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05-26

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: So About That Nick Castellanos Breakout
by
Wilson Karaman

05-26

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Miggy's Decline?
by
Matt Collins

05-25

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Fantasy Draft Rankings for Imaginary Players
by
Mike Gianella

05-19

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Home League Temperature Check
by
Scooter Hotz

05-12

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Selling Low on Two Pitchers
by
Matt Collins

05-01

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Stash List Supplemental
by
Greg Wellemeyer

04-28

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: The All-April Team
by
Matt Collins

04-27

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: I’m Very Nervous
by
Mike Gianella

04-21

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: My Fantasy Investment Portfolio—Minor Leaguers I Own Across Multiple Leagues
by
Scooter Hotz

04-20

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Reconsidering Your Targets
by
Mike Gianella

04-14

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Three Surprising Strikeout Surgers
by
Matt Collins

04-14

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: My Fantasy Investment Portfolio: Major League Players I Own Across Multiple Leagues
by
Scooter Hotz

04-06

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: The PFM and The Model Portfolio
by
Mike Gianella

04-05

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Fixing What Broke in Francisco Liriano
by
Alex Chamberlain

04-03

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Five to Watch: Leadoff Surprises
by
Greg Wellemeyer

03-27

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: My First Auction of 2017
by
Scooter Hotz

03-23

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Auction Prep: Auction Podcast Takeaways
by
Jeff Quinton

03-23

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Reviewing the 2016 Model Portfolios
by
Greg Wellemeyer

03-21

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: My First Draft of 2017
by
Scooter Hotz

03-20

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting for Smaller Leagues
by
Mike Gianella

03-13

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: An All-Post-Hype Team
by
Matt Collins

03-03

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: PECOTA, the PFM, My Bid Limits, and You
by
Mike Gianella

03-02

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Robbie Ray and Statcast
by
Tim Finnegan

01-07

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Twenty Questions For 2017
by
BP Fantasy Staff

01-04

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Using Statcast Analytics for Fantasy Decisions
by
Tim Finnegan

10-17

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: An Avoid Retrospective
by
Wilson Karaman

10-10

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: A Target Retrospective
by
Wilson Karaman

09-29

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Five Short-Season Hitters to Watch
by
Wilson Karaman

09-15

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: What I Learned This Year
by
Wilson Karaman

09-09

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Positioning Your Team for Success
by
Mike Gianella

09-07

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Three Thoughts About 2016
by
J.P. Breen

09-02

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: 2016 In-Season Valuations: Third Edition
by
Mike Gianella

09-01

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Five Low-Minors Prospects I Like
by
Wilson Karaman

08-31

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Worrying About Innings Limits
by
J.P. Breen

08-26

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: DRA Do-Gooders
by
Wilson Karaman

08-18

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: The Unsung Heroes of the Shortstop Revolution
by
Wilson Karaman

08-17

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Recent Top Performers: Pitchers and Outfielders
by
J.P. Breen

08-10

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Post-Mortem
by
J.P. Breen

08-04

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Early Returns on the 2016 Draft Class
by
Wilson Karaman

07-27

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: Four Things I Believe
by
J.P. Breen

07-22

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Yasiel Puig's Missing Pop
by
Wilson Karaman

07-13

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: First-Half Awards
by
J.P. Breen

07-08

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Second-Half... Bounce Backs?
by
Mike Gianella

07-07

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Gimme Some of That Sweet Ratio Love
by
Wilson Karaman

06-30

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Dynasty Prospects: A Few of My Favorites
by
Wilson Karaman

06-24

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Bargains and Busts, Midseason Edition
by
Mike Gianella

06-17

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: So What's Going on with Jose Abreu, Anyway?
by
Wilson Karaman

06-17

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: On Average, We'd Rather Not
by
Mike Gianella

06-10

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper-League Trading: A Primer
by
Mike Gianella

06-09

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Fantasy Freestyle: Evaluating the California League All-Stars
by
Wilson Karaman

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May 26, 2017 6:21 am

Fantasy Freestyle: So About That Nick Castellanos Breakout

4

Wilson Karaman

Castellanos has been a big disappointment. Will that change with an adjustment?

