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04-21

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Polling the Industry: Pick a Shortstop Superprospect
by
Jason Parks

04-08

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Derek's Guide to Becoming a Fan Favorite
by
Derek Zumsteg

03-09

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Throwdown: Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner
by
Doug Thorburn

03-09

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: The 2007 Interview
by
David Laurila

03-06

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Who Will Be MLB’s First $300 Million Player?
by
Maury Brown

03-04

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Can Spring Training Slugging Really Predict Breakouts?
by
Jon Shepherd and Ben Lindbergh

02-18

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Remembering Jason Giambi's Career
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-29

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: The Science of Forecasting
by
Nate Silver

11-19

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Internet Commenters Try to Trade for Giancarlo Stanton
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-05

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Farewell, Alfonso Soriano
by
BP Staff

10-21

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Fourteen Years of Brian Roberts
by
BP Prospect Staff

10-08

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: So Long, Josh Beckett
by
BP Staff

09-29

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: So long Abreu; Farewell, Willingham
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-24

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Dayton Moore's First Week
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-18

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: The Many Moments of Paul Konerko
by
BP Staff

09-09

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: A Fan's Quandary/A New Low
by
Derek Zumsteg

08-26

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: King Felix Arrives
by
Jonah Keri

08-07

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: The Moral Hazards of the Hit Batsman
by
Dan Fox

07-16

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: Being There
by
Derek Zumsteg

04-03

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6

The BP Wayback Machine: Another Opening Day
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-11

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Rick Ankiel and Guillermo Mota: Two Careers in Player Comments
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-07

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Inside Tommy John Surgery
by
Will Carroll and Thomas Gorman

02-27

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Carl Pavano: A Career in Player Comments
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-20

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Agents, the Draft, and the NCAA
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-17

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Ryan Dempster and Jake Westbrook: Two Careers in Player Comments
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-13

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5

The BP Wayback Machine: Derek Jeter's Career in Player Comments
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-11

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Arbitration Negotiations
by
Tommy Bennett

01-31

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Which Players and Teams Look Best Over the Next Half-Decade?
by
Nate Silver

01-24

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Who Yu Gonna Call?
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-10

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Old You're In, You're Out
by
Joe Sheehan

01-03

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: The Nose Knows
by
Steven Goldman

12-26

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: The Money of Matsuzaka
by
Joe Sheehan

12-20

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Managing Expectations
by
Kevin Goldstein

12-10

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Winter Meetings Review
by
Joe Sheehan

11-26

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: The Guessing Game
by
Joe Sheehan

11-20

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: How to Make Up a Good Trade Rumor
by
Matt Swartz

11-07

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Today's Oxymoron is Free Agents
by
James Click

11-01

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: What Makes a Good World Series?
by
Tommy Bennett

10-22

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Game Last
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: New Ways to Spell Relief
by
Joe Sheehan

09-26

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7

The BP Wayback Machine: Tuesday Morning Ten Pack, 9/05/06
by
Kevin Goldstein

09-17

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Tiger Plan
by
Nate Silver

09-06

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Locking it Up: Does Clinching Early Help?
by
Mike Carminati

08-23

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Hatching Cardinals
by
Bryan Smith

07-26

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Development Disasters
by
Kevin Goldstein

06-07

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: The Source of the AL's Superiority
by
Matt Swartz

05-29

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: In the Slot
by
Gary Huckabay

05-24

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: How the Indians Were Built
by
Kevin Goldstein

05-03

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Hot Starts, Part III
by
Rany Jazayerli

04-25

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: There is No Divide
by
Derek Zumsteg

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Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Addison Russell or Javier Baez? We polled front office types and our prospect staff.

A year ago, when Addison Russell was still in High-A in the Oakland A's system, Jason Parks polled front office sources and the BP prospect staff about a simple question: Which elite shortstop prospect would they build their team around? With the call-up of Russell today, it's worth revisiting the responses.

The rise of the superstar shortstop prospect prompts preferential inquiries, as my email inbox, Twitter feed, and chat queues are continually maxed out with questions about Bogaerts, Baez, Correa, Lindor, and Russell, and if forced to choose, which one would I choose? The five chiseled heads on the modern Mount Rushmore of shortstop prospects (six if you go high on Mondesi) present a daily challenge of preference, a subjective exercise of forced selection tied to the realities of the present and the fantasies of the future, a tug-of-war we play with ropes made of tangible data, scouting memories of on-the-field motions, and the conceptual ideas of value and who will be most likely to achieve it.

Read the full article...

Why does Willie Bloomquist get to have all the fun? Derek Zumsteg writes in with a handy-dandy guide to becoming an MLB ballplayer, and a fan favorite to boot.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you periodic blasts from BP's past. Derek's advice to aspiring fan-favorites ran as a "Breaking Balls" column in August 2004.

I'm going to risk stamping a giant red expiration date on this column in this introductory paragraph: Paris Hilton has a book deal, and her proposal includes "an abbreviated version of her instructions to anyone on how to become an heiress and live a privileged life." The first is "1. Be born into the right family. Choose your chromosomes wisely."

Read the full article...

Two of the best young lefties in the game faced off. Doug broke it down.

In summer 2012, when Clayton Kershaw had just one Cy Young award and Madison Bumgarner had just one World Series ring, Doug Thorburn anticipated what has become a tremendous rivalry--if not to them, certainly to us. Two exceptional lefties in one of sports' best team-against-team rivalries, each under contract to his team through the end of this decade, each accomplished in a way no other current pitcher can claim. Thorburn's breakdown helps appreciate the similarities, the differences, and what sets each pitcher apart from his peers. This originally ran on Aug. 24, 2012.

