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07-11

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56

Overthinking It: Forever Changes
by
Ben Lindbergh

07-02

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2

Overthinking It: June in Catcher Framing
by
Ben Lindbergh

07-01

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10

Overthinking It: The Nationals' Non-Problem
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-27

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37

Overthinking It: The BP Staff Tries to Trade, and Trade for, David Price
by
Ben Lindbergh and Baseball Prospectus

06-25

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5

Overthinking It: Does Bill James' Game Score Still Work?
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-23

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18

Overthinking It: Josh Byrnes Breaks Streak; Padres Face Uncertain Future
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-19

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12

Overthinking It: The Players PECOTA Has Missed
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-17

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4

Overthinking It: Why That Stanton Homer Broke Your Brain
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-13

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1

Overthinking It: The Season of Super-Parity
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-11

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10

Overthinking It: The OTHER Way We Could Move the Mound
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-04

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2

Overthinking It: May in Catcher Framing
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-30

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3

Overthinking It: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 5/30
by
Ben Lindbergh and Chris Mosch

05-28

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7

Overthinking It: Defining Positions in the Age of the Shift
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-23

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15

Overthinking It: The 12-Second Rule and the Boring-ization of Baseball
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-23

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9

Overthinking It: How to Prevent Future Prince Fielders
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-19

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6

Overthinking It: The Way in Which the A's Are Still Old-School
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-15

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3

Overthinking It: Have Tommy John Surgery, Sign Long-Term Contract?
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-08

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10

Overthinking It: The Masters of the Manufactured Run
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-07

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12

Overthinking It: Catcher Framing: The Season So Far
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-02

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14

Overthinking It: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 5/2
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-29

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4

Overthinking It: Three National Leaguers in the News
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-25

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8

Overthinking It: Matt Moore, Ivan Nova, and the Injury Zone
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-24

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3

Overthinking It: The Obligatory Article About Aaron Harang
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-23

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7

Overthinking It: Pujols Rewrites the Script
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-17

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16

Overthinking It: Lessons We Learned Yesterday
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-16

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25

Overthinking It: Does Baseball Have a Pace Problem?
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-10

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6

Overthinking It: Knuckleballers of the PITCHf/x Era: A Complete Taxonomy
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-09

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11

Overthinking It: The Minor League Leaders Who Haven't Made It
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-04

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14

Overthinking It: Is Dexter Fowler Tough Enough to Play for Your Team?
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-01

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13

Overthinking It: Takeaways from Opening Day
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-20

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2

Overthinking It: Farewell to Free Agency?
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-18

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16

Overthinking It: The Big Questions from the 2014 SABR Analytics Conference
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-06

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3

Overthinking It: The 10 Phases of Phil Hughes, Compulsive Pitch Tinkerer
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-03

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19

Overthinking It: Takeaways From Our First Look at the Future
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-27

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19

Overthinking It: Why Every Team Needs Kendrys Morales
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-20

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2

Overthinking It: Last Season in Selective Aggression
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-18

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28

Overthinking It: Quantifying Cano's Lack of Hustle
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-12

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15

Overthinking It: Where the Remaining Free Agents Would Matter the Most
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-04

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18

Overthinking It: Parsing the PECOTAs
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-03

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5

Overthinking It: Searching for Switch-Hitters Who Shouldn't Switch-Hit
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-29

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23

Overthinking It: Polling the Industry: Masahiro Tanaka in 2014
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-24

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28

Overthinking It: Internet Commenters Try to Trade for David Price
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-23

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20

Overthinking It: Several Stray Thoughts About the Masahiro Tanaka Signing
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-16

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3

Overthinking It: How the Braves Can Keep a Good Thing Going
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-14

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5

Overthinking It: Will the 2014 Yankees Have the Oldest Offense Ever?
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-10

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6

Overthinking It: The Trouble with Forecasting Chemistry
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-08

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9

Overthinking It: What Scouts Said About 2014's Top Cooperstown Candidates
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-06

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2

Overthinking It: Testing the Predictive Powers of 2013 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-20

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3

Overthinking It: Baseball's New Kind of Coach
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-12

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15

Overthinking It: Picking an Appropriate Cardinals Shortstop
by
Ben Lindbergh

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November 20, 2013 8:14 am

Overthinking It: Baseball's New Kind of Coach

3

Ben Lindbergh

On the rise of the defensive coordinator.

A few months ago, in a guest piece for BP, Gabe Kapler made the case for hiring Matt Martin, a coach whose passion and instructional skills had impressed him in the minors. On Monday, the Detroit Tigers took his advice, adding Martin to new manager Brad Ausmus’ staff.

The 44-year-old’s resume looks like that of many major-league coaches: some experience as a professional player, followed by close to two decades of minor-league coaching experience. His title is a lot less typical: “Defensive Coordinator,” a position familiar to football fans (though the NFL's "Quality Control Coach" is a closer equivalent) but almost unknown in baseball.*

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November 12, 2013 6:00 am

Overthinking It: Picking an Appropriate Cardinals Shortstop

15

Ben Lindbergh

Assessing John Mozeliak's options as St. Louis attempts to upgrade at short.

