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Pebble Hunting 

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09-23

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18

Pebble Hunting: That's The Way I Like It And I'll Never Get Bored
by
Sam Miller

09-22

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8

Pebble Hunting: The Great Big 'Beat PECOTA' Wrap
by
Sam Miller

08-26

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7

Pebble Hunting: A Sense Of Where You Are
by
Sam Miller

08-11

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15

Pebble Hunting: The Saddest Age-27 Seasons of 2016
by
Sam Miller

08-10

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7

Pebble Hunting: Somebody Is About To Strike Out 25 Batters In Nine Innings
by
Sam Miller

08-09

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3

Pebble Hunting: We're Boring About Ace Relief Performances
by
Sam Miller

08-01

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1

Pebble Hunting: A Prayer For Daniel Hudson
by
Sam Miller

07-08

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0

Pebble Hunting: Kershaw vs. Harper: The Mistakes
by
Sam Miller

07-06

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4

Pebble Hunting: The Baseball In Steamy Novels
by
Sam Miller

06-16

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0

Pebble Hunting: Change The Minimum-Innings Threshold, Dangit
by
Sam Miller

06-12

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6

Pebble Hunting: The State of the Closer
by
Sam Miller

06-07

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2

Pebble Hunting: Clayton Kershaw's 'Mistakes', Chapter Two
by
Sam Miller

05-16

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22

Pebble Hunting: The 14 Heroes Of Sunday's Odor/Bautista Brawl
by
Sam Miller

05-11

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7

Pebble Hunting: The Disappearing Footnote
by
Sam Miller

05-03

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3

Pebble Hunting: Clayton Kershaw's 28 'Mistakes' Last Month
by
Sam Miller

04-22

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8

Pebble Hunting: Which Bunts Are Missing?
by
Sam Miller

04-15

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17

Pebble Hunting: So I Guess This Is Vince Velasquez Now
by
Sam Miller

04-12

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7

Pebble Hunting: How You Tried To Beat PECOTA
by
Sam Miller

03-22

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10

Pebble Hunting: Sim City 1000000
by
Sam Miller

03-14

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33

Pebble Hunting: Should Have Taken Trout
by
Sam Miller

03-11

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7

Pebble Hunting: What It Means To Have The Best Farm System In Baseball, Part 4
by
Sam Miller

02-16

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39

Pebble Hunting: PECOTA Hates the Royals, Part II
by
Sam Miller

02-12

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9

Pebble Hunting: I Read the Entire Collective Bargaining Agreement and Here's What I Learned
by
Sam Miller

01-20

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7

Pebble Hunting: Flame of Thrown
by
Sam Miller

01-12

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4

Pebble Hunting: The Scioscia About Face
by
Sam Miller

11-30

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5

Pebble Hunting: Everything Is Now Super, 2015
by
Sam Miller

10-30

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5

Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the People of Citi Field
by
Sam Miller

04-27

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12

Pebble Hunting: Scott Boras Has Baseball's Most Accurate Projection System
by
Sam Miller

04-09

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28

Pebble Hunting: Every Team Gets One Do-Over
by
Sam Miller

04-03

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9

Pebble Hunting: Watching The Worst Game of 2014
by
Sam Miller

03-31

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52

Pebble Hunting: The Case For Shaming the Cubs
by
Sam Miller

03-17

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8

Pebble Hunting: Would Pedro Martinez Have Gone Undefeated?
by
Sam Miller

02-25

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10

Pebble Hunting: What the Heck, Tigers?
by
Sam Miller

02-13

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5

Pebble Hunting: Testing PECOTA's Memory
by
Sam Miller

01-26

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15

Pebble Hunting: What It Means To Have The Best Farm System In Baseball, Part Three
by
Sam Miller

01-23

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15

Pebble Hunting: The Pitchers Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-19

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Hitters Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-16

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21

Pebble Hunting: The Gospel According to Baseball
by
Sam Miller

11-21

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11

Pebble Hunting: Hank Aaron's Hypothetical Fortune
by
Sam Miller

11-05

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6

Pebble Hunting: Nelson Cruz is Same, Different
by
Sam Miller

10-24

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21

Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the People of AT&T Park
by
Sam Miller

10-21

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5

Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the People of Kauffman Stadium
by
Sam Miller

10-20

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46

Pebble Hunting: The Best Teams Should Make The World Series; A Defense of Bud Selig
by
Sam Miller

10-15

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Rich Get Smarter
by
Sam Miller

10-01

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2

Pebble Hunting: The '80' Pitches In This Year's Postseason
by
Sam Miller

09-29

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8

Pebble Hunting: The Padres' Sad Team Leaders
by
Sam Miller

09-24

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8

Pebble Hunting: Spoiler: Spoiling Spoiled
by
Sam Miller

09-19

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1

Pebble Hunting: Cueto's Quirks
by
Sam Miller

09-12

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7

Pebble Hunting: The Best Defensive Game of August
by
Sam Miller

09-11

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0

Pebble Hunting: Pitchers Live For the Applause-plause
by
Sam Miller

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As you get older it is harder to have heroes, but it is sort of necessary.

