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Overthinking It 

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05-23

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3

Overthinking It: The Incredible New Neal Cotts
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-22

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10

Overthinking It: Better in Baltimore
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-21

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8

Overthinking It: The Pitches No Zone Can Contain
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-18

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11

Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 5/18
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-16

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9

Overthinking It: The Mystique and Aura of the Other 29 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-10

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13

Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 5/10
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-10

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14

Overthinking It: Where the Value of Robot Umpires Ends
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-10

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11

Overthinking It: The Sub-Replacements
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-07

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14

Overthinking It: Evaluating Early-Season Experiments
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-03

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10

Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 5/3
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-02

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4

Overthinking It: Three Months in Marco Scutaro's BABIP
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-26

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57

Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 4/26
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-25

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8

Overthinking It: Why Jose Valverde is Still Getting Saves for Detroit
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-24

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7

Overthinking It: Yadier Molina's Maybe-Amazing Powers of Defensive Positioning
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-19

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15

Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 4/19
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-18

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2

Overthinking It: Brett Gardner Gets Aggressive
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-13

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1

Overthinking It: The Year's New Pitches
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-12

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14

Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 4/12
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-12

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5

Overthinking It: When the 2013 Yankees Were Young(er)
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-09

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30

Overthinking It: What We Know About the Blown Call
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-05

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27

Overthinking It: This Week In Catcher Framing, 4/5
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-04

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2

Overthinking It: So You Want to Buy a 2014-15 Free Agent?
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-28

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17

Overthinking It: What it Would Mean for the Marlins if Placido Polanco Bats Fourth
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-26

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2

Overthinking It: Five Make-or-Break Contract Years
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-22

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48

Overthinking It: Ranking Rivera
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-20

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4

Overthinking It: The Undefeated Dominicans
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-14

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46

Overthinking It: 15 Questions I've Been Asking Myself Since the SABR Conference
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-12

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15

Overthinking It: The Not-So-Secret Sabermetrics of Marketing
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-08

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2

Overthinking It: Ready For Their Close-Ups?
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-07

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22

Overthinking It: The All-Rookie Roster
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-26

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11

Overthinking It: PECOTA's Projected Fallers
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-25

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2

Overthinking It: PECOTA's Projected Risers
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-25

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14

Overthinking It: The Best of Baseball's New Old Videos
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-18

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24

Overthinking It: Why There Probably Are No Next Orioles
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-12

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8

Overthinking It: Spring Position Battles, National League
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-11

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3

Overthinking It: Spring Position Battles, American League
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-07

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11

Overthinking It: Micah Owings Embraces His Destiny
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-01

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3

Overthinking It: If I Had My Brothers
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-25

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18

Overthinking It: Understanding the Umpire-Manager Arguments of 2012
by
Ben Lindbergh and Evan Brunell

01-18

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3

Overthinking It: The Scurrilous Lie About the WBC
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-18

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14

Overthinking It: The Craziest Half-Inning in History
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-15

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5

Overthinking It: Have the Twins Learned to Love the Strikeout?
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-12

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8

Overthinking It: Bargain Bin Free Agents
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-10

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9

Overthinking It: Has the Sabermetric Movement Been Bad for Jack Morris?
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-03

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44

Overthinking It: Internet Commenters Try to Trade for Giancarlo Stanton
by
Ben Lindbergh

12-27

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9

Overthinking It: Bourn to Be ... What?
by
Ben Lindbergh

12-27

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4

Overthinking It: Handicapping the Injury-Prone Pitchers of 2013
by
Ben Lindbergh

12-23

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23

Overthinking It: Remembering Ryan Freel
by
Ben Lindbergh

12-22

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7

Overthinking It: The Winter's Quietest Contenders
by
Ben Lindbergh

12-21

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7

Overthinking It: The Mike Minor Mystery
by
Ben Lindbergh

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Micah Owings has always been a good-hitting pitcher. That's a lot different than being a good-hitting non-pitcher.