It’s not so bad being Pete Kozma. Between his signing bonus, his major- and minor-league salaries, and his World Series ring, Kozma has already made more than the average American high school graduate earns in a lifetime (and the average American high school graduate is pretty well off, globally speaking). He has his health, his looks and athleticism, and a pretty cool career. We’ve all tweeted or written or said something snarky about Pete Kozma at some point in the last couple years, but the sobering reality is that if everyone in the world were forced to trade lives with either Kozma, you, or me, Kozma would win in a landslide.

Kozma is snarkworthy only in relation to a select group of people: other big league shortstops, just about all of whom are better at baseball than he. The 25-year-old can’t hit, so his overall value depends on his defense. Going by WARP, he wasn’t that bad, because only Andrelton Simmons and Jean Segura had better FRAA figures at shortstop. The location-based defensive metrics weren’t quite as high on him; of the 24 players who appeared in a minimum of 100 games last season, with at least 80 percent of them coming at shortstop, Kozma ranked 22nd by Baseball-Reference WAR, ahead of only Starlin Castro and Adeiny Hechavarria.

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No prior major-league managerial jobs, no coaching experience, no problem.

Early in the World Series, my girlfriend wondered aloud why FOX was showing so many reaction shots of the same St. Louis player. “Which player?”, I asked. “That one,” she answered, the next time the broadcast cut to the dugout camera. She meant Mike Matheny.

It was an understandable mistake. Matheny can pass for a player because he’s not that far removed from being one. His playing days were done after 2006, his age-35 season, and he’d been retired officially for only five seasons when he was hired to take over for Tony La Russa. Given 25 years and approximately 20,000 packs of cigarettes, a fresh-faced manager like Matheny could come to look like Jim Leyland. (Okay, maybe not Leyland, who looked like this at Matheny’s age.) But that’s a long way away, and Matheny doesn’t smoke.

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Want to stick as a 21st-century skipper? Don't be like Baker.

Dusty Baker was fired on Friday, and few Twitter tears were shed. When a manager who’s perceived to be anti-analysis gets the axe, sabermetricians celebrate. It's about time, we think. All those bunts by position players, all those illogical lineups, all those refusals to bring in the closer with a tie game on the road. We said they didn’t make sense, and someone finally listened. Maybe Bob Castellini reads blogs! Ding-dong, the Dusty era is dead. We did it!

Well…no, probably not. Most managerial hirings and firings aren’t referendums on the industry’s acceptance of sabermetrics, or the result of what anyone on the internet says. Sure, Baker was known as one of the game’s most first- and second-guessable tactical managers, and sure, he’s now out of a job. Correlation, causation, etc. Maybe Baker was let go because the Reds felt his in-game decisions and reluctance to look at certain stats were costing them wins, but it’s not the only (or even the most likely) explanation.

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September 27, 2013 9:33 am

Overthinking It: Mariano Rivera's Final Four Outs

12

Ben Lindbergh

Except for the waterworks, the last Bronx appearance of the best reliever ever was much like hundreds of excellent outings before it.

Assuming he doesn’t pitch in Houston this weekend—and after the fanfare and misty-eyed moments of his Yankee Stadium send-off, an appearance against the Astros, unless it’s in center, would feel like a letdown—Mariano Rivera threw his final 13 pitches last night. Let’s watch and savor each one of them, because we’re not going to get any more.

Vs. Delmon Young

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September 24, 2013 8:46 am

Overthinking It: The Season in Small-Sample Narratives

7

Ben Lindbergh

A retrospective on the flashes in pans that briefly became big stories in 2013.

There’s only one thing as embarrassing as old yearbook photos: narratives from the start of the baseball season, as viewed from September. So much has happened since those first few months that it’s not always easy to remember what we were worried and excited about, even when we’re not actively trying to forget. Some early slumps and hot streaks are signs of things to come, but in retrospect, others seem impossibly quaint, like relics from a more ignorant age. With the regular season in its waning days, let’s look back at some of the flashes in pans that briefly became big stories.

Jarrod Parker needs a trip to Triple-A
Parker was awful in April. More accurately, he was awful in four of his six April starts, but those four were ugly enough to completely kayo his line. At the end of the month, he had a 7.36 ERA, which Bob Melvin called “puzzling” and columnists (after all of three outings) called grounds to propose putting him in the bullpen or sending him to Sacramento. Some of the right-hander’s struggles may have been bad luck—he had a .382 BABIP—but most likely he was suffering from some mechanical issues: Parker walked 16 in 29 1/3 April innings.


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The best and worst receivers of the week(s) and year, with end-of-season minor-league stats.

2013 League Leaders
Welcome back. We’re going to start things off a little differently this time. These are the top five framers of 2013, according to Max Marchi’s model, through the end of August (it takes time to run, so it’s updated monthly). Negative numbers are runs saved, and numbers inside parentheses are called pitches.

Jose Molina, -24.6 (5259)
Yadier Molina, -23.8 (7443)
Alex Avila, -22.6 (5637)
Derek Norris, -20.1 (4947)
Brian McCann, -18.5 (5473)






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Billy Hamilton's first start showed us how good he can be, but is it reasonable to expect continued success this season?

