CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Futures Guide 2014 is Now Available in Paperback and Three E-book Formats.

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

No Pepper 

Search No Pepper

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

02-05

comment icon

5

No Pepper: Other Outliers
by
Tommy Bennett

06-14

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

06-11

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

06-10

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

06-09

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

06-06

comment icon

2

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

05-01

comment icon

7

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-29

comment icon

1

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-27

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-21

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-19

comment icon

1

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-14

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-12

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-06

comment icon

3

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-05

comment icon

5

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-01

comment icon

2

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

04-01

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-29

comment icon

2

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-25

comment icon

3

No Pepper: Against the Fence (Double Edition)
by
Tommy Bennett

03-23

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-22

comment icon

3

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-16

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-15

comment icon

3

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-11

comment icon

1

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-10

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-09

comment icon

1

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-08

comment icon

3

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

03-03

comment icon

0

No Pepper: Against the Fence
by
Tommy Bennett

02-22

comment icon

1

No Pepper: Search Costs Versus Surplus
by
Tommy Bennett

<< Previous Column Entries Next Column Entries >>

Third base coaches acting questionably, B.J. Upton playing shallow, and how Prince Fielder prevents (?) home runs.

There are few things I love more than an old-fashioned debate about rules.
Of course, it's only cheating if you're caught, but it appears that White Sox third base coach Scott Ullger may have been attempting to fake out Mark Teahen on a play at the plate. But you don't have to take my word for it...

R.J. Anderson examines B.J. Upton's positioning, specifically the hits/XBH tradeoff.
In this world of specialized blogs (see, e.g., here), R.J. examining the managerial moves of Joe Maddon is particularly compelling.



Read the full article...

Infographics, stare-downs, and collusion.

What percentage of World Series winners were above average in OBP?
Boston.com provides the answer in the form of an interactive infographic. Did you know 87% of WS winners had an above average defensive efficiency? Is the result a cause or an effect?

You sort of have to see Sammy Gervacio's new stare-down to believe it.
A good first outing means we can expect more in the future. Here's a brief video of the insanity



Read the full article...

Vin Scully's jokes, the decline of empires, and baseball in China.

Dajafi from The Good Phight looks at how recent dynasties have ended.
Surprisingly enough (to me at least) was that none of them involved a frozen Rhine. I also found the selection of dynasties provocative: I don't usually consider the '95-'01 Indians a dynasty, but it makes a certain amount of sense.

I have said it before and I will say it again. If you don't like Vin Scully you don't like baseball.
This interview with the great broadcaster came on the cusp of his 61st (!) season with the Dodgers. A characteristic quote: "I'll always remember Walter O'Malley said to me: 'You know the amazing thing about baseball is that the cheapest seats are the most expensive and the most expensive are the cheapest.'"



Read the full article...

Centerfielders become pitchers, relievers become starters, and everyone hits the DL.

Aaron Gleeman notes that the Twins have hired a dedicated database expert.
Gleeman's takeaway is surprise that an assistant GM could be unaware what BABIP was. And yet, the Twins are a pretty good baseball team. 

Perhaps we should clamor for better sixth inning relievers.
I'll put aside my bias against 3D bar charts to note that bullpen leverage and chaining is probably one of the hardest theoretical problems I can think of.



Read the full article...

The future of competitive balance, contracting around military service, and Troy Tulowitzki's opinion of zone rating systems.

Extension talks between the Indians and Shin-Soo Choo have yet been unsuccessful.
Choo recently retained the services of Scott Boras. One very difficult provision of any long-term contract is how to deal with the contingency of Korea's mandatory military service. It is possible Choo will be exempted but any contract extension must deal explicitly with the risk that Choo would miss two years of baseball before the age of 30. How would you write such a provision?

Maury Brown channels Commissioner Derek Jeter III to report on baseball from 2350.
He envisions many of the same competitive balance problems existing even then. That seems reasonable as long as MLB existed as it does today. A different question would be what is the likelihood that baseball would exist in its given form in 2350? I'd put the number at less than 50%. What do you think?



Read the full article...

Ichiro Suzuki is the most interesting player in baseball.
I almost think other nominations for the spot are laughable, but try in the comments if you wish. In this clip, he pitches during a 1996 Japanese All-Star Game. His fastball tops out at about 90 miles per hour.

Because 2900 words on ERA+ just aren't enough, Patriot goes above and beyond.
Sean Forman recently (and accidentally) changed and changed back the way ERA+ is calculated on Baseball-Reference. It's an interesting question how best to do it, but Patriot canvasses the concerns exquisitely.



Read the full article...

Imagine a black line tracing every Mariano Rivera pitch over the foot long distance before home plate
Imagine you are looking from the bird's-eye view and up is toward the mound. That's what mastery looks like, my friends.

Do you remember Hee-Seop Choi? He was traded for Derrek Lee once.
R.J. the Wunderkind provides this retrospective of Choi's career. At least the guy is killing the ball in Korea.



Read the full article...

Phil Birnbaum has a good reminder of the difference between frequentist and Bayesian statistics.
The central Bayesian insight is that you need information about the world as it exists "prior" to the test. For example, if we want to know how a Triple-A player with certain statistics will perform in the major leagues, we need to know how Triple-A players (or some other appropriate subset) are likely to perform in the major leagues. However, Bayesian statistics are often and easily abused

J.C. Bradbury helpfully reminds baseball players to turn that frown upside-down.
Players who smile fully in their pictures tend to live longer. Under the assumptions of the model in the paper (Abel & Kruger), smily intensity explained 35% of the variation in survival rates. They use a hazard model to arrive that this odd result.



Read the full article...

I'm back from South by Southwest with links for all. At least now, in addition to waiting for opening day, I can await the release of the debut Sleigh Bells album.

Is Joe Mauer's contract extension "good for baseball"? Walkoff Walk is tracking that cliche.
Or is it a cliche? Drew Fairservice argues convincingly the agreement is a single datapoint and ought not to be read any more broadly than that.


Read the full article...

Shawn Hoffman and his buddy Matt have created the most useful Chrome extension yet.
Or, Shawn Hoffman have a hot dog with me. The tool allows you search nearly every baseball site in existence for a single player all at once. You can download it here.

Baseball-reference is adding new splits, including one for how pitchers perform based on run support. 
Sean Forman reminds us that this is a useful demonstration of Simpson's Paradox. It is also commonly applied to batting averages.



Read the full article...

Minor league players aren't paid very well, as this hilarious video starring outfielder Fernando Perez reminds us.
I live in Brooklyn, and I will now be looking out for Fernando Perez, realtor in Park Slope. Minor leaguers did, however, get a raise in their per diem recently.

Satchel Price at BtB attempts to put a dollar value on KG's farm system rankings.
Unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay is #1. But I bet you can't guess either #2 or #3 (hint: neither is Texas).



Read the full article...

You're the Twins. You've lost one of your most valuable players. What do you do?
The fact is, torn UCL doesn't automatically mean Tommy John surgery, though it is by far the most common result. There is always the possibility of rehab, the dubiously effective PRP. Even within Tommy John surgery, there are several variations (Altchek? Jobe? Andrews?). Stay tuned folks, this could be an interesting case.

Now is the hour of Zduriencik hagiography
If Zduriencik were a financial asset, I would be shorting him with every dime I had. Put it this way, could any GM be as good as some are making him out to be? (Subquestion: is there any way to securitize GMs?) It's worth noting that Tim Marchman recently ranked Zduriencik the fifth best GM in baseball.



Read the full article...

<< Previous Column Entries Next Column Entries >>