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Resident Fantasy Genius 

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01-29

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9

Resident Fantasy Genius: Checking in on Fantasy Deals
by
Derek Carty

01-24

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: Outfield and Rotation Rumbles
by
Derek Carty

01-21

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15

Resident Fantasy Genius: Why AL-/NL-only Leagues are Superior to Mixed Leagues
by
Derek Carty

01-17

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10

Resident Fantasy Genius: The Losers Club
by
Derek Carty

01-14

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6

Resident Fantasy Genius: Safeco’s Overstated Impact on Fantasy Production
by
Derek Carty

01-10

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23

Resident Fantasy Genius: The Voting Travesty
by
Derek Carty

01-07

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6

Resident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Value Round-Up
by
Derek Carty

01-03

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Shakeups
by
Derek Carty

12-28

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12

Resident Fantasy Genius: Keep the Star, or Go for Value?
by
Derek Carty

12-20

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0

Resident Fantasy Genius: Fallout from Recent Moves
by
Derek Carty

12-17

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0

Resident Fantasy Genius: Assessing Recent Pitching Moves
by
Derek Carty

12-13

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9

Resident Fantasy Genius: Assessing Recent Deals
by
Derek Carty

12-10

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: A Manager's Impact on Steals
by
Derek Carty

12-07

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3

Resident Fantasy Genius: Valuing Offensive Players in New Homes
by
Derek Carty

12-05

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5

Resident Fantasy Genius: The Impact of Changing Teams on Fantasy Value
by
Derek Carty

11-30

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3

Resident Fantasy Genius: Closing in on Ninth-Inning Men
by
Derek Carty

11-26

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3

Resident Fantasy Genius: Reviewing This Offseason's Moves
by
Derek Carty

11-19

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5

Resident Fantasy Genius: Scouting Hyun-Jin Ryu
by
Derek Carty

11-15

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4

Resident Fantasy Genius: Reviewing Our 10 Bold Fantasy Predictions
by
Derek Carty

11-12

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4

Resident Fantasy Genius: The Value Picks We Got Right
by
Derek Carty

11-05

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4

Resident Fantasy Genius: Q&A with Brian Kenny
by
Derek Carty

10-29

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3

Resident Fantasy Genius: The Ones We Got Wrong
by
Derek Carty

10-22

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4

Resident Fantasy Genius: The Ones We Got Right
by
Derek Carty

10-01

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17

Resident Fantasy Genius: The 2012 Fantasy Fantasy Awards
by
Derek Carty

09-27

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1

Resident Fantasy Genius: Revisiting the Foreign Imports
by
Derek Carty

09-24

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: Low-Cost Saves for Your Keeper League
by
Derek Carty

09-20

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0

Resident Fantasy Genius: One-Category Saviors: Strikeouts, Wins
by
Derek Carty

09-17

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1

Resident Fantasy Genius: Where to Find Last-Minute Steals, Homers
by
Derek Carty

09-14

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: Where to Find a Save (or Two)
by
Derek Carty

09-10

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0

Resident Fantasy Genius: Using ISO to Legitimize High/Low BABIPs?
by
Derek Carty

09-06

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7

Resident Fantasy Genius: Chasing Wins
by
Derek Carty

08-30

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1

Resident Fantasy Genius: Avoiding the Late-Season Ratio Trap
by
Derek Carty

08-20

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11

Resident Fantasy Genius: Six Starters for the Desperate Owner
by
Derek Carty

08-16

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11

Resident Fantasy Genius: A Summer Success Story
by
Derek Carty

08-13

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11

Resident Fantasy Genius: How to Handle 'Dump Trades'
by
Derek Carty

08-09

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18

Resident Fantasy Genius: Improving Your Team, or Butting In?
by
Derek Carty

08-06

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5

Resident Fantasy Genius: Winners, Losers of Trades That Didn't Happen
by
Derek Carty

