely, no one ever suggests "a good team"—and compare building a playoff roster to setting weekly lineups. Finally, they take you through the best things they saw this week, featuring cyborg houseware, the vengeance of Erik Kratz, and the true feeling of anger and resignation that comes only after being forced to listen to Sean Casey and Billy Ripken for three hours. Playoff fever! It's probably not contagious!


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