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01-16

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27

Prospectus Roundtable: Can Anyone Close?
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Baseball Prospectus

05-02

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15

Prospectus Roundtable: WPA
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Baseball Prospectus

01-25

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63

Prospectus Roundtable: Analyzing RoboPitcher
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Baseball Prospectus

01-10

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19

Prospectus Roundtable: BABIP and Line Drives
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Baseball Prospectus

08-14

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5

Prospectus Roundtable: The Problem with Young Pitchers Is...
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Baseball Prospectus

07-01

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28

Prospectus Roundtable: Fluke or No Fluke?
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Baseball Prospectus

06-15

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10

Prospectus Roundtable: Windy City Showdown Edition
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Baseball Prospectus

06-08

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44

Prospectus Roundtable: Fixing the Mets
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Baseball Prospectus

02-24

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Kendry Morales
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Baseball Prospectus

02-21

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects - Pitchers
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Baseball Prospectus

02-16

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects - Outfielders
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Baseball Prospectus

02-11

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects - Shortstops and Third Basemen
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Baseball Prospectus

02-09

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects - First Basemen and Second Basemen
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Baseball Prospectus

02-01

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects - Catchers
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Baseball Prospectus

10-01

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Ichiro!
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Baseball Prospectus

02-24

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Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part IV
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Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part III
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Baseball Prospectus

02-22

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Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part II
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Baseball Prospectus

02-21

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Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part I
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Baseball Prospectus

02-16

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: The Rodriguez-for-Soriano Deal
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Baseball Prospectus

12-10

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: The New Landscape
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Baseball Prospectus

07-01

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Mark Prior and Pitch Counts
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Baseball Prospectus

03-31

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Preseason Predictions Pontification
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Baseball Prospectus

12-20

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Jeff Kent, Kevin Millwood, and Erik Estrada
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Baseball Prospectus

10-11

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Bonds Bombs, Tomahawk Chops, and Suspect Management
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Baseball Prospectus

10-03

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Scioscia, Rueter, and More Playoff Fun
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Baseball Prospectus

09-03

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Strike's End
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Baseball Prospectus

10-09

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: The Division Series
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Baseball Prospectus

07-25

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Prospectus Roundtable: The Jermaine Dye Trade
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Baseball Prospectus

02-01

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Prospectus Roundtable: How the Sausage Was Made
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Baseball Prospectus

12-20

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Prospectus Roundtable: Five Days in the Big D
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Baseball Prospectus

12-12

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Prospectus Roundtable: Our Staff Offers Some Comments
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Baseball Prospectus

10-20

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Prospectus Roundtable: The World Series
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Baseball Prospectus

03-20

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Prospectus Roundtable: Realignment
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Baseball Prospectus

02-24

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Prospectus Roundtable: Al Martin to the Padres
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Baseball Prospectus

02-11

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Ken Griffey Trade
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Baseball Prospectus

02-02

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: John Rocker Suspension
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Baseball Prospectus

01-23

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Prospectus Roundtable: All hail Czar Bud
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Baseball Prospectus

10-13

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Prospectus Roundtable: Mets vs. Braves
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Baseball Prospectus

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Casey Kotchman or Prince Fielder? Chris Burke or Josh Barfield? The BP staff kicks around more prospects.

Today, the right side of the infield…

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February 1, 2005 12:00 am

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects - Catchers

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Baseball Prospectus

The first in a series of roundtables leading up to the release of the Top 50 Prospects list.

In the past, we've run those contributions as BP Roundtables after the list is announced in late February. This year, we'll be running a series of roundtables in advance of the list, leading up to the release of Baseball Prospectus 2005 in late February. The final list will be revealed here on February 22, and the book includes capsule evaluations of all 50 players, as well as 1500 others.

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Today or tomorrow, Ichiro Suzuki will set the record for most hits in a single-season, breaking a mark set 84 years ago. The BP crew looks at the achievement and the player.

Joe Sheehan: Is this record a little bit cheap? I think the guy is having a good as season as he can have playing the way he does. A .414 OBP and 13 net steals with good defense is a strong year, if not an MVP one. But his performance in September seems to have been reduced to hitting groundball singles in a specific effort to chase Sisler, and it just looks cheap to me. He has three extra bases in September, for an ISO of .026, and just four unintentional walks in 126 plate appearances. A couple of weeks ago, he bunted for a hit with a runner on second base and two men out in the sixth inning on a two-run game. I have no idea how that helps the team, or what might have happened if, say, Milton Bradley had done that.

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February 24, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part IV

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Baseball Prospectus

Let's compare J.J. Hardy and Bobby Crosby: Player Age EqBA/EqOBP/EqSLG Hardy 20 .240/.316/.380 Crosby 23 .273/.356/.490 Adjusted for park and league context, Crosby's numbers were much, much better. How to balance that against the age differential? I think the question becomes: How likely is it that Hardy will post a line of .273/.356/.490 or equivalent by the time that he's 23? It's possible, certainly, and it's also possible that he'll post a line even better than that. But I don't think that it's *probable*. That's a lot of improvement to make. PECOTA would put the possibility at somewhere around 25%, I'd think, and I think that's enough to render Crosby the stronger prospect.

