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05-03

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Closer Report: Week Five
by
Matt Collins

05-03

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0

Expert FAAB Review: Week Five
by
Mike Gianella

05-02

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5

The Buyer's Guide: Patrick Corbin
by
J.P. Breen

04-29

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8

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week Five
by
Greg Wellemeyer

04-29

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7

Deep League Report: Week Four
by
Scooter Hotz

04-29

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0

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 84
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-29

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8

Free Agent Watch: Week Four
by
George Bissell and J.J. Jansons

04-28

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7

The Stash List: Fourth Edition, 2016
by
J.J. Jansons

04-28

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: The Best Fastballs of the First Few Weeks
by
Wilson Karaman

04-27

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5

The Fantasy Verdict: Is Storytime Over?
by
J.P. Breen

04-26

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5

Closer Report: Week Four
by
Matt Collins

04-25

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Derek Norris
by
J.P. Breen

04-22

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: The Art of the Steal
by
Mike Gianella

04-22

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4

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week Four
by
Greg Wellemeyer

04-22

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1

Free Agent Watch: Week Four
by
J.P. Breen and Jeff Quinton

04-22

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The Things We Believe: Bounce-Backs, Disappointments, and a Surprise MVP Candidate
by
Matt Collins and Ben Carsley

04-21

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2

Deep League Report: Week Three
by
Scooter Hotz

04-21

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1

The Quinton: The Big Trade, Untouchables, and Storytelling
by
Jeff Quinton

04-21

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1

The Things We Believe: A Cy Young Repeat and a Sophomore Slump
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

04-20

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3

The Things We Believe: Long-Shot Rookies, Power Surges, and an Emerging Strikeout Artist
by
Greg Wellemeyer and J.P. Breen

04-20

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Fantasy Freestyle: Batted-Ball Profile and Team Defensive Context, Part 2
by
Wilson Karaman

04-19

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9

Closer Report: Week Two
by
Matt Collins

04-18

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The Things We Believe: Scary Sliders and Young Studs
by
George Bissell and J.J. Jansons

04-18

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3

The Buyer's Guide: David Price
by
J.P. Breen

04-15

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Free Agent Watch: Week Two
by
George Bissell and J.J. Jansons

04-15

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10

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 83: April Supplemental Draft Overview
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-15

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Fantasy Freestyle: It's Early, Calm Down
by
Mike Gianella

04-15

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3

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week Two
by
Greg Wellemeyer

04-14

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6

The Stash List: Second Edition, 2016
by
J.J. Jansons

04-14

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7

Deep League Report: Week Two
by
Scooter Hotz

04-14

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8

The Fantasy Verdict: Declaring Winners and Losers of Trades
by
J.P. Breen

04-13

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Batted Balls and Team Defensive Context
by
Wilson Karaman

04-12

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The Quinton: Bold Predictions and Confirmation Bias
by
Jeff Quinton

04-12

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9

Closer Report: Week Two
by
Matt Collins

04-12

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Fantasy Freestyle: My Fantasy Investment Portfolio
by
Scooter Hotz

04-11

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Jean Segura
by
J.P. Breen

04-08

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2

Deep League Report: Week One
by
Scooter Hotz

04-08

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: The Problem With the Rules in Standard Leagues
by
Mike Gianella

04-08

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7

Free Agent Watch: Week One
by
J.P. Breen and Jeff Quinton

04-08

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8

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week Two
by
Greg Wellemeyer

04-07

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7

The Stash List: First Edition, 2016
by
J.J. Jansons

04-06

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6

Dynasty Dynamics: Rebuilding in TDGX
by
Ben Carsley

04-06

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Bold Predictions for 2016
by
Wilson Karaman

04-05

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10

Closer Report: Week One
by
Matt Collins

04-05

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10

The Quinton: Keeper-League Auction Takeaways
by
Jeff Quinton

04-04

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The Buyer's Guide: Martin Perez
by
J.P. Breen

04-01

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Spring Training Risers
by
J.J. Jansons

04-01

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 82: A Season Preview Spectacular
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-01

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0

My Model Portfolio: Punting Saves
by
Jeff Quinton

04-01

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7

Fantasy Auction Values: Fourth Edition, 2016
by
Mike Gianella

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April 22, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The Art of the Steal

2

Mike Gianella

Evidence that stolen bases are improperly valued in fantasy circles, and ideas on how to fix a steal-lacking squad via trade.

