The team isn’t playing that badly. They’re unlucky, not untalented. They’re hitting the ball hard, but right at people. It’ll turn around. We put together a competitive team, but losing streaks happen to even the best teams. We have all the pieces. See, Monday we had pitching, and Tuesday our bats came up big, and on Wednesday we played solid defense. It’s just that we can’t put it all together. You can see that once we’re firing on all cylinders, we’re going to win a lot of games.
One thing about playing fantasy baseball: it forces you to ask–and answer–some questions you’d otherwise never think twice about. One of the ones a friend and I debated this past off-season was: Is Phillies outfielder Pat Burrell worth keeping for the 2004 season?
For what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus 2004 had this to say about Burrell: “Burrell’s batting average dropped 73 points from 2002 to 2003, the 42nd-largest drop in history for a player with 500 at-bats in both seasons. That’s bad enough, but there’s only one other player above him who, like him, didn’t hit .300 before plummeting. What happened?”
Thing is, batting average is one of the most volatile stats in baseball; when it spikes, we call it a “career year,” and when it falls off a cliff we call it…well, a lot of things, not many of them printable. But take another look: While Burrell’s batting average declined in 2003, his hitting peripherals–patience and power–remained very close to levels which he’d previously achieved…
The Astros say goodbye to Jimy Williams. The Cardinals keep plugging along, nursing a seven-game lead in the NL Central. And the Rangers have enjoyed one of the greatest home-field advantages in the league this year. All this and much more news from Houston, St. Louis, and Texas in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
So, I guess I need to open with an explanation…
Tuesday’s column was written Monday night, before the 2004 All-Star Game had been
played. I thought it might be fun to do a diary for the game in advance of it,
using the same format I used in ’03 and
’01,
and writing it as if I was doing so during the game.
I did such a good job of selling it–or such a poor job of selling the
satire–that I got a bunch of e-mails wondering what the hell I was talking about.
My fault for not being over-the-top enough, and for talking Jonah out of a
disclaimer atop the original piece. If you were confused or didn’t enjoy the
piece, please accept my apology.
With the real All-Star Game out of the way–and playing for home-field
advantage for every World Series game for the rest of the millennium wouldn’t
have saved that snoozer–it’s time to look forward to the second half. This is
shaping up to be a tremendous stretch run, with four divisions pretty much too
close to call, and a National League in which 12 teams can consider themselves
playoff contenders. We have some great individual performances to watch, trade
talk is ramping up daily, and baseball has the stage to itself for a few
weeks.
So it’s time for me to put it on the line and make my midseason calls. One
thing, before I get into all this: I have a stubborn streak, and I’m inclined
to believe that the evaluations I made in April still have merit. So for me to change a prediction takes a lot.
After graduating from college six weeks ago, I decided to embark on a classic post-college road trip (a.k.a. postponing Real Life). I eventually found myself in Houston, just in time for the All-Star Game. Given that I had less money in my bank account than the face value of the cheapest ticket to the All-Star Game, I knew scalpers weren’t going to be my route into Minute Maid Park. My mission became clear–find a way into the All-Star Game without spending a dime.