08-02

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3

Resident Fantasy Genius: Rating the Fantasy Impact of the Trade Deadline
by
Derek Carty

07-30

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: Rating the Fantasy Impact of the Weekend's Transactions
by
Derek Carty

07-26

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5

Resident Fantasy Genius: Rating the Fantasy Impact of the Week's Trades
by
Derek Carty

07-23

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: Getting Aggressive With 10 Weeks To Go
by
Derek Carty

07-19

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3

Resident Fantasy Genius: Time to Get Real Value
by
Derek Carty

07-16

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3

Resident Fantasy Genius: To Platoon or Not to Platoon?
by
Derek Carty

07-12

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9

Resident Fantasy Genius: Quit Wasting Your Depth
by
Derek Carty

07-09

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1

Resident Fantasy Genius: Making the Most of Midseason Free Agents
by
Derek Carty

07-05

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0

Resident Fantasy Genius: Thome Trade Tests AL-Only Managers
by
Derek Carty

07-02

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9

Resident Fantasy Genius: Does the Knuckleball Discriminate?
by
Derek Carty

06-25

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6

Resident Fantasy Genius: Potential League-Hoppers, AL-to-NL Edition
by
Derek Carty

06-22

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4

Resident Fantasy Genius: Starting Pitchers to Target
by
Derek Carty

06-18

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: Seven Magnificent Player Recommendations
by
Derek Carty

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September 27, 2012 9:24 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Revisiting the Foreign Imports

1

Derek Carty

Earlier this year, Derek wrote about what to expect from the most-hyped foreign players. Did the players comply?

Prior to the season, I spoke with a number of scouts and talent evaluators to try to get a read on the various international imports fantasy players would have to make decisions on in their drafts. Today, I wanted to take a look back and see how well we were able to predict their performance here in the United States.

Yu Darvish | Texas Rangers | SP
Darvish was the most hyped international product to make the jump to Major League Baseball in years, and for the most part, I advised optimism in regard to his chances for success, and I even wound up drafting him on one team. As I summarized when I did my midseason check-in, my preseason Darvish sentiment boiled down to three main points: “1) He has ridiculous stuff and upside, 2) He has just average command, and 3) He has terrific makeup, which should help with the multi-faceted, often-difficult transition to MLB.”


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September 24, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Low-Cost Saves for Your Keeper League

2

Derek Carty

Investing in top non-closers now could save you loads of money next draft day.

For the past five years, as the season winds down, I’ve made it a habit of discussing one of my favorite keeper league strategies: stashing potential closers.  This, of course, isn’t viable in every single keeper league based on format, depth, and rule quirks, but in leagues where it is, it can be a powerful way of accruing cheap value for your 2013 squad before the 2012 season even ends.

The Strategy
As I discussed the strategy in detail last season, I’ll simply repost for those who are new to BP:


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September 20, 2012 9:03 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: One-Category Saviors: Strikeouts, Wins

0

Derek Carty

If an extra two wins or an extra two dozen strikeouts will make a big difference in your standings, here's where to look.

Over the past week, I’ve discussed the importance of prioritizing categorical impact over raw value with the season nearing an end. At this point I think I’ve given the concept more press than Psy is getting, and while "Gangnam Style" becomes no less brilliant play after play, I fear me talking anymore about this would have the opposite effect.  So, I’ll simply point you towards my one-category contributor articles for saves and homers and steals and invisible horse dance my way onto the meat of today’s article...

Wins
The best strategy when chasing wins is to play the match-ups, if you have the luxury of doing so in leagues with daily transactions and/or deep-ish free agent pools.  Ideally, you’ll target pitchers with good skills and potent offenses who are facing weak offenses.  Mixing and matching is almost certain to be better than rolling with a single starter come hell or high water.  Still, if you need to for whatever reason, here are a few to consider.


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September 17, 2012 9:43 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Where to Find Last-Minute Steals, Homers

1

Derek Carty

Playing for one category might make sense this late in the season. Here are some limited players who might nonetheless pick up a point or two for you.