With the exception of saves, stolen bases are the category most likely to make people moan and groan in fantasy baseball. The value of the stolen base is disproportionate to what it is in real life, which generates a great deal of frustration when it comes to constructing teams in roto leagues. Some go as far to suggest that the solution is to play in a (shudder) points league.

Two common beliefs among fantasy players are that: 1) stolen bases are not all that valuable and 2) stolen bases can found easily on the free agent pool. In this article, I will examine both of these perceptions and see how well they hold up under scrutiny.

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April 22, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week Four

4

Greg Wellemeyer

Helping you set your fantasy rotation for next week with a look at the two-start pitchers.

Welcome to the starting pitcher planner, where every Friday I’ll be taking a look at the pitchers slated for two turns in the upcoming week. The hope is that the planner can help guide lineup and FAAB decisions that need to be made over the weekend. Of course, my information isn’t perfect and I don’t have a crystal ball. Rain, injuries, and teams reshuffling between when I write and Monday’s first pitch will definitely happen. If new information comes to light after we publish, I’ll try to tackle it in the comments. Feel free to beat me to it if you have any info, and I’ll be glad to offer my opinion there if you want it.

Let’s get some ground rules out the way before getting started. The pitchers will be split by league and then by category. Here are some general thoughts about the categories:

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April 22, 2016 6:00 am

Free Agent Watch: Week Four

1

J.P. Breen and Jeff Quinton

If these players are on your league's waiver wire, they might be worth a look, depending on the format.

12-TEAM MIXED LEAGUES (HITTERS)

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Matt and Ben share their bold fantasy predictions for the 2016 season.

I Firmly Believe: David Robertson will be a top-three closer

It seems that, year after year, David Robertson is one of the most underrated relievers in all of baseball. Heading into this season, he was being drafted as the 11th RP according to ADP data. That’s exactly where he finished among RP-only pitchers on ESPN Player Rater’s last year, the second highest for a pitcher on a team that finished under .500. Robertson’s appeal has never really been the huge upside, but rather the boring consistency. This, however, should be the year he joins the elite class of closers.

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April 21, 2016 6:00 am

Deep League Report: Week Three

2

Scooter Hotz

Examining players who might pique your interest in deep leagues.

The love you felt for your roster after your auction is gone now. Your team has seen demotions, injuries, and weak performances on both sides of the ball. It’s time to fill in those dead spots on your roster and make some bets on upside or possible role changes that could make your season. Getting in early on players with high ceilings or players who stand to inherit larger roles can keep the cost low so you have more FAAB later in the year for imports from the other league or minor league callups after the Super Two deadline passes. Time to work the wire and find some value while it’s still out there.

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April 21, 2016 6:00 am

The Quinton: The Big Trade, Untouchables, and Storytelling

1

Jeff Quinton

A look at the obstacles to fantasy blockbusters and how we might overcome them.

Onward—always onward—the calendar tacitly mandates. Auctions and drafts are now the past. Closing in on us is the in-season trade market.

Most of the leagues in which I participate do not see heavy trade activity at this point of the season. The adjective “heavy” in this instance (when affected by the preceding “not”) describes both the volume of trades (minimal) and the magnitude of trades (minor). But, once every so often, maybe once a season, maybe even less frequently, a big trade gets made. If we expand our requirements to include the entire season, not just the beginnings of the trade season, then we will still usually only find a few big trades.

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April 21, 2016 6:00 am

The Things We Believe: A Cy Young Repeat and a Sophomore Slump

1

Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

Mike and Bret share their bold predictions for the 2016 season.

