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Lies, Damned Lies 

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05-07

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35

Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

03-26

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22

Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests
by
Nate Silver

02-23

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43

Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds
by
Nate Silver

08-22

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft (Part 2)
by
Nate Silver

08-21

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft
by
Nate Silver

08-14

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Tufte Takes on the Tigers
by
Nate Silver

08-07

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Bonds Bingo
by
Nate Silver

07-24

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Lies, Damned Lies: Shrinking the Ballpark
by
Nate Silver

07-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: Running Up the White Flag
by
Nate Silver

07-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: Flipping the Switch
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Nate Silver

06-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

06-19

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Trying to Get LOESS-t
by
Nate Silver

06-11

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Chipper's Chase of .400
by
Nate Silver

06-05

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

05-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating Pitcher Hitting
by
Nate Silver

05-22

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-15

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?
by
Nate Silver

05-08

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Second Basemen
by
Nate Silver

04-25

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Age of Suspicion
by
Nate Silver

04-18

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Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays
by
Nate Silver

04-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: Picking the Under
by
Nate Silver

04-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings
by
Nate Silver

03-28

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on First Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Catching Prospects
by
Nate Silver

02-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: The New-Look PECOTA Cards
by
Nate Silver

02-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Smoking Gun?
by
Nate Silver

10-31

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL West
by
Nate Silver

10-30

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL East
by
Nate Silver

10-23

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL East
by
Nate Silver

10-18

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL West
by
Nate Silver

10-12

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL Central
by
Nate Silver

10-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL Central
by
Nate Silver

10-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Greatest Pennant Race Comebacks
by
Nate Silver

09-27

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

09-21

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4

Lies, Damned Lies: The Best Player in Baseball, Part Two
by
Nate Silver

09-20

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2

Lies, Damned Lies: The Best Player in Baseball, Part One
by
Nate Silver

09-13

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: New Life on Different Fields
by
Nate Silver

09-06

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Lies, Damned Lies: Ticket Pricing
by
Nate Silver

09-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Contenders' Rotations
by
Nate Silver

08-23

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Lies, Damned Lies: Rookies and Cycles
by
Nate Silver

08-20

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Lies, Damned Lies: Slotto Madness, Part 3
by
Nate Silver

08-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Slotto Bonanzas, Part Two
by
Nate Silver

08-17

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Lies, Damned Lies: Slotto Bonanzas, Part One
by
Nate Silver

08-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: Baseball's New Underclass
by
Nate Silver

07-27

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Lies, Damned Lies: Fixing It
by
Nate Silver

07-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Ned's Report Card
by
Nate Silver

07-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: All-Star Game Wrap
by
Nate Silver

06-28

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Lies, Damned Lies: All-Star Balloting
by
Nate Silver

06-21

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Lies, Damned Lies: Be Sharp
by
Nate Silver

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Things are getting interesting, so let's talk about the odds.

Chipper Jones is not a .400 hitter. However, that doesn’t mean that he won’t hit .400. What we have on our hands is a classic case of the irresistible force against the immovable object. On the one hand, it’s exceptionally unlikely that a player who has hit .310 over a 15-year major league career suddenly woke up one morning at 35 years old and became a .400 hitter. Jones is seeing the ball exceptionally well, and apart from frequent problems with injury, he has aged relatively gracefully. He’s also undoubtedly squeezed a few lucky hits in between the shortstop and the second baseman, and had a few Texas Leaguers drop in.

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June 5, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Projecting the Top of the Crop

0

Nate Silver

The early returns on PECOTA's projecting last season's big-bonus draft choices.

This was the first year that we attempted to run PECOTA forecasts for players with no professional playing time whatsoever. It was a decision born out of necessity: because of all the brinkmanship in the signing bonus negotiation period last year, a large number of elite draft picks either did not start their seasons until August, or didn't play professionally at all.

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Projecting the value of the best-hitting pitchers, as well as the worst.