There was a period, before we’d seen him be bad at pitching, when Micah Owings’ ability to hit was perceived as a complementary part of his play. Owings was a prospect for his pitching alone, a former third-round pick and a 6’5” right-hander with a 3.36 career ERA in the minors through age 23. Just the pitching, presumably, was enough to make him the 98th-best prospect in baseball entering the 2007 season, according to Baseball America (he didn’t make our list). Owings’ bat was a bonus.

That period lasted for a year or so after the point at which Owings appeared on most of our radars. In 2007, the year when he won a starting job in spring training, his comment in the annual alluded to his offense only at the end, after three sentences about stuff that made scouts drool:

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February 1, 2013 9:34 am

Overthinking It: If I Had My Brothers

3

Ben Lindbergh

Surprise: the Upton-inspired brothers-helping-brothers theory has some support in the numbers.

B.J. and Justin Upton are brothers. They’re also both Braves, thanks to the November signing that brought B.J. to Atlanta and the trade last week in which Justin joined him. As one would expect, the Uptons are excited about the opportunity to be big-league teammates, which they’ve been hoping to have for years. Here are some quotes from a couple of the many stories written about the Uptons in the wake of the trade:

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What the managers who were ejected last season said to seal their fates. (Warning: strong language.)

"First, never curse an umpire. Curse the call, say it was a bleeping bad call, but never call the umpire a name. Try not to get personal."—Earl WeaverWeaver on Strategy

"People always want to know whether there’s a magic word. Is it ‘cocksucker’? Is it ‘asshole’? No. The magic word is 'you.'"—Umpire Gary Cederstrom
—As They See ’Em: A Fan’s Travels in the Land of Umpires, by Bruce Weber


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January 18, 2013 4:24 pm

Overthinking It: The Scurrilous Lie About the WBC

3

Ben Lindbergh

Despite what you might have read, the past two WBC tournaments didn't damage pitchers.

Baseball players are often described—or describe themselves—as creatures of habit. And at no time is their adherence to routine more evident than during their methodical preparation for the season, when they shake off a winter’s worth of rust and ramp up for the coming campaign. Pitchers, especially, are dependent on spring training to build up arm strength, incorporate new offerings into their arsenals, and learn to work with their batterymates. But every three (or, starting in 2009, four) springs, including this coming one, an event takes place that threatens to disrupt that routine: the World Baseball Classic. The timing of the tournament has caused concerns that pitchers who choose to participate in it could be adversely affected, which likely explains why the United States squad that was announced on Thursday, while stocked with star position players, is relatively short on impact pitching talent.

There’s some basis for this fear. In May of 2006, not long after the first World Baseball Classic concluded, Nate Silver observed that the pitchers who’d taken part in the tournament had performed far worse to that point in the regular season than PECOTA had predicted, prior to Opening Day, that they would. The pitchers had posted a collective 5.08 ERA in over 1,000 innings compared to a projected mark of 4.10. Some of the difference was attributable to a higher-octane league-wide offensive environment than PECOTA had anticipated, but even after accounting for that discrepancy, the WBC pitchers’ performance still stood out as particularly poor. Starting pitchers with WBC experience began the regular season with especially disappointing results.

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And how that half-inning happened.

In all the many media entities based on the Sherlock Holmes character created by Arthur Conan Doyle, there had never before 2012 (to my knowledge) been one in which Holmes applied his deductive skills to baseball. Nor would one expect there to be, since 19th-century London—traditionally Holmes’ home—was not a hotbed of baseball analysis. But since his character was created, Holmes has become an accomplished traveler in both space and time, making it possible to conduct two TV shows and a movie franchise based on his character concurrently. And, thanks to the newest of those shows, also making it possible to expose the world’s most famous fictional detective to baseball.

The CBS procedural Elementary, now approaching the end of its first season, reimagines Holmes as a tattooed modern-day detective, freshly released from rehab and relocated from London, who offers his consulting services to the NYPD. And it takes Elementary all of one episode to bring up baseball, as if to remind the viewer that this is Sherlock Holmes in New York, like you’ve never seen him before. The scene, which I’ve embedded below, comes at the end of the pilot and shows Sherlock (Jonny Lee Miller) and Watson (Lucy Liu) winding down after a long day of deducing by watching the Mets.