Forecasting the future is notoriously difficult. Just ask PECOTA. One of the most compelling reasons we watch baseball is that it serves as a daily reminder that reality is infinitely complex and nothing is ever certain. Mike Trout’s greatness is the lone constant in the baseball universe. This week at Baseball Prospectus, we're giving a new look and feel to the bold predictions pieces that generally are written in the second half of March. Yes, those are written to help you with drafts, but those drafts are ancient history at this point. What we're aiming at here is what we still believe to be true after two weeks of games are in the books. So, call them bold predictions if you will, but these are some things that we believe.

I Firmly Believe: Jake Arrieta will win the Cy Young Award again.
After a legendary season where he posted a ridiculous 1.77 ERA and an absurd 0.41 ERA in his last 12 regular season starts, the cries of regression were inevitable and understandable. A strand rate of 80 percent combined with a .246 BABIP did give the impression that there is some room for slippage in Arrieta’s overall numbers. No one sensible would dispute this idea. However, the pitcher that you are left with for 2016 is still pretty damn special.


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Greg projects near-term fantasy returns from two players with murky paths to the majors, while J.P. believes in two veterans' soaring pop and punchout production.

I Firmly Believe: Colin Moran will return the most value among Astros third basemen

Through the season’s first 13 games, the Astros third basemen are hitting .186/.250/.237. The division of labor is roughly two-thirds Luis Valbuena, one-third Marwin Gonzalez, and a dusting of Matt Duffy. As the primary incumbent and strong side of the platoon, Valbuena holds the keys to whether this prediction has any chance of coming to fruition.

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Wilson examines a few worm-burners who benefit from the glovemen behind them and a few flyball hurlers whose outfielders cramp their style.

Last week I took a look at some groundball pitchers whose tendencies are wasted to a degree in front of poor infield defenses, as well as some flyball pitchers built fairly well for their outfield defenses and park contexts. This week (and with the added benefit of more current data!) we’ll turn the tables and look at the other half of the equation: groundball guys in good places and flyball guys in bad places. The additional week-plus of games allows us to at least peak at some of the early season trends that, while far from definitive, are at least starting to take some shape now. This won’t be nearly as helpful of a list, from the standpoint that a lot of the grounder guys are well-known and the fly ball culprits are all pretty comfortable on “Do Not Start!” lists near and far. Still, with the clearer early-season trends I think there’s some value in incorporating these returns into a list of fringier guys who may be somewhat more or less interesting given how their particular skills set jive with their supporting contexts.

Groundball Guys with Good Infield Defenses

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April 19, 2016 6:00 am

Closer Report: Week Two

9

Matt Collins

Surveying the ninth-inning situations around the league.

Week Two was another relatively quiet week on the closer front, though there was one big injury and a few noteworthy performances. The updated closer grid can be found here. Let’s get to it.

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April 18, 2016 8:00 am

The Things We Believe: Scary Sliders and Young Studs

0

George Bissell and J.J. Jansons

George and J.J. share their bold predictions, featuring two starter sliding into the elite and a potential well-kept secret star on the left side of the infield.

Forecasting the future is notoriously difficult. Just ask PECOTA. One of the most compelling reasons we watch baseball is that it serves as a daily reminder that reality is infinitely complex and nothing is ever certain. Mike Trout’s greatness is the lone constant in the baseball universe. This week at Baseball Prospectus, we're giving a new look and feel to the bold predictions pieces that generally are written in the second half of March. Yes, those are written to help you with drafts, but those drafts are ancient history at this point. What we're aiming at here is what we still believe to be true after two weeks of games are in the books. So, call them bold predictions if you will, but these are some things that we believe.

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April 18, 2016 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: David Price

3

J.P. Breen

Is now the right time to try to snatch the Red Sox lefty from a fretting fantasy owner?

Fantasy baseball is designed to mirror real-life baseball. It allows the average fan to “play GM,” and it’s one of the main reasons why dynasty leagues, especially deep dynasty leagues, are skyrocketing in popularity. We all want to build rosters, identify talent, and see how we stack up to our buddies.

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