CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Fantasy Freestyle 

Search Fantasy Freestyle

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

09-17

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Streaming Strikeouts
by
J.P. Breen

09-15

comment icon

7

Fantasy Freestyle: The Other Guys, Part Two: National League
by
Mike Gianella

09-12

comment icon

9

Fantasy Freestyle: The Process of Analyzing Process: A Keeper League Example
by
Jeff Quinton

09-08

comment icon

10

Fantasy Freestyle: The Other Guys, Part One: American League
by
Mike Gianella

09-04

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: A Behavioral Look at Lineup Setting
by
Jeff Quinton

09-03

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Danny Duffy
by
Craig Goldstein

08-29

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy Corey Dickerson
by
Craig Goldstein

08-28

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing the Competitive Landscape
by
Jeff Quinton

08-25

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Weak Links
by
Mike Gianella

08-22

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting for Era
by
Craig Goldstein

08-21

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

08-21

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Week 21
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

08-20

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Being Wrong About Yovani Gallardo
by
J.P. Breen

08-15

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Starling Marte and Being Wrong
by
Craig Goldstein

08-13

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Setting Expectations on Superstars
by
J.P. Breen

08-11

comment icon

9

Fantasy Freestyle: Other Competitive Balance Mechanisms
by
Mike Gianella

08-08

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Jeremy Hellickson
by
Craig Goldstein

08-07

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: A Strategy Example From the Deadline
by
Jeff Quinton

08-04

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Leagues With In-Season Salary Caps
by
Mike Gianella

07-31

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought
by
Jeff Quinton

07-28

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: FAAB in Review: Asking the Non-Experts
by
Mike Gianella

07-24

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis
by
Jeff Quinton

07-23

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Useful Non-Closer Relievers
by
J.P. Breen

07-21

comment icon

10

Fantasy Freestyle: The MLB Trade Landscape, Buyers
by
Mike Gianella

07-18

comment icon

15

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Chris Davis
by
Craig Goldstein

07-17

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

07-15

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have Made
by
Mike Gianella

07-11

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Charlie Morton
by
Wilson Karaman

07-11

comment icon

10

Fantasy Freestyle: What to Expect From Jimmy Nelson
by
Craig Goldstein

07-10

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-09

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Don't Forget About Me
by
J.P. Breen

07-07

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Edition, Sellers
by
Mike Gianella

07-03

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Rick Porcello: Buy or Sell?
by
Craig Goldstein

07-02

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

06-30

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: Looking at Values, Part 2: Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

06-27

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Veterans With Value
by
Craig Goldstein

06-26

comment icon

5

Fantasy Freestyle: Weaknesses, Decision Framing, and Trades
by
Jeff Quinton

06-25

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Looking at Values, Part 1: Hitters
by
Mike Gianella

06-25

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Checking in on Cinderella: Pitchers
by
J.P. Breen

06-20

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: My Catcher Fetish and Derek Norris
by
Craig Goldstein

06-19

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

06-19

comment icon

7

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeping Tabs on the Cubs' Top Prospects
by
Mauricio Rubio

06-18

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: A Deeper Look at FAAB in Deeper Leagues
by
Mike Gianella

06-18

comment icon

7

Fantasy Freestyle: Checking in on Cinderella: Hitters
by
J.P. Breen

06-13

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: In-Season Strategic Agility
by
Jeff Quinton

06-13

comment icon

11

Fantasy Freestyle: Straight Chasing
by
Mauricio Rubio

06-09

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Perception and (Valuation) Reality
by
Mike Gianella

06-05

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper League Purgatory
by
Jeff Quinton

06-04

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Profiling Alex Reyes
by
Craig Goldstein

06-03

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Success Stories in the Endgame, Part Two
by
Mike Gianella

<< Previous Column Entries Next Column Entries >>

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 26, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Weaknesses, Decision Framing, and Trades

5

Jeff Quinton

When looking for ways to improve your fantasy team, it's important not to mistake weaknesses for opportunities.

Narrow or incorrect decision framing will lead to bad decisions. This is nothing new. I even did a primer, an overview one could say, on decision framing (here). In short, by taking too narrow a view of a particular decision, we may miss out on less obvious, more optimal options. Today, we will be bringing this conversation on decision framing down to a more specific level; that level being how we go about trading to improve our team. For this article, I will keep the conversation to redraft leagues; however, the concepts can certainly be applied to any league.

When looking to improve our team, the first thing we tend to do is look to improve our biggest weaknesses. Brief example: if our pitchers are terrible and our hitters are good, then we look to trade hitting for pitching. The “fix your weaknesses” strategy is not exclusive to fantasy baseball either. In business we use resources to grow in markets where we are underrepresented, we perform the most analysis on how to improve our weakest brands, and we take the most time to make decision about our least profitable products. In baseball, we ask if a prolific minor leaguer would be able to handle a position switch in order to replace our least prolific major leaguer, we ask if we are better off finding a platoon partner for a hitter who is really struggling against lefties, etc. Our obsession with weaknesses seems innate.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 25, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Looking at Values, Part 1: Hitters

1

Mike Gianella

Examining how bats have performed relative to their fantasy price tags to this point in the season.