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January 15, 2013 10:43 am

Overthinking It: Have the Twins Learned to Love the Strikeout?

5

Ben Lindbergh

Pour one out for Brad Radke and his spiritual descendants.

We don't typically think of particular player types as being associated with certain teams. There are some exceptions that seem to persist over time: the Rockies go after groundballers, for instance, and the Yankees tend to target lefty-swinging sluggers. But those teams' player preferences are tied to their ballparks. If the Rockies played at a lower altitude or the Yankees found they could fit in another luxury box by making their outfield fences more symmetrical, they would adapt to their new surroundings and stop pursuing the same sort of player.

Other apparent preferences are illusions or short-term trends based on temporary team composition or the whims of one front-office regime. The A’s, for a while, liked fat guys, but then they discovered defense. The Royals, under Dayton Moore, have a thing for former Braves. The Tigers, under Dave Dombrowski and scouting director David Chadd, have a reputation for liking big pitchers who throw hard. But that’s almost an obvious affinity, sort of like saying a team favors hitters who hit the ball far. The Tigers might like pitchers who throw hard a little more than most teams, and they might be a bit more willing to overlook the shortcomings of pitchers who fit that profile. But what team doesn’t like big pitchers who throw hard?

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January 12, 2013 9:05 am

Overthinking It: Bargain Bin Free Agents

8

Ben Lindbergh

Most of the impact free agents are off the market, but there are still some potential values available to teams that are willing to dig deep.

At this point in the offseason, few impact free agents remain on the market, save for Scott Boras clients who’ve been hurt by the new CBA’s draft pick compensation system. Assuming Mike Napoli and Francisco Liriano eventually ink with the Red Sox and Pirates, respectively, only seven of the top 50 free agents have yet to find a home.

However, there are still some decent values waiting to be dug up by teams that are willing to look in the bargain bin. Last year, injury reclamation projects like Bartolo Colon, Oliver Perez, and Pat Neshek, bench bats like Jonny Gomes, Jeff Keppinger, Wilson Betemit, and Gregor Blanco, and unremarkable relievers like Fernando Rodney all went on to have strong seasons after signing in January, most of them with contending teams. (Rodney, who entered the year with a 4.42 ERA in his previous five seasons, became one of 2012’s best stories, posting a 0.60 ERA and finishing fifth in AL Cy Young voting.)

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Or is all the campaigning to keep Jack Morris out of the Hall actually making it more likely that he'll get in?

Appearing on MLB Network in the wake of yesterday’s non-elections, Jon Heyman looked like a broken man. Visibly deflated (unless that’s just how everyone who sits close to Tom Verducci looks by comparison), Heyman called Morris’ stagnant results—just three votes and one percentage point higher than last year’s, leaving him well short of the magic 75 percent mark with one year of eligibility remaining—“unfair” and “a real shame," even going so far as to suggest that Morris was “mistreated.” After the segment, Heyman took to Twitter to get a head start on the decisive 2014 voting, which will, one way or another, drive a stake into the heart of these delightful end-of-year debates:

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What the partisan parts of the internet think Miami's young All-Star outfielder is worth.

Being a baseball rumormonger is a difficult job to do well. First, you spend years building a network of sources who can and will tell you interesting things about baseball teams. Even after you’ve collected your contacts, be prepared to put in long hours and work weekends to stay ahead of the story or be the first to break it. Don’t expect to sleep or be seen without a cell phone.

However, the job has its perks: attract a large enough following, and you can create your own stories. Slow news day? Pick a highly coveted player whom it might make some sort of sense for a team to trade. Ask an executive who works for that team if there’s any chance that said player might be moved. If the executive says the player won’t be traded under any circumstances, you have a story, or what passes for a story in the MLBTR/Twitter era. If the executive allows even the slightest sliver of a possibility that the player might be available, you have a story that lives a long time and begets a long line of other stories, like something straight out of the Old Testament. What is he worth, and what might it take to trade for him? Which teams might match up? Will the team still be willing to trade him tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow? What about the day after that?

