The Tigers and Yankees burned their aces to clinch their Division Series matchups with the Athletics and Orioles, respectively. Hence, they will have to make do with their number-two starters in Game One of the ALCS, which takes place in the Bronx. Here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for the opener:

After all that funny business, the American League ultimately settled into a scenario quite easily predicted all along: the Tigers against the Yankees in the ALCS. Not that there aren’t still surprises, even with the A’s and Orioles eliminated. The Tigers, for instance, aren’t the 1,000-run Tigers, but a club built on starting pitching good enough to win even when the offense is scoring only three runs per game. And the Yankees are, by choice, fielding an A-Rod-less team in the most crucial moments. There will be plenty of narratives in this series: The inevitability of Justin Verlander; the Triple Crown winner trying to punctuate the end of his season; the Yankees’ first postseason without Mariano Rivera; slumping veteran stars on the Yankees; the many overachieving adjectives about Derek Jeter; and, as always, Alex Rodriguez. They’re fine narratives, even if they’re not the ones we underdog-lovers were rooting for.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

For the second straight night, the Yankees and Orioles went to extra innings after pinch-hitter Raul Ibanez extended the game with one swing. This time, though, that swing produced a grounder to first, preserving a tie instead of erasing a lead. And this time, the Orioles got back to Baltimore basics and added another one-run victory to their tally, running their extra-innings record to 17-3.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Four division series, four Game Fives, and this one between the Cardinals and Nationals should decide the last team to advance—unless, of course, the Yankees and Orioles play extra innings again. If the Cardinals win, the no. 2-seeded Giants will enjoy home-field advantage in the NLCS; if the Nationals win, they will host Game One on Sunday as the senior circuit’s top regular-season team. First things first, here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for this evening’s contest:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

With a pitching matchup of two no. 4 starters in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Game Four had the ingredients to become a slugfest. Instead, the Orioles and Yankees combined for only three runs in a 2-1, 13-inning Baltimore win that set the stage for Game Five this afternoon. To get you ready before first pitch, here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for the winner-take-all Game Five:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

If you put enough gas in your spaceship and just keep flying, you’ll eventually get to a planet that looks just like this one. There’s a guy just like you and one just like me, and every letter the guy like you is reading was written exactly like the letters that I am actually writing. The only difference is that, on the other planet, Hideki Matsui was looking for a changeup, but Pedro Martinez threw him a fastball, and Matsui took it for a called strike three. The Red Sox kept their three-run lead. And it took eight years before Grady Little was ultimately scapegoated for a Boston loss and pushed out.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

They may have bought themselves a few extra minutes, but the clock finally struck midnight for the Cinderella Oakland A’s yesterday at O.co Coliseum. After keeping every game close throughout the series (no game was won by a margin of more than two runs) and battling back from 0-2 to even the series last night, Oakland was trounced by the PECOTA-favorited Detroit Tigers 6-0—a lead so large even Jose Valverde couldn’t have blown it.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Top of the 1st:
The buildup to this game reaches a crescendo with an on-camera Verducci spot, which takes me to another world, a world where anything is possible. His strong features and classical build create a confidence where even blatant lies and mis-directions would be welcomed with an earnest ear and open heart. He has me hooked with his first vocal salvo.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Game Four between the Cardinals and Nationals gave the people what they wanted: a lengthy, dramatic, Hollywood-inspired at-bat that ended a postseason game with an exclamation point. Earlier in the day, Jay Bruce delivered the first half late in the Giants-Reds series, but failed to punctuate. Walk-off home runs are exciting regardless of the at-bat length; however, there’s just something magical about seeing a pitcher and hitter going at it for 10, 11, 12 pitches before reaching a conclusion. Jayson Werth and Lance Lynn did one better: they dueled for 13 pitches.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Oakland went cuckoo for Coco Crisp on Wednesday night after the center fielder’s walk-off single capped a thrilling three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth. Oakland’s reward? A date with the Tigers’ ace. Who will go home, and who will advance? Here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for Game Five:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Game Three was about Joe Girardi’s decision to pinch-hit Raul Ibanez, and Ibanez’s story was this: three pitches seen, two home runs hit, one victory delivered. The Yankees are a win away from bouncing the Orioles and advancing to the ALCS. Will they wrap up the series tonight? Here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for Game Four:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

The questions addressed to Joe Girardi in his pre-game press conference looked a lot like the ones he fielded several hours later, after the Yankees had come from behind to beat Baltimore 3-2 in 12 innings and take a 2-1 series lead. Both times, the emphasis was on Alex Rodriguez, with a bit of Raul Ibanez. Girardi’s responses about A-Rod earlier in the day weren’t very revealing. But by the time the second presser started, the questions almost didn’t have to be asked. Girardi’s in-game actions had already supplied the answers.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.