Final 2002 Postseason Reliever Evaluation Tools Report

by Michael Wolverton


Just for grins, we tracked the reliever evaluation numbers throughout the postseason. This report rates relievers according to a variety of metrics, all of which are based on the notion of run expectation -- how many runs are expected to score given the bases/outs state when the reliever entered and/or left the game. The advantage of these metrics is that they do a reasonable job of handling two factors that are poorly handled by traditional statistics based on runs charged: how the reliever handles his inherited runners, and the support the reliever gets when he turns runners over to others. Overall run prevention is measured by Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP), a park-adjusted extension to a tool developed by Gary Skoog and Steve Schulman, which measures how run expectation changes between the time the reliever enters the game and the time he exits. The entire set of tools is described in an article, and you can see a detailed definition from the glossary of any stat used below by clicking on the column heading. You can also see the final 2002 regular season numbers.

Best & Worst o Under- & Overrated o Gave Most & Least Help o Received Most & Least Help o Team Rankings o Team-by-Team Stats



(Numbers through end of 2002 postseason)

Top 10 ML Relievers (ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented):
Pitcher       Team     IP    R   ARA   APR     IRP   BRS     RRA   ARP
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percival,T     ANA     9.7   3  2.68   2.1     0.8   0.0    2.08   2.8
Donnelly,B     ANA    13.0   6  3.98   1.0    -0.5  -2.1    2.81   2.7
Lohse,K        MIN     5.0   0  0.00   2.6     0.0   0.0    0.00   2.6
Rodriguez,F    SFG    13.3   4  3.07   2.4     0.2   0.3    2.92   2.6
Fassero,J      STL     3.3   0  0.00   1.7     1.0   0.0   -2.07   2.5
Holmes,D       ATL     2.7   0  0.00   1.4     0.9   0.1   -2.74   2.2
Gryboski,K     ATL     3.7   0  0.00   1.9     0.3   0.0   -0.54   2.1
Rueter,K       SFG     4.0   0  0.00   2.1     0.0   0.0    0.00   2.1
Helling,R      ARI     4.0   0  0.00   2.1     0.0   0.0    0.00   2.1
Zerbe,C        SFG     6.0   3  5.11  -0.3     1.6  -0.5    1.70   2.0

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Bottom 5 ML Relievers (ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented):
Pitcher       Team     IP    R   ARA   APR     IRP   BRS     RRA   ARP
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weber,B        ANA     8.3  10 10.36  -5.3    -1.0  -1.5   11.46  -6.3
Shields,S      ANA     1.7   5 25.90  -3.9    -0.6   0.0   37.71  -6.1
Lilly,T        OAK     4.0   6 12.94  -3.7    -1.3   0.4   17.27  -5.6
Aybar,M        SFG     2.7   2  7.66  -0.9    -2.6   0.0   17.57  -3.8
Fiore,T        MIN     1.3   3 19.76  -2.2    -1.6   0.0   30.32  -3.8

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Top 5 ML Relievers at preventing inherited runners from scoring
(Ranked by Inherited Runs Prevented)
Pitcher       Team   IRnr EIRs   IR   EIRf   IRP
-------------------------------------------------
Santana,Jo     MIN     7   2.4    0    0.4   1.8
Zerbe,C        SFG     5   1.6    0    0.0   1.6
Fassero,J      STL     5   1.0    0    0.0   1.0
Holmes,D       ATL     3   2.0    1    0.0   0.9
Percival,T     ANA     4   0.8    0    0.0   0.8

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Bottom 5 ML Relievers at preventing inherited runners from scoring
(Ranked by Inherited Runs Prevented)
Pitcher       Team   IRnr EIRs   IR   EIRf   IRP
-------------------------------------------------
Aybar,M        SFG     4   1.9    4    0.0  -2.6
Rodriguez,Fr   ANA     6   2.5    5    0.0  -2.4
Nen,R          SFG     8   3.1    5    0.0  -2.3
Fultz,A        SFG     8   2.2    3    1.3  -2.2
Fiore,T        MIN     2   0.4    2    0.0  -1.6

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Received Most Help: 5 ML Relievers most bailed out by others
(Ranked by Bequeathed Runs Saved)
Pitcher       Team   OBRnr  EBR  BR     BRS
--------------------------------------------
Remlinger,M    ATL     3    2.0   1     0.9
Eyre,S         SFG     4    0.6   0     0.7
Kline,S        STL     4    0.7   0     0.7
Veres,D        STL     3    0.5   0     0.7
White,R        STL     3    0.7   0     0.6

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Received Least Help: 5 ML Relievers least bailed out by others
(Ranked by Bequeathed Runs Saved)
Pitcher       Team   OBRnr  EBR  BR     BRS
--------------------------------------------
Worrell,T      SFG     6    2.7   5    -2.8
Donnelly,B     ANA     5    1.8   4    -2.1
Weber,B        ANA     5    1.6   3    -1.5
Romero,J       MIN     3    0.7   2    -1.2
Lackey,J       ANA     3    0.9   2    -1.0