In the fantasy baseball community, we have reached the time of year when we start examining player performances, because we are at or near the halfway point of the season. This designation is as arbitrary as arbitrary endpoints get. However, there is enough data to begin to at least develop a picture of how accurate or inaccurate we were prior to the regular season compared to the actual results.

This week I will take a look at the best, most expensive, biggest bargains, and biggest busts in the NL and AL-only hitter pools. Next week, I will look at the pitchers.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 25, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Checking in on Cinderella: Pitchers

2

J.P. Breen

These starters may have unexpectedly anchored your staff in the early going, but can they keep it up going forward?

Last week, we discussed the difficulty of evaluating unexpected early-season studs. Their cumulative statistics can often camouflage a subsequent downturn in performance because of a strong month of April, leaving fantasy owners hanging on to overperformers longer than they should. It simply takes too long for the overall numbers to become unpalatable when they’re bolstered by an extremely strong stretch early in the year. Thus, it is important to isolate recent performance and determine whether Cinderella has legitimate staying power as early as possible. Fantasy owners can’t afford to pick up guys like Emilio Bonifacio during his hot stretch and stick with him for the next couple months while he drags his feet behind the remainder of one’s roster.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 20, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: My Catcher Fetish and Derek Norris

2

Craig Goldstein

The A's backstop is off to a sizzling start; what does it mean for Norris and other young catchers who struggled early in their careers?

I kind of have a thing for catchers. That’s a weird thing to have to admit, and frankly I didn’t even know this was the case for much of my life. You don’t necessarily know you’re weird until you’re on a podcast with three supposed friends and they call you out for having a catcher fetish. What a shameful moment.

All this is to say, I tend to value catchers more than your average fantasy analyst. There’s not a right or a wrong in this concept, it’s just a different approach. Except when it comes to Derek Norris, in which case it’s a totally correct approach because have you seen his slash line? His .313/.416/.531 line is likely a mirage of sorts, but there’s plenty of supporting evidence as to why Norris, who has previously struggled, is now a monster at the plate.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 19, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Paralysis

3

Jeff Quinton

A look at ways to alleviate the fear that sometimes accompanies a seemingly fair trade proposal.

This article starts with a feeling. That feeling being the one you get when you contemplate a particular type of trade offer—a fair trade offer. You know the feeling I am talking about, I know you do. The exhilaration and excitement come first, but these feelings are quickly washed over by another, stronger feeling—fear. At this point, you are beyond the constructive weighing of pros and cons; your mind is simply racing with every conceivable negative outcome. Maybe your fears are like mine, and maybe they sometimes go something like this:

“This guy throws sliders 30 percent of the time and his mechanics aren’t great. Is he due for a DL stint?” “I know 32 is not that old, but he did play in 15 less games in 2013 than he did in 2012.” “Is his strikeout rate trending the wrong way?” “This guy’s true talent is better, but he has the same amount of homers that my guy has right now. Is it really an upgrade?” “I’m trading away current production for potential future production that might never be realized. This might end up looking really bad for me.” “Am I giving up too much with no guarantee that this will significantly improve my team?”

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 19, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeping Tabs on the Cubs' Top Prospects

7

Mauricio Rubio

Updating the fantasy stock of Chicago's best young hitting talents.

Kris Bryant was promoted to Triple-A Iowa, where he will likely play third base and hit in close proximity to the Cubs’ other talented and highly touted prospect Javier Baez.

Before the season started, the spring had created clever illusions about Baez, as Cubs fans and fantasy owners alike salivated at the possibility that each preseason laser beam to the outfield seats would draw him closer to major-league playing time in 2014. A deep slump to start the year popped those illusions, as those same fans and fantasy owners were left holding their heads in their hands and looking for a consolation that could only come after the high-risk proposition in Baez started solving the puzzle that is pitch sequencing.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 18, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: A Deeper Look at FAAB in Deeper Leagues

2

Mike Gianella

Mike examines whether clinging to FAAB dollars or trading for more to use deep into the season is a good idea.

Last week in Tout Wars (NL-only) I made a trade, flipping hot prospect Kris Bryant (yes, it is a non-keeper league, why do you ask?) for Tony Cruz and $50 in free agent acquisition budget (FAAB). I needed space on my reserve list and wasn’t going to deal Bryant (I had planned on cutting John Mayberry or a middle reliever) but the $50 FAAB was too good to pass up so I made the deal.

The trade left me with the most FAAB to spend by far; I had $141 compared to the next-highest team’s $96. I wasn’t going to cut Bryant, so I can’t quite look at the trade like it was something for nothing, but with Bryant’s ETA an open question I didn’t have a big problem making the move. The gamble is that 1) Bryant won’t be up until at least August, and 2) the best free agent who comes over from the American League is better than Bryant.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 18, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Checking in on Cinderella: Hitters

7

J.P. Breen

In part one of two, J.P. looks at which early-season darlings have sustained their production and which have fallen off a cliff.