During the pre-season I spouted several things that, at least so far in the few months since, have proven to have been damned, dirty lies. One of these things was that Nick Castellanos was gonna be a Guy. The pedigree as an elite hit-tool guy was there, I noted, and at 6-foot-4, 210 with a rapidly heightening launch angle, he was a perfect candidate to break out in a big way.

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May 26, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Miggy's Decline?

0

Matt Collins

Through 33 games, the Detroit Tigers stalwart is having his worst season since he broke in as a 20-year-old in 2003. He just turned 34, but have physical issues caught up the likely Hall of Fame slugger?

For more than a decade, Miguel Cabrera has been one of the truly elite hitters in all of baseball. Despite consistently great performances, fantasy owners in recent seasons have been wary of using first-round picks (or equivalent money in auctions) on the future Hall of Famer, with concern for his imminent decline engrained in discussions of his value. Repeatedly, he’s proven that kind of talk to be silly, and that he’s still an elite hitter. Still, time eventually catches up with all of us, and even Cabrera isn’t immune to the aging curve.

With that in mind, it’s worth considering how Cabrera has struggled to start the season. At least, he’s struggled relative to the standards he’s set for himself. Through his first 139 plate appearances, he is hitting .264/.360/.430 for a TAv of .267. Prior to this season, his lowest TAv not including his rookie year was .295, and that was way back in 2008. He’s ranked as the 32nd first baseman on the Player Rater, right between Mike Napoli and Wilmer Flores. To put it simply, this is not the kind of performance at the plate that we’ve come to expect from Cabrera. Is this the start of that decline we’ve long been worried about—or is it just a blip on the radar?

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Hooray for Hollywood! From Henry Rowengartner to Clu Haywood, how much would these well-known dramaticized ballplayers go for in the fantasy game?



Read the full article...

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May 19, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Home League Temperature Check

1

Scooter Hotz

Aaron Judge is turning out better than expectations, while Robert Gsellman is not.

My weekly column, the Deep League Report, focuses on deep AL-only leagues and deep NL-only leagues. I play in a deep AL-only keeper league myself with my BP colleague Mike Gianella, and I play in a deep NL-only keeper league, too, where eight of the 12 owners also belong to the AL-only league. I use these leagues to help inform my weekly column, seeing which players are available on the waiver wire or in free agency, which players are being dropped or reserved, which players are being picked up and how much FAAB is being spent on each player. Today I’ll take a look at how each of my teams are doing in these leagues.

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May 12, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Selling Low on Two Pitchers

3

Matt Collins

Julio Teheran and Kevin Gausman have been disappointing in 2017. Rather than waiting for a rebound, perhaps it's time to cut bait on both for this season.

Buying low and selling high is the most basic strategy in fantasy sports. Everyone knows to do this, and identifying the proper players whom to buy low or sell high is among the keys to any successful fantasy season. It’s a little more complicated than just looking for players either playing below their capabilities, or those who are playing over their heads. Sometimes, players playing poorly aren’t going to get better, or players who are off to hot starts really aren’t going to slow down.

Conversely, figuring when to buy high or sell low can be just as important as the most basic tenant of fantasy sports. Today, I’m going to look at a couple of pitchers who came into the season with relatively high expectations and have been bad to this point. Generally, with the samples still being small, these are guys you want to buy or hold. In these specific cases, though, the value could very well get worse, and selling now instead of hoping for a turnaround could be the best call.

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May 1, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Stash List Supplemental

3

Greg Wellemeyer

These players also are worth watching.

Every Thursday I publish the Stash List, an ordering of the 25 players I think can come up and help fantasy baseballers in standard-depth mixed leagues. It’s fun to put together and I enjoy the ensuing conversation that typically takes place in the comments.