Baseball Prospectus Top 40 Prospects Roundtables:
2003 Part II
2003 Part I
2001


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February 23, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part III

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Baseball Prospectus

Jeremy Reed had the best year of any player in the minors last year and has a very high probability of being an excellent player. I think a top-five ranking would be a just reward, and consistent with our emphasis on performance rather than tools. I absolutely do not understand why Reed would rank below Alexis Rios. He is Rios' equal in every attribute except for plate discipline, where he has a substantial advantage, and his PECOTA profile is considerably better. I don't think a couple of good weeks in Puerto Rico are enough to overcome that. Weeks is a stud and I think the objections to him are a bit overstated. I would like to get a scouting report or two on his defense, since his numbers were quite bad. I'm also not on board with the fear of ranking pitching prospects highly, though I'm sure there will be advocates for the opposite point of view. I think the *top* tier of pitching prospects is unusually good this year as compared with the top tier of hitting prospects, and I think we should make adjustments accordingly. If you want to get a bit more analytical about it, I don't think it's a matter of our overrating the risk associated with pitching prospects so much as it is our *underrating* the risk associated with offensive prospects, especially offensive prospects who have yet to reach Double-A. I like Marte a lot, and he has no real negatives, but placing him as high as #2 implies a scouting judgment of sorts; his numbers were good, but not overwhelming.

Baseball Prospectus Top 40 Prospects Roundtables:
2003 Part II
2003 Part I
2001


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February 22, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part II

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Baseball Prospectus

Wright or Marte, Marte or Wright. I love 'em both. I've put Andy Marte ahead for the moment, because of the 10-month age difference and because scouts seem to like him a lot more, but I really feel strongly that David Wright's as complete a prospect as there is in the game. I'd love to hear comments comparing the two, and Nate, I'd love to see what their PECOTA comps look like. Nobody else is that impressive. Dallas McPherson put up some serious numbers last year, and while some of that was in The Hangar in Rancho Cucamonga, he hit .314/.426/.569 in Arkansas. He doesn't have a great defensive reputation, but it's not terrible either, and he clearly outhit everyone else on this list. I don't know if anyone else deserves Top 50 consideration. I know people love the Greek God of Walks, but he hit .165/.295/.248 in Triple-A, over a 32-game sample. Of course, his full-season OBP was still .446, so... Chad Tracy hit .324 and his defense took a big step forward, but he doesn't do much more than hit singles, and it was Tucson. I respect that he's had two good seasons in a row, but he was in El Paso in 2002, so I'm not sure that means anything either. And as much as I hyped him a year ago, I have to concede that Brendan Harris may not be quite as good as I thought he was. But he's still a better prospect than almost anyone gives him credit for.

Baseball Prospectus Top 40 Prospects Roundtables:
2003 Part II
2003 Part I
2001


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February 21, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part I

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Baseball Prospectus

In preparing the annual top prospect list for Baseball Prospectus 2004, BP authors participated in the annual extended roundtable discussion of baseball's top prospects. The ranking and review process balanced translated statistics, scouting reports, and injury reports with the strong personal opinions of BP's finest…all with the goal of putting together the "best damn prospect list the world has ever seen." In Part I today we'll listen in on the discussion of the top prospects among pitchers, catchers, first basemen and second basemen. Parts II through IV will run Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. We'll also unveil the final list Tuesday, with the Top 50 prospects (we've expanded from prior years' Top 40) revealed. Rany Jazayerli will be along to discuss the Top 50 list and the process that went into compiling it in Tuesday night's Chat.

Baseball Prospectus Top 40 Prospects Roundtables:
2003 Part II
2003 Part I
2001


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Gary Huckabay: OK, the deal's not finalized yet, but just for a second, let's assume that the worst possible parameters of the deal (from the Rangers' perspective) reported in the media are true. The Rangers get Alfonso Soriano, a minor leaguer from a list of five, and pick up $67 million of the remaining money owed to Rodriguez. Do you see any way to justify this deal from the Rangers' standpoint? Personally, I don't. Soriano's not going to be exceptionally cheap himself, he's not close to being the ballplayer A-Rod is, and even if you assume--which I'm not comfortable doing--that A-Rod's contract is anomalous and an organizational albatross, there's certainly some real and non-negligible cost associated with this specific dump. Depending on the financial details of the deal, it's possible this deal could end up costing the Rangers money--when you factor in the $67 million, the contract Soriano will likely end up with after a year of puffy stats at The Ballpark in Arlington, the lost goodwill, and lost broadcast rights money.

Gary Huckabay: OK, the deal's not finalized yet, but just for a second, let's assume that the worst possible parameters of the deal (from the Rangers' perspective) reported in the media are true. The Rangers get Alfonso Soriano, a minor leaguer from a list of five, and pick up $67 million of the remaining money owed to Rodriguez.

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Sunday's deadline to tender arbitration offers to free agents triggered a lot of surprise moves and non-moves. BP authors kicked around some of the biggies, including the Braves' decision to non-tender Gary Sheffield, the Bartolo Colon signing, and the timing of the Michael Tucker deal.

David Cameron: The Mariners offered arbitration to one free agent. Not Mike Cameron. Not Arthur Rhodes. Pat Borders.

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July 1, 2003 12:00 am

Prospectus Roundtable: Mark Prior and Pitch Counts

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Baseball Prospectus

When Dusty Baker allowed Mark Prior to throw 126 pitches last Thursday against the Brewers, it was the final straw for Gary Huckabay. Huckabay threw in the towel and Prior with it, trading him straight up for Austin Kearns in a 24-team Scoresheet Baseball league. The deal inspired some discussion among the Baseball Prospectus staff.

Gary Huckabay: For the record, I ran screaming from Mark Prior yesterday, trading him away in BL-DwMurphy. I couldn't handle the risk. I'll take Austin Kearns and bet on my remaining arms.

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BP's authors shoot the breeze, giving their takes on their surprising AL West unanimity, the wide-open NL Central, the viability of Vlad for MVP and Mark Prior for Cy Young, and more.

AL West

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Featuring Jonah Keri, Jeff Bower, Chris Kahrl, Derek Zumsteg, Nate Silver, Jeff Hildebrand, Gary Huckabay, Dave Pease

[The signing of Jeff Kent and the 2003 Astros offense]

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