In the six years that I've generated PECOTA forecasts, I've never bothered to run hitting projections for pitchers. In fact, I've regarded pitcher hitting as something of a nuisance; I specifically screen out any pitchers so that they won't be selected as comparable players. This isn't an aesthetic judgment by any means-watching pitchers try (and fail) to hit is one of my favorite pastimes. But since even the pitchers who make 35 starts a year won't usually get more than 80 or 90 plate appearances, I've generally figured that it wasn't quite worth the trouble.

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May 22, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects

0

Nate Silver

Although it might seem as if the best shortstop prospects are already playing every day in the majors, there's an interesting crop on the way up.

Excellent Prospects

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May 15, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?

0

Nate Silver

Ease up there, Hemingway, we're talking about pitchers, and whether we're missing a few from the last couple of decades.

When we see the level of offense go up or down in baseball-and it has been down dramatically this season-we tend to attribute it to everything other than the players themselves. In any given downturn, it's the bats, or the baseballs, or the ballparks, or the drugs that the players are injecting themselves with. Or all of those things. But what if it isn't all about context? What if, when offense is up, it literally does mean that there aren't very many good pitchers?

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May 8, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects

0

Nate Silver

PECOTA loves quite a few young third basemen, but how many of them will remain at the hot corner?

Player (Age) Upside Evan Longoria, Rays (22) 339.1 Andy LaRoche, Dodgers (24) 178.0

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May 2, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Second Basemen

0

Nate Silver

The list of top keystone prospects includes a mix of young players to watch and older players who fell out of favor.

When we last ran an installment of the PECOTA Takes on Prospects series, gas prices were nearing $4.00 a gallon, the Democratic primary looked like it would never end, and the stock market was more jittery than Will Carroll on his fourteenth cup of coffee. All right, so perhaps not all that much has changed. But let's get back on track by tackling second basemen.

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Has the guessing game over who used what when gone too far?

Every time I do a chat aroud this time of year, when small sample sizes encourage people to leap to conclusions, I get a couple of questions like these (names have been changed to protect those who have lost their innocence):

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April 18, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays

0

Nate Silver

After a quick bit of aging, the Astros' shortstop might not lose much to Father Time now, but the clock's ticking.

My first thought after I learned that Miguel Tejada was two years older than his listed birth date was that I wasn't really all that surprised by the news. My second thought was that he just threw away his shot at the Hall of Fame. One of these two thoughts is valid; the other is a little out of place. Let's take care of the obvious part first. Below is a comparison of Miguel Tejada's original PECOTA forecast with a new one that we've generated by aging him exactly two years and leaving everything else alone:

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April 4, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Picking the Under

0

Nate Silver

Which players might struggle to match their PECOTA projections this year?

It's actually much more difficult to come up with an 'anti-' list than a 'pro-' list. Not only do I really feel like I have to bet against my own system, but it seems like I'm picking on individual players and teams. If it makes you feel any better, two of the eleven names you see below play prominent roles on one or another of my fantasy teams.

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April 3, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings

0

Nate Silver

Who might most outperform their PECOTAs? Plus projected standings and the top three storylines of the new season.

Spring has a way of creeping up on you in the Midwest, and it crept up on me this year without my ever getting an article out on the PECOTA projected standings. So, rather than try and pretend that that I didn't see what happened over the first couple days of the season-I will point out that my three favorite teams (the Tigers, White Sox, and Cubs) are a collective 0-6-I'm instead going to focus things at the player level, and give you a list of 11 guys that I expect to outperform their PECOTA forecasts this year. Tomorrow, we'll do the equally fun part of this list: those guys that I expect to underachieve PECOTA.

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March 28, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on First Base Prospects

0

Nate Silver

It's not a position where a lot of youngsters make it, but there are at least two excellent prospects at first.

This article is the second in our (deliberately-paced) annual series of PECOTA-based prospect rankings. For the first article in the series, and a discussion of methodology, head back here.

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