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5 ML Relievers most underrated by conventional
run assignment (ranked by ARP - APR)
Pitcher       Team     IRP   BRS    ARA    RRA     APR    ARP    Diff.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Worrell,T      SFG     0.4  -2.8   7.86   5.14    -4.6   -0.7     3.9
Santana,Jo     MIN     1.8  -0.5   8.32   4.96    -2.6   -0.2     2.4
Zerbe,C        SFG     1.6  -0.5   5.11   1.70    -0.3    2.0     2.3
Donnelly,B     ANA    -0.5  -2.1   3.98   2.81     1.0    2.7     1.7
Mantei,M       ARI     0.0  -1.0  50.57  16.12    -1.7   -0.4     1.3

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5 ML Relievers most overrated by conventional
run assignment (ranked by ARP - APR)
Pitcher       Team     IRP   BRS    ARA    RRA     APR    ARP    Diff.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Rodriguez,Fr   ANA    -2.4   0.4   2.31   3.92     4.9    1.5    -3.3
Nen,R          SFG    -2.3   0.3   1.14   4.12     3.5    0.5    -3.0
Aybar,M        SFG    -2.6   0.0   7.66  17.57    -0.9   -3.8    -2.9
Shields,S      ANA    -0.6   0.0  25.90  37.71    -3.9   -6.1    -2.2
White,R        STL    -1.3   0.6   4.72   7.93    -0.0   -2.2    -2.1

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Team Bullpen Totals (teams ranked by Adjusted Runs Prevented):
Team     IP    R    ARA    APR      RRA    ARP
-----------------------------------------------
ATL     19.3    5  2.31    5.1     2.39    4.9
STL     23.3    6  2.43    5.8     3.71    2.5
SFG     60.3   26  4.40    1.7     4.87   -1.4
OAK     16.3   10  5.28   -1.1     6.14   -2.7
ARI      9.3    9  8.13   -3.6     7.73   -3.2
NYY     16.7   11  5.72   -2.0     6.55   -3.5
ANA     59.7   32  4.63    0.2     5.34   -4.5
MIN     27.3   24  7.71   -9.3     7.72   -9.3
-----------------------------------------------
ML     232.3  123  4.78   -3.2     5.33  -17.2

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Team-by-team stats:

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS          Park Effect: +17.8%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher       G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fetters,M     1   0.7   0  0.00   0.3  3.00   1.52   -0.4  0.0  7.10  -0.2
Helling,R     2   4.0   0  0.00   2.1  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  0.00   2.1
Kim,B         1   1.0   2 16.86  -1.4  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0 19.17  -1.6
Koplove,M     1   1.3   1  6.32  -0.2  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.4  8.04  -0.5
Mantei,M      1   0.3   2 50.57  -1.7  0.00   0.00    0.0 -1.0 16.12  -0.4
Myers,M       2   1.7   0  0.00   0.9  0.50   0.23    0.4  0.0 -1.85   1.2
Swindell,G    2   0.3   4101.14  -3.6  1.50   0.46   -0.9 -0.4105.61  -3.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS       10   9.3   9  8.13  -3.6  0.70   0.29              7.73  -3.2


ATLANTA BRAVES                Park Effect: +5.4%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher       G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gryboski,K    3   3.7   0  0.00   1.9  0.67   0.12    0.3  0.0 -0.54   2.1
Hammond,C     3   2.7   2  6.70  -0.6  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.3  7.37  -0.8
Holmes,D      3   2.7   0  0.00   1.4  1.00   0.65    0.9  0.1 -2.74   2.2
Ligtenberg,K  1   2.0   0  0.00   1.0  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  0.00   1.0
Moss,D        2   3.0   1  2.98   0.6  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  3.80   0.3
Remlinger,M   3   2.0   1  4.46   0.0  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.9  8.21  -0.8
Smoltz,J      2   3.3   1  2.68   0.7  0.50   0.07    0.1  0.0  2.40   0.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS       17  19.3   5  2.31   5.1  0.35   0.14              2.39   4.9


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS           Park Effect: -6.1%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher       G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crudale,M     2   2.7   2  7.09  -0.7  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  7.42  -0.8
Fassero,J     4   3.3   0  0.00   1.7  1.25   0.25    1.0  0.0 -2.07   2.5
Isringhausen  4   4.0   1  2.36   1.0  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  2.40   1.0
Kline,S       6   3.7   0  0.00   1.9  0.83   0.13   -0.5  0.7  3.01   0.7
Veres,D       2   3.7   0  0.00   1.9  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.7  1.50   1.3
White,R       5   6.0   3  4.72  -0.0  1.00   0.22   -1.3  0.6  7.93  -2.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS       23  23.3   6  2.43   5.8  0.65   0.13              3.71   2.5


SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS          Park Effect: -21.0%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher       G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aybar,M       2   2.7   2  7.66  -0.9  2.00   0.96   -2.6  0.0 17.57  -3.8
Eyre,S       10   6.0   1  1.70   2.0  0.30   0.06    0.4  0.7  2.49   1.4
Fultz,A       5   2.7   2  7.66  -0.9  1.60   0.44   -2.2 -0.8 13.81  -2.7
Nen,R        10   9.0   1  1.14   3.5  0.80   0.31   -2.3  0.3  4.12   0.5
Rodriguez,F  13  13.3   4  3.07   2.4  0.54   0.16    0.2  0.3  2.92   2.6
Rueter,K      1   4.0   0  0.00   2.1  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  0.00   2.1
Witasick,J    5   3.7   3  8.36  -1.5  0.80   0.14   -0.7  0.1 11.56  -2.8
Worrell,T    13  13.0  10  7.86  -4.6  0.15   0.03    0.4 -2.8  5.14  -0.7
Zerbe,C       3   6.0   3  5.11  -0.3  1.67   0.53    1.6 -0.5  1.70   2.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS       62  60.3  26  4.40   1.7  0.66   0.20              4.87  -1.4


ANAHEIM ANGELS                Park Effect: +4.5%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher       G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Donnelly,B   11  13.0   6  3.98   1.0  0.55   0.17   -0.5 -2.1  2.81   2.7
Lackey,J      2   5.3   2  3.24   0.8  1.50   0.44   -1.1 -1.0  3.24   0.8
Percival,T    9   9.7   3  2.68   2.1  0.44   0.09    0.8  0.0  2.08   2.8
Rodriguez,Fr 11  18.7   5  2.31   4.9  0.55   0.22   -2.4  0.4  3.92   1.5
Schoeneweis,  6   3.0   1  2.88   0.6  0.83   0.17   -0.7 -0.3  4.26   0.1
Shields,S     1   1.7   5 25.90  -3.9  1.00   0.51   -0.6  0.0 37.71  -6.1
Weber,B       9   8.3  10 10.36  -5.3  0.33   0.11   -1.0 -1.5 11.46  -6.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS       49  59.7  32  4.63   0.2  0.57   0.17              5.34  -4.5


MINNESOTA TWINS               Park Effect: +1.1%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher       G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fiore,T       1   1.3   3 19.76  -2.2  2.00   0.36   -1.6  0.0 30.32  -3.8
Guardado,E    3   3.0   3  8.78  -1.4  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  8.60  -1.3
Hawkins,L     7   3.7   3  7.19  -1.0  0.57   0.16    0.7 -0.1  5.34  -0.3
Jackson,M     4   1.7   3 15.81  -2.1  1.00   0.30   -1.3  0.4 24.82  -3.7
Lohse,K       3   5.0   0  0.00   2.6  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  0.00   2.6
Romero,J      7   5.3   5  8.23  -2.1  1.43   0.48   -0.8 -1.2  7.25  -1.5
Santana,Jo    6   6.3   6  8.32  -2.6  1.17   0.39    1.8 -0.5  4.96  -0.2
Wells,B       2   1.0   1  8.78  -0.5  1.00   0.27   -0.4  0.0 13.69  -1.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS       33  27.3  24  7.71  -9.3  0.88   0.27              7.72  -9.3


NEW YORK YANKEES              Park Effect: +3.9%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher       G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hernandez,O   2   6.3   2  2.74   1.4  0.50   0.11    0.2  0.0  2.52   1.5
Karsay,S      4   2.7   2  6.50  -0.5  0.25   0.10   -0.6 -0.1  7.95  -1.0
Mendoza,R     2   1.3   2 12.99  -1.2  1.50   0.25   -1.4  0.2 24.59  -3.0
Rivera,M      1   1.0   0  0.00   0.5  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  0.00   0.5
Stanton,M     3   2.7   3  9.74  -1.5  1.33   0.43    0.3 -0.6  7.26  -0.8
Weaver,J      2   2.7   2  6.50  -0.5  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.3  7.44  -0.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS       14  16.7  11  5.72  -2.0  0.64   0.17              6.55  -3.5


OAKLAND ATHLETICS             Park Effect: +4.7%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher       G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bowie,M       1   1.3   0  0.00   0.7  2.00   0.42    0.4  0.0 -2.42   1.0
Bradford,C    2   3.0   0  0.00   1.6  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  0.00   1.6
Koch,B        3   3.0   3  8.62  -1.3  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  8.60  -1.3
Lidle,C       1   1.0   1  8.62  -0.4  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  8.60  -0.4
Lilly,T       2   4.0   6 12.94  -3.7  1.00   0.34   -1.3  0.4 17.27  -5.6
Mecir,J       1   1.0   0  0.00   0.5  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  0.00   0.5
Rincon,R      2   3.0   0  0.00   1.6  0.00   0.00    0.0  0.0  0.00   1.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS       12  16.3  10  5.28  -1.1  0.33   0.09              6.14  -2.7


Multi-team pitcher totals:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher    Team  G   IP    R   ARA   APR IRnr/G EIRs/G   IRP  BRS   RRA   ARP
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


MAJOR LEAGUE Totals:
---------------------------------------------------------
   G     IP     R    ARA  APR  IRnr/G EIRs/G    RRA   ARP
---------------------------------------------------------
  220   232.3  123  4.78  -3.2  0.63   0.19    5.33 -17.2

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Comments and questions welcome. Copyright © 2002 Michael Wolverton.


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