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December 27, 2012 12:25 pm

Overthinking It: Bourn to Be ... What?

9

Ben Lindbergh

The market for Michael Bourn has been tepid, and there are few teams that provide a natural fit.

Michael Bourn turns 30 today, but barring a buzzer-beating offer, he won’t get the gift of a new contract until after his birthday. Bourn, the highest-ranked free agent remaining on the market, hasn’t attracted the widespread interest that he and agent Scott Boras had hoped for. Some teams may be concerned that the center fielder’s speed-based skill set could suffer once he loses a step; others might be reluctant or unwilling to forfeit the draft pick Bourn would cost them because of the qualifying offer he received from the Braves. Regardless of their reasons for looking elsewhere, several potential buyers for Bourn have already removed themselves from the running by making other moves: the Nationals, Phillies, Reds, and A’s have landed center fielders via trade, while the Giants and Braves have invested in other free agents, re-signing Angel Pagan and bringing in B.J. Upton, respectively.

It’s still too soon for Bourn to panic or consider seeking new representation. While it’s possible that he’ll have to settle for the so-called “pillow contract” that some Boras clients have had to swallow when their expected megadeals never materialized, Boras has often wangled the biggest possible payday by waiting until late in the offseason, when some teams are desperate for an upgrade and there are few attractive alternatives to his high-profile clients.

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December 27, 2012 5:00 am

Overthinking It: Handicapping the Injury-Prone Pitchers of 2013

4

Ben Lindbergh

Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, and Jeremy Bonderman will be back in big-league camps next spring. Which one is the safest best to have something left?

There comes a point in every fantasy draft when one owner drafts a particular player at a certain position—shortstop, let’s say—which reminds every other owner that they also need a shortstop and that there are only so many good ones left to go around. The ensuing collective hysteria causes a run on anyone eligible at that position, and by the time the league comes to its senses, Clint Barmes is the only shortstop still standing.

That’s essentially what happened on the Friday before Christmas, except with injury-prone starting pitchers. On Friday morning, the Twins signed Rich Harden. On Friday afternoon, determined not to be locked out of the injury-prone-pitcher market, the Indians signed Scott Kazmir and the Mariners followed suit by signing Jeremy Bonderman. (Brandon Webb is still somewhere on the board.) Realistically, except for their fingerprints, not much ties the current Kazmir, Harden, and Bonderman to the versions who had success several seasons ago. But the names are still notable, and the faces are still familiar, so we can't help but wonder whether the stuff might still be similar too.

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Former Reds supersub Ryan Freel committed suicide on Saturday. Why does his death hurt more than most?

Back when I played fantasy baseball, I used to get attached to particular players, whom I’d try (within reason) to acquire year after year. This was probably the worst possible way to play fantasy baseball. A good fantasy player (or major-league general manager, for that matter) thinks only about value and doesn’t care where it comes from. It doesn’t make sense to be sentimental: players who are valuable (or at least undervalued) one year can be worthless or (overvalued) the next, and paying for past performance instead of projection is a reliable way to make mistakes. Getting too attached to particular players was an especially lousy strategy in a league like mine, which was filled with friends who knew whom I’d taken a shine to. There was a period of a year or two when it was well known that I would have traded my own grandmother (or worse, someone much better at baseball) to get Dave Bush. (Yes, Dave Bush. Also Conor Jackson. The time commitment wasn’t the only reason I gave up the game.)

Not only did I have a tendency to get attached to particular players, but I was also a sucker for players who could do more than one thing: relievers who could slide into a rotation slot on a day when someone else wasn’t starting, bench players who could fill in at several positions when others had offdays. And I was biased toward players who walked a lot. Not because walks helped my fantasy team—until I convinced the other owners to add on-base percentage as a category, it hardly helped at all—but because I’d recently read Moneyball. And lastly, I liked injured players. I could always convince myself that someone who’d been hurt before was a bargain and a bounceback waiting to happen instead of a chronic injury case. Basically, any success I had in fantasy I had because I was obsessive about setting my lineup and because I was looking at some stats other owners weren’t aware of. Otherwise, I was the worst.

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