That said, I acknowledge the limited utility of telling you that Yoan Moncada is good. He’s certainly owned in any competitive league with conventional lineup settings. Additionally, for those of you in deep and mono formats, the standard weekly column can be a helpful thought exercise, but it isn’t always actionable. With that in mind, I’ll plan to use my space every other Monday to discuss some names that might actually be available in deeper player pools. These will be performers in the high minors, prospects without the kinds of ceilings we need for standard-depth usefulness, and speculation on who might fill roles for teams who’ll start stripping down come mid-summer. Unlike the Stash List proper, these aren’t necessarily the best deep-league stashes at any given time, just some players and situations I’m watching.

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April 28, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The All-April Team

1

Matt Collins

Eric Thames (probably) won't keep up this home-run pace, but he still might be among the elite fantasy first basemen. It's harder to see Chris Owings and Jett Bandy continuing their respective paces, however.

On Thursday, Mike Gianella reminded all of us that it is far-too early to be worried about our rosters. April stretches obviously get us more worried than any other poor month-long periods, simply because there is no encouraging stretch of time beforehand to alleviate our concerns. To put it another way: The current sample is too small to inform any sweeping evaluations. With that being said, April performances sometimes do last all season, and identifying the sustainable early trends can catapult you to a championship. Keeping that in mind, let’s take a look at the best players at each position on ESPN’s Player Rater and see if they can remain fantasy assets throughout the season, or if they simply are mirages we’ll look back at a year from now and laugh about.

(Note: These rankings are through action Wednesday.)

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April 27, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: I’m Very Nervous

8

Mike Gianella

It's no longer too early to worry—which is exactly why Mike is concerned.

Yes, I know: April isn’t even over—heck, we haven’t reached the 1/8th point of the season yet—but there are reasons why I’m nervous about my chances to win this year.

To start with, my competitors seem to have all the freaking luck. I know that Michael Conforto was supposed to be good, but a .365 batting average, four home runs, 15 RBIs, and 18 runs in 86 plate appearances? I thought he was going to provide a fourth outfielder’s production. I know Bryce Harper always gets off to a fast start, but nine home runs and five steals in 96 plate appearances? Boy, do I regret not going the extra dollar on him in Tout Wars. Even more annoying are the hitters who came out of nowhere. Colby Rasmus (7 HR, 19 RBIa, 95 PA) and Aledmys Diaz (4 HR, .423 AVG, 75 PA) are killing me. not only in my AL and NL leagues, but in my mixed leagues as well.

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If Franklin Barreto and Francisco Mejia blossom, Scooter will score big-time.

This past week, I went through my fantasy investment portfolio for major leaguers across my seven leagues. This week, I’m going to walk through the minor-league side of my fantasy investment portfolio across my five leagues that allow minor leaguers.

Here’s a high-level rundown of the configuration of those five leagues:

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April 20, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Reconsidering Your Targets

2

Mike Gianella

Early on, look less at the data while watching more baseball.

April is a rough time for baseball analysts, fantasy or otherwise. We’re so excited to finally write about real baseball games that many of us inevitably jump the gun and start trying to parse through miniscule amounts of data. My best advice during the first 2-3 weeks of the season is to watch as much baseball as you can while looking at as little data as possible. Yes, this includes looking at how your teams are doing in their fantasy leagues. This is particularly true if your team is off to a poor start. Spend enough time looking at poor results for a two-week period and you might find yourself believing that your team really is this bad.

However, while performances seldom impact a fantasy team’s overall fortunes, events frequently do. Injuries are the most dramatic performance-altering event, but lineup changes or mid-season minor-league promotions can have an impact as well, particularly in deeper leagues. But the in-season change I want to talk about today involves closers.

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April 14, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Three Surprising Strikeout Surgers

5

Matt Collins

Where did these whiffers come from?

J.A. Happ

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Who does Scooter love? How about Matt Moore six times?

This past weekend, I had my last two auctions of the season, my AL-only league on Saturday and my NL-only league on Sunday. While I love fantasy baseball, there is a sense of relief that comes from closing the book on drafting and auctioning teams for the year. With a few days of perspective, I repeated an exercise I performed last season and took a look at which players I owned the most often across my seven leagues.

Here’s a high-level rundown of the configuration of my seven leagues:

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