On Thursday, I discussed the importance of managing your categorical needs at this time of year.  By this point in the season, you could actually make a case for dropping certain would-be stars like Adam Dunn or Michael Bourn if their categories are no longer of use to you (and if you’re certain enough they won’t fall into the hands of a competitor that needs what they offer).  On the flip side, players that you might have turned your nose up at earlier in the year may now be incredibly appealing.  Because there is so little time left in the year, a couple of home runs or steals could mean a point or two in the standings.  And if this is the case, the crappy batting average that is likely to come with it probably doesn’t matter to you.  As I always say, it’s all about context.  So today I return with some more one-category wonders that are worth considering for a final championship push.

Home Runs
My Mitch Moreland obsession is far from a secret.  He was one of my preseason sleepers and I drafted him everywhere.  As little love as the guy gets outside of these pages, he has 25-homer power at worst.  Especially if you have the luxury of picking the days you play him (he sits against lefties), he could give you a couple of homers over the final weeks.


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September 14, 2012 9:34 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Where to Find a Save (or Two)

2

Derek Carty

If a couple saves could tilt the category, you should look under every rock this month.

As the season has progressed, I’ve discussed what I believe to be proper strategy when it comes to active roster construction, whether it be via trade, free agency, or your bench.  At this point in the season—that is to say, with a mere 19 days left—it shouldn’t be going out on too much of a limb to say that categorical stratification trumps all.  If you haven’t yet, take raw “value” and Old Yeller it (or White Fang it, depending on your preferred fictional canine reference).  Whether you chase it away or pull out all the stops and take it out back and shoot it, just get rid of the notion of “value in a vacuum” so you’re not tempted to play with it and catch rabies (or whatever threat White Fang posed—I never claimed to be an expert).

At this juncture, it doesn’t matter that Michael Bourn is one of the top-ranked players in the PFM if you have no room to move up or down in steals.  There’s precious little time left, and guys that are still left on the waiver wire aren’t likely to be especially valuable overall.  But if you can uncover a couple of one-category gems, that could be all you need to propel your team a few points in the standings.  It doesn’t matter if Anthony Gose strikes out nearly as much as Adam Dunn; if you need steals, he might as well be Albert Pujols to your team.  Because of this dynamic, I’ll be spending today and Monday discussing some players who surely have flaws but who can provide a serious jolt if you need what they provide.

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September 10, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Using ISO to Legitimize High/Low BABIPs?

0

Derek Carty

BABIP spikes may be tough to read, but adding another unstable stat to the mix doesn't seem to help.

Last week, industry colleague Michael Salfino penned an interesting article for Yahoo! Sports discussing BABIP and how we might be able to tell legitimately good BABIPs apart from lucky ones (and legitimately bad BABIPs apart from unlucky ones).  A couple of you pointed the article out to me and asked for my take on it, so I thought it best to simply write up a post in case others were interested.  The article opens with:

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September 6, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Chasing Wins

7

Derek Carty

Wins might not mean much to a pitcher, but as our fantasy guru points out, they're important in fantasy leagues. Here are some tips to rack 'em up.

Last week, I discussed how little a fantasy squad’s ERA and WHIP is likely to move at this point in the season. Because of how many innings teams have already logged and how few will be logged between now and October 3 (both at the team and individual player level), it would take a lot to move the chains very far. I closed out the article noting how this can create some interesting strategic considerations, most prominently the decision to… gasp… chase wins.

“Don’t chase wins” has become a cliché in the fantasy community, something every good player knows is fantasy suicide. Except it’s not. This cliché was born, in part, from the sabermetric movement in general—you know, the one that says wins are a terrible gauge of a pitcher’s value. While this is generally true (at least in the sense that there are better gauges of pitcher value out there), it doesn’t have anything to do with fantasy baseball. Regardless of the utility of wins to judge a pitcher’s talent, we use it as a category in fantasy baseball. End of story. The link should end there. Yet, a lot of that stigma has carried over to the fantasy world.