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The ultimate unintended consequence of the ever-expanding bullpen.

In the sixth inning of a recent Cubs game, Addison Russell (a right-hander) singled off Gio Gonzalez (a left-hander) to bring the Cubs to within one run of the Nationals. Blake Treinen (a right-hander) relieved Gonzalez (the left-hander) to face Tim Federowicz (a right-hander), who was immediately replaced by Tommy La Stella (a left-hander), who walked to load the bases for Ryan Kalish (a left-hander), pinch-hitting for Clayton Richard (a pitcher), at which point Dusty Baker (a right-hander) walked to the mound (a no-hander) and signaled for Sammy Solis (a left-hander (who bats right)), which is when the ride stopped. Solis faced Kalish. It took some doing, but Baker finally got his platoon advantage.

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May 3, 2016 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Clayton Kershaw's 28 'Mistakes' Last Month

3

Sam Miller

On the pitches the best pitcher in baseball has thrown, by one way of measuring it, the worst--and why they didn't hurt him.

An English teacher once gave us a writing assignment: Describe the taste of the best chocolate you ever had, to somebody who has never had chocolate. Without the self-referential crutch (“It tastes like chocolate, but, like, really chocolaty”), how do you convey what makes chocolate good?

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A sketch of the missing bunts for us to put on our Missing Bunts fliers.

Here’s a very brief history of the sacrifice bunt: From around 1960 through around 1981, teams bunted around .45 times per game. There was such a powerful instinct guiding managers to this number that even the introduction of the DH didn’t budge it. In 1982, sacrifices dropped under .4/game for the first time, but hung in around .38 or so until the end of the century. Since then, bunts have been steadily dropping, at the rate of just under one-hundredth of a bunt per game per year. Put another way, a decline of around 3 percent per game per year. Last year, there were .25 bunts per game.

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The best pitching performance of the season so far, as told in the best dozen or so pitches thrown.

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The players we were collectively most confident about.

Everything is gone. Just gone. There were no survivors. Here. There. Nobody knew who started it.

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How many simulations does it take for the Rockies to win 106 games, or the Dodgers to lose 121?

If PECOTA were a sentient Baseball Prospectus reader, I bet it would mostly ignore our projected team win totals. Putting a single number on a team’s upcoming season is antithetical to what PECOTA tries to do. It doesn’t actually see the Royals as a 75-win team, or the Cubs as a 94-win team; it sees them both as collections of players who are individually more likely to do some things than others, and who are collectively more likely to do some things than others. If forced—and, really, if you think about how many steps it takes us to get from Omar Infante’s individual projections to a one-number team projection for the Royals, “forced” might be exactly the word you’d use—PECOTA will give you a most likely number for the team. But that specific number is not that likely, and it's not what PECOTA wants you to take away from this.

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Measuring the scale of a single draft pick.

"We're going to take this kid with our first pick," Bane reportedly told his staff. "The problem is that he's not going to be there. He's too good." –San Francisco Chronicle

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How the Rays turned a great farm system into an even greater collection of players.

In 2007, the Rays had the best farm system in baseball, according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. I have an annual tradition of going over these farm systems one decade later in the hopes of putting into perspective what it means to have such a strong collection of young talent. I will commence this year’s version now.

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As we prepare to release the 2016 PECOTA projections, a look at one projection that many will not like.

Sometime today, or thereabouts, we expect to release all 2016 PECOTA projections. As part of that, there is a Royals team projection. And as part of that, there will be rolling of eyes, because, surprise, it is not a very optimistic projection. So in anticipation of the full PECOTA release...

Well, cuss.

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Finding the soul of the modern game in legalese.

It’s easy to underestimate how important baseball’s collective bargaining agreement is. I know how easy, because I’ve been doing it for years without even trying. The CBA has been mostly defined in my mind as “not a strike, yay.”

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After the fire, after all the rain, has the fast-fastball flame kept up with the era?

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