The Astros and Reds played 13 innings of ugly, beautiful baseball last night. Daniel Rathman chronicled the lapses in judgment, failures to execute, and tactical mistakes that prolonged the contest between the two teams in today’s What You Need to Know, so you can go read about those there. Ultimately, though, the crimes against baseball that were Brandon Phillips bunting, Dusty Baker saving Aroldis Chapman for a save situation, and Jose Altuve’s TOOTBLAN will be forgiven, forgotten, or lumped in with other managerial mistakes and baserunning blunders. Billy Hamilton will be what we remember.

Hamilton, making his first career start and batting ninth, went 3-for-4 with two walks and four stolen bases. The steals were the most eye-catching part of his performance. As I wrote in today’s Lineup Card, Hamilton’s instincts on the bases aren’t unparalleled, but his speed and the inevitability of his attempts set him apart from other thieves. Each of his appearances on base is an event, because everyone watching knows he’s going to go; as Buster Olney wrote recently, Hamilton’s pinch-running appearances should be preceded by an entrance song, since they’re at least as exciting and game-altering as a closer coming in. Hamilton has failed to attempt a steal in only one of his 10 times on base, and then only because Shin-Soo Choo singled him home almost immediately.

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September 16, 2013 10:12 am

Overthinking It: The Latest Attempts to Beat the Shift

5

Ben Lindbergh

Adam Dunn, David Ortiz, and others are doing their best to make defenders abandon the ever-more-popular over-shift.

A few minutes into the bottom of the first inning of Sunday night’s game between the Red Sox and Yankees, a Dustin Pedroia groundout and a Daniel Nava double brought up David Ortiz.

“He’s made a concerted effort to hit the ball the other way a lot more this season, that’s why the average is so high,” said ESPN’s Dan Shulman. Before he could finish the sentence, Ortiz grounded a single to left. “And there he goes,” Shulman said.

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September 10, 2013 9:03 am

Overthinking It: Is Ubaldo Back?

7

Ben Lindbergh

Are the struggles of erstwhile ace Ubaldo Jimenez over?

Just over a month ago on Effectively Wild, Sam Miller and I surveyed the 2014 options that teams would have to decide to pick up or pass on at the end of this season. When we came to the Indians’ $8 mutual million option on Ubaldo Jimenez, we very nearly dismissed it without saying what it was.

Me: Ubaldo Jimenez.
Sam: Pass.
Me: You don’t even want to hear the amount?
Sam: Well, what is the amount?
Me: The amount is $8 million.
Sam: Given who’s a free agent starter this winter, it wouldn’t kill me if a team did that at all. I would pass, but it wouldn’t break my heart.






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September 8, 2013 12:00 am

Overthinking It: The 2013 All-Fringe-Prospect Team

15

Ben Lindbergh

Not all who break out are breakouts.

The authors of Baseball Prospectus 2014, the 19th edition of our annual book, are a couple weeks away from submitting player lists to the editing team. Generally, it’s pretty easy to compile a complete count of players who deserve to be profiled. Anyone who played for the big club and is still in the organization merits a mention, as do recent top draft picks and other minor leaguers who appear on top prospect lists. But there’s always a player who resists easy assignment—someone whose stats stand out but whose name is unknown.

At BP, we believe in blending stats and scouting information to get the most accurate picture of a player, so when those of us who mainly watch major-league action come across one of these enigmas, we seek out our colleagues on the scouting side. “Is this a prospect?” we ask, and often the answer is, “No.” “But he slugged .600!” our inner triple-slash-line lover says, before being drowned out by the evidence against him: he’s old for his level, or he plays in High Desert, or he has the sort of swing that won’t work well against advanced pitching. Put it all together, and the player’s projection is too fringy for the book.

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Think your team has trouble against rookie starters whom they should have no trouble hitting? That's what they all say.

Earlier this year, I wrote an article about internet commenters' attempts to concoct trades for Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins right fielder had reportedly been put on the block, and while the price in prospects was believed to be steep, not even fans of the organizations with the worst farm systems were willing to concede that their team couldn’t get a deal done. Every fan base, it turned out, had at least one blogging, tweeting, or commenting member who didn’t see any problem putting a persuasive package together. “Ultimately,” I concluded, “we’re all convinced that we’re above-average drivers, and that we’re better looking than we actually are, and that our teams would have no trouble trading for Stanton.” In reality, of course, we can’t all be above average at anything, and most of the proposed trades were preposterous. Stanton is still in Miami.

Rooting for baseball teams isn’t a totally rational activity, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that some of the people who do it are laboring under a different delusion. This one, almost as widespread as Stantonitis, pertains to what Cliff Corcoran once dubbed “getting URPed”—shut down or beaten by an Unfamiliar Rookie Pitcher. Over the past nine-plus seasons, rookie starters, in close to 40,000 innings, have posted a 4.76 ERA. Non-rookie starters, in over 240,000 innings, have recorded a collective 4.30. Veterans have outperformed rookies in every season from 2004 through 2013, so clearly someone has to be hitting rookie pitchers. But you can find a fan of (almost) every team who’ll tell you that it must be someone else.

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