Clayton Kershaw dominated the rival Giants last season, going 5-0 with a 1.07 ERA and a 49:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six starts and 42 innings, including a perfect four-for-four in head-to-head battles with San Francisco ace Tim Lincecum. Kershaw has held the Giants to a sub-2.00 ERA again in 2012, though he had come up on the short end of the decision in two of his three starts against them to Monday's match-up with Madison Bumgarner. It was the first meeting for two young southpaws who will likely be dueling out west for years to come.

Read the full article...

Sitting down with Kershaw the prospect.

In early 2007, David Laurila interviewed Clayton Kershaw. At the time, Kershaw had thrown just 56 pro innings, most of them for the Dodgers' complex team. Nobody knew at the time that in just 13 months Kershaw would be staring down Albert Pujols in the first inning of a very strong major-league debut. This interview originally ran on May 6, 2007.

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A 19-year-old left-hander, Clayton Kershaw is the top-rated prospect in the Dodgers organization. The first high school player taken in last year's draft and the seventh pick overall, Kershaw relies on a mid-nineties fastball with excellent command, an above-average curveball and a circle change. A native of Dallas, he has an advanced pitching approach for someone beginning just his first full professional season. Kershaw debuted in the Gulf Coast League last year, posting an ERA of 1.95 while holding opposing batters to a .201 average. He is starting this season with the Low-A Great Lakes Loons, managed by former Tigers great Lance Parrish. At the time David Laurila sat down with Kershaw, he was off to a good start, going 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA while striking out 28 in 19 innings through April 29.

Read the full article...

A look at ever-increasing player salaries and the player best-positioned to eclipse the $300 million mark

Giancarlo Stanton got his first at-bat of the spring Thursday, making him the first $300 million ballplayer to step onto a major-league field. (Whether he opts out midway through that contract is an open question, but no matter.) Three years ago, when we were still stuck at $275 million, Maury Brown wondered who would be the first player to break that threshold.

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"Professional baseball is on the wane. Salaries must come down or the interest of the public must be increased in some way. If one or the other does not happen, bankruptcy stares every team in the face." – Albert Spalding, 1881

Read the full article...

Examining an oft-cited method of predicting regular-season success from spring training stats.

This spring, you'll hear stats cited. You'll hear stats discounted, and from some of those discounters, you'll hear other stats cited. Two years ago, Ben Lindbergh and Jon Shepherd looked at one rule of thumb about spring training stats to see if it still held up.

It’s only natural to seek meaning in spring training statistics. By the time spring games roll around, we’re baseball-starved enough to believe anything. We’re also preparing for fantasy drafts, which means we’re always on the lookout for any info that could give us an edge. And contrary to the popular stathead saying, spring training stats aren’t actually meaningless—they’re just less meaningful, compared to a same-sized sample of big-league performance. Any change in a player’s performance should produce a corresponding (albeit small) change in our projection for that player. The more extreme that change in performance is, and the larger the sample, the more that projection shifts.

Read the full article...

All 20 BP Annual comments about Jason Giambi, from "all the clubhouse chicanery" to "the A’s riff on Tony Gwynn" to "Captain Graybeard."

Jason Giambi announced his retirement this week, ending one of the most unpredictable and enjoyable career arcs of any major-league star. Follow along from finish to start, as we reprint all 20 player comments about him from two decades of BP Annuals.

Read the full article...

Eleven years ago, Nate Silver considered PECOTA.

On March 11, 2004, Nate Silver wrote the following about forecasting.

Call yourself a forecaster and you're sure to get some dirty looks. It's a cultural tradition, at least in the parts of our country that has seasons, to criticize the accuracy of a weather forecast (you call this partly cloudy, Mabel?). Political pundits--you know, the guys in the bowties--are ranked somewhere between child molester and petty thief on the social hierarchy. The stock market analysts that were the toast of the town just a couple of years ago are now seen as charlatans at best, criminals at worst.

Read the full article...

What the partisan parts of the internet think Miami's young All-Star outfielder is worth.

Before Giancarlo Stanton was a Marlin for life, he was your favorite team's next big trade target—or so everybody with an internet connection assumed. In January 2013, Ben Lindbergh looked at one of the seediest neighborhoods of the internet: The fake-Giancarlo-Stanton-trade block. Enjoy.

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Being a baseball rumormonger is a difficult job to do well. First, you spend years building a network of sources who can and will tell you interesting things about baseball teams. Even after you’ve collected your contacts, be prepared to put in long hours and work weekends to stay ahead of the story or be the first to break it. Don’t expect to sleep or be seen without a cell phone.

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The seven-time All-Star is calling it a career.

Few players have combined the speed, power and positional scarcity that the young Alfonso Soriano did; if nothing else, you'll remember him forever for that league you won (or lost) because of how incredible his fantasy production was. Soriano announced Tuesday that he will retire, so to honor the career of the only man ever traded for Brad Wilkerson, here are 15 years of Soriano's comments in the Baseball Prospectus Annual.

Read the full article...

Charting Brian Roberts' rise and fall with a trip through the BP archives.

You might never cheer for a team with a second baseman better than Brian Roberts was in 2005. His career ends on a sadder note, a half-decade ruined by injuries. In honor of his career, we're reprinting all 14 comments written about him for the BP Annual, from the first in 2001 ("after having surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow") through last winter's ("myriad injuries have limited..."). Enjoy.

Read the full article...

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October 8, 2014 6:00 am

The BP Wayback Machine: So Long, Josh Beckett

3

BP Staff

A decade and a half of player comments on a Texas-bred ace.

On Tuesday, Josh Beckett announced his retirement. Even by the standards of the typical #ycpb career, Beckett's career was full of twists. To honor the veteran's exit, we're rerunning 14 of his BP Annual player comments, written as he aged from elite prospect to injured old supermillionaire.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

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