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August 30, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Avoiding the Late-Season Ratio Trap

1

Derek Carty

As the trade deadline approaches, you might want to upgrade in your pitching-ratio categories. This might be a losing strategy.

If your league’s annual trade deadline hasn’t already passed, it’s likely that today or tomorrow will be the last day to make deals.  The remainder of my leagues’ deadlines will all pass within the next 48 hours, and I know that I’ll be in contact with almost every owner in the league in that time (if I haven’t already begun talks) to see what they’re looking to acquire, what they’re looking to deal, and how that fits with what I’m trying to do.  Today, I wanted to pass along one piece of advice that might be useful to you in your own dealings: be very careful when trying to move the needle on your ratios.

With five of six months very nearly in the books, it will be incredibly difficult to budge most ratios more than a few points.  Of course all situations are different and need to be evaluated independently, but this is a general rule that applies to nearly all fantasy teams at this time of year.  As a result, while that deal you have on the table for Clayton Kershaw may seem really appealing, it’s important to do your homework and make sure such an acquisition is truly going to have the desired effect.

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August 20, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Six Starters for the Desperate Owner

11

Derek Carty

Injuries and attrition have probably wiped out at least a portion of your rotation. Here are six pitchers with upside that are probably available.

As we pass the 75 percent mark of the 2012 season and approach the homestretch, the list of injured players only continues to grow.  Finding suitable replacements at this point in the year can be difficult, so I thought I’d look today at six pitchers who may be better than their ERAs indicate. For fantasy teams in need, no stone should be left unturned.  Whether you’re looking for permanent roster replacements or just spot-starters to pad your win and strikeout totals, these guys are all worth considering, especially when they have favorable match-ups.  Keep in mind that these players are best used in deeper leagues—don’t pass up Anibal Sanchez for Justin Germano just because he’s on my list—but some may at least warrant consideration even in medium-depth mixed leagues.

Marco Estrada | Milwaukee Brewers
Estrada has one of the largest differentials between his surface stats and peripherals in all of baseball, and that’s going to correct itself going forward.  He’s a fly-ball pitcher, but his strikeout rate remains excellent (8.7 K/9), and he’s made big strides with improving his control this season (1.9 BB/9).  He has a good offense supporting him for wins, and at just 5 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues, one could make a case that Estrada is most valuable unowned pitcher in fantasy baseball right now.


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With persistence, a plan and a few well-placed risks, Derek turned around a struggling Tout Wars team.

I’ve been talking a lot about theory lately, so I thought I’d lighten things up today and talk about my favorite subject: me.  More specifically, I wanted to update you on the progress of my Tout Wars team’s transformation. A couple weeks ago, I talked about how I approach making trades and offered up my Tout NL dealings as a real-life example.  That was in the midst of my process to turn my team into a contender, shifting my resources toward the categories that I could gain the most ground in.  My stated goals at the time basically boiled down to:

1.     Get saves

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August 13, 2012 8:51 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: How to Handle 'Dump Trades'

11

Derek Carty

Different teams have different priorities at this time of the year. Are steps needed to keep it from becoming a problem?

On Thursday, I discussed my views on non-contenders trading with contenders in fantasy leagues and whether or not there should be special considerations when making such deals.  Naturally, this evolved into a discussion in the comments section on how this applies to keeper leagues versus redraft leagues, leading reader brucegilsen to request:

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August 9, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Improving Your Team, or Butting In?

18

Derek Carty

If you're out of the money, is it fair to your league's leaders to make trades that could affect the first-place finish? Is it fair not to?

Last week, fellow Tout Wars NL participant and industry friend Todd Zola sent out an email to all of the Tout and LABR warriors, asking each to give their brief thoughts for a roundtable he was putting together.  The question:

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