In covering fantasy baseball for the past couple of years, I’ve noticed that one of the biggest struggles for fantasy owners is evaluating players who enjoyed surprisingly good starts. Some owners wait out the subsequent rough patch because they’re convinced the good times will return. More often, though, the decline in performance goes relatively unnoticed because it is masked by the torrid start to the season. That is, the overall statistics for a player can seem palatable, while that guy is actually an anchor that drags the whole team down the standings for weeks before the downturn in performance becomes obvious in the seasonal numbers.

This article aims to cut through the fog of early-season overperformance in an attempt to determine whether a guy still has fantasy value. After all, a pumpkin can be transformed into a beautiful carriage for a while, but it’s only temporary. Its real identity eventually shines through, and ultimately, it is what we thought it was: an unattractive orange gourd that we pretend to care about for a few weeks around the end of October (note: this is ignoring the revelation that is pumpkin pie, which I’m throwing a comfortable 70 on and won’t listen to any arguments to the contrary).

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 13, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: In-Season Strategic Agility

0

Jeff Quinton

Sunk costs impact everyone's fantasy decisions, but acting on them the right way can give you an advantage.

Earlier in the calendar year, I wrote about strategic agility on auction and draft day. Today, we discuss in-season strategic agility, which is really more about decision framing and sunk costs than actual strategy. We are at the point of the season where we should be deciding or at least analyzing if we should be buyers, sellers, or standing pat. There are serious obstacles to overcome when doing this critical (for fantasy baseball purposes) analysis, those obstacles being our past decisions. As many others and I have mentioned before, our desire to be right (not wrong) is often greater than our desire to optimize profit, utility, fantasy baseball glory, etc. When our past strategic decisions turn out to be wrong, we may very well find ourselves trying to make up for our mistakes instead of making the best decision based on where we currently stand. To overcome these obstacles we will take a look at how we come to face them, what causes us to fall victim to them, how we can overcome them, and how we can leverage sunk costs against our leaguemates.

Please allow me to start with an example and go from there. Example:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 13, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Straight Chasing

11

Mauricio Rubio

Is your fantasy team lagging behind in a particular 5x5 category? Mauricio's here to help.

In fantasy baseball and in life, even the best-laid plans can go down the tubes in quick and spectacular fashion.

Sometimes you gamble on Jose Veras and Prince Fielder to help carry you into first in saves and home runs, respectively. Maybe you thought Jose Fernandez was invincible and he alone would anchor your pitching staff as a true ace, both in fantasy and in the real world. Or maybe you had this surprise planned out for someone that you really liked, but then they found, out and now the whole thing is ruined, and now you don’t know what to do because oh my god why couldn’t Jesse just keep his mouth shut?

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 9, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Perception and (Valuation) Reality

2

Mike Gianella

Most buy-low and sell-high players are too obvious, but for some, groupthink can lead to gaps between real and perceived value.

For the most part, the idea of buying low and selling high is a waste of everybody’s time.

We all know that Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson aren’t going to finish the season with earned run averages of 2.04 and 1.97, respectively. It is extremely unlikely that Nelson Cruz will finish the year with 60 home runs and 150 runs batted in. We even know that the superstars who are crushing it now are going to slip somewhat. If you were going to bet the over/under on Troy Tulowitzki hitting .360 or Giancarlo Stanton hitting 45 home runs, the safe bet on both would be the under.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 5, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper League Purgatory

6

Jeff Quinton

Advice for owners who feel like they're stuck in no-man's land between contention and dumping.

After taking the last week off, it is good to be back. Today we are talking in-season keeper league strategy (we will get #behavioral next week). More specifically, we will be talking about being in the curious position of being neither a buyer nor a seller—of being in keeper league purgatory. This position does not occur in each league every year. In leagues where half the teams have a shot at a title and the other half clearly do not, every owner is either a buyer or a seller. We have not gathered here today to talk about those leagues because those leagues have no purgatory. No, we are here in this very moment to talk about leagues where first place and, potentially, other top finishes have seemingly been decided, leaving the teams battling for lesser payouts and higher minor league draft picks (or some other similar payout/finish structure) disincentivized to be buyers.

First question of the article: why are these teams disincentivized to be buyers? They are disincentivized because no matter what they buy they are unlikely to meaningfully improve their position. Second question: what do I mean by meaningfully improve their position? Almost a fortnight of Sundays ago I wrote about the fantasy win curve, which denotes the value of an increase in the standings. If the value difference between, let us say, third and seventh is not meaningful, and first and second place are not attainable, then teams likely to finish in the 3-7 range will not be incentivized to sell long term assets for assets that will help them win this year. On top of that, if third-to-seventh-place finishes hold monetary (cash) or long-term (higher picks) value, then these teams will not be incentivize to sell short term assets for long term assets either. Essentially, these teams are incentivized to do nothing; they are in keeper league purgatory.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Column Entries Next Column Entries >>