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08-31

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Fantasy Freestyle: Worrying About Innings Limits
by
J.P. Breen

08-26

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Fantasy Freestyle: DRA Do-Gooders
by
Wilson Karaman

08-18

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: The Unsung Heroes of the Shortstop Revolution
by
Wilson Karaman

08-17

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Recent Top Performers: Pitchers and Outfielders
by
J.P. Breen

08-10

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Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Post-Mortem
by
J.P. Breen

08-04

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Fantasy Freestyle: Early Returns on the 2016 Draft Class
by
Wilson Karaman

07-27

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: Four Things I Believe
by
J.P. Breen

07-22

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Fantasy Freestyle: Yasiel Puig's Missing Pop
by
Wilson Karaman

07-13

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: First-Half Awards
by
J.P. Breen

07-08

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Second-Half... Bounce Backs?
by
Mike Gianella

07-07

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Fantasy Freestyle: Gimme Some of That Sweet Ratio Love
by
Wilson Karaman

06-30

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Dynasty Prospects: A Few of My Favorites
by
Wilson Karaman

06-24

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Bargains and Busts, Midseason Edition
by
Mike Gianella

06-17

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Fantasy Freestyle: So What's Going on with Jose Abreu, Anyway?
by
Wilson Karaman

06-17

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Fantasy Freestyle: On Average, We'd Rather Not
by
Mike Gianella

06-10

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Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper-League Trading: A Primer
by
Mike Gianella

06-09

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Fantasy Freestyle: Evaluating the California League All-Stars
by
Wilson Karaman

06-09

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Building a Contender in TGDX
by
J.P. Breen

06-08

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Mark Trumbo and Being Wrong
by
Jeff Quinton

06-02

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Fantasy Freestyle: Yes, You Can Stream Jeff Locke, Except You Can't
by
Wilson Karaman

05-27

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Fantasy Freestyle: Batted-Ball Trajectory and BABIP Overachievers
by
Wilson Karaman

05-19

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: New Managers and Stolen Bases
by
J.P. Breen

05-13

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Fantasy Freestyle: What Happened to Last Year's Hot Starters
by
Mike Gianella

05-12

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Fantasy Freestyle: Prospect Tweet Bag
by
Wilson Karaman

05-06

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: We're Doing it Wrong
by
Mike Gianella

05-05

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Fantasy Freestyle: Early-Season Ramblings
by
Wilson Karaman

04-28

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: The Best Fastballs of the First Few Weeks
by
Wilson Karaman

04-22

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: The Art of the Steal
by
Mike Gianella

04-20

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Fantasy Freestyle: Batted-Ball Profile and Team Defensive Context, Part 2
by
Wilson Karaman

04-15

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Fantasy Freestyle: It's Early, Calm Down
by
Mike Gianella

04-13

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Batted Balls and Team Defensive Context
by
Wilson Karaman

04-12

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Fantasy Freestyle: My Fantasy Investment Portfolio
by
Scooter Hotz

04-08

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: The Problem With the Rules in Standard Leagues
by
Mike Gianella

04-06

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Bold Predictions for 2016
by
Wilson Karaman

04-01

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Spring Training Risers
by
J.J. Jansons

03-29

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Juan Nicasio: Is it Too Soon to Buy in?
by
George Bissell

03-29

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Distributing Dollars
by
Mike Gianella

03-24

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Fantasy Freestyle: The BP Local Fantasy Baseball Guide
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-24

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Auction Bargains
by
Scooter Hotz

03-24

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: Endgame Targets
by
Bret Sayre

03-18

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Fantasy Freestyle: Recapping the 2015 Model Portfolios
by
Greg Wellemeyer

03-17

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing ADP to Identify Bargains
by
J.P. Breen

03-17

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Fantasy Freestyle: Risers and Fallers in OBP Leagues
by
Scooter Hotz

03-15

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Spring Training Velocity Watch
by
Matt Collins

03-14

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Targeting Under-the-Radar Prospects for Rebuilds
by
J.P. Breen

01-08

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Fantasy Freestyle: A Look at Preliminary ADP Data
by
Wilson Karaman

01-08

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: Bounce-Back Candidates: Starting Pitchers
by
Keith Cromer

01-08

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: Dominican Winter League Retrospective Valuations
by
Greg Wellemeyer

01-06

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Fantasy Freestyle: Desert Dynamos
by
J.J. Jansons

01-05

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Inflation 101
by
Mike Gianella

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August 31, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Worrying About Innings Limits

0

J.P. Breen

Keeping an eye on a few pitchers who are just about ready to call it a year.

The September fantasy climate can be turbulent. Many owners have long stopped paying attention to their teams, September call-ups flood rosters with many more players to track, and innings limits can erode starting rotations.

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August 26, 2016 10:53 am

Fantasy Freestyle: DRA Do-Gooders

0

Wilson Karaman

Our advanced pitching metric suggests brighter days ahead for some of these hurlers.

As we head into the homestretch of the season some of you are angling for a title run, or a challenge for the money, or waiting in vain for your one-category “Perfect Games” league to get more interesting. I, however, play in at least two full keeper leagues in which mine eyes are affixed squarely upon the great horizon beyond 2016. And that means using this time of the year to start searching for potentially undervalued acquisition targets, either for your end-of-year FAAB queue or your off-season trade list. So let’s start in a basic and logical place with some pitchers who have performed much worse than their underlying metrics suggest they should have performed to date. Below is a table of the hurlers with the biggest gaps between their DRA and ERA. I’ve isolated guys who have performed at least a run and a half worse by ERA than their DRA suggests. And for the sake of weeding out some additional riffraff I’ve limited the pool to those arms who have performed as at least a roughly league-average level.

So without further ado, here’s our list:

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August 18, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The Unsung Heroes of the Shortstop Revolution

4

Wilson Karaman

A pack of elite shortstops is behind the position's resurgence, but there are some very noteworthy contributors beyond the cream of the crop.

Thirteen shortstops currently rank among the top 100 players overall per Sportsline’s standard rankings, including 10 among the top 50 overall, and those numbers mark a significant leap forward in status for six-spotter fantasy performance. Just eight earned top-100 status per our valuations last year, with only Xander Bogaerts cracking the top 50. The position’s renaissance has been driven by some who were expected to usher in a new age of relevance for the position, to be sure; Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, and pleasant surprise of re-eligibility Manny Machado all pepper the ranks of double-digit overall value. But there has been an interesting second wave of guys who were decidedly not expected to provide that kind of value, who have stepped up and taken their games to new levels this year. A full six of those 13 shortstops—yes, almost half—have produced top-100 value by outperforming their average draft positions by at least 200 spots. That’s league-winning surplus value, right there. So let’s take a look at that crew and see if we can’t figure out whether their meteoric respective rises represent new normals, or whether managers who’ve reaped their rewards this year will be best off selling high before keeper deadlines this winter.

Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Bewers (ADP: 317, Current Rank: 16)

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August 17, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Recent Top Performers: Pitchers and Outfielders

2

J.P. Breen

A closer look at the players who've stood out on the bump and at the plate of late.

Fantasy baseball necessitates relying on small sample sizes for day-to-day or week-to-week decisions, despite the recognition that it’s not desirable. I’ve written about that phenomenon in this space before. It means fantasy owners must take a gamble that some short samples are real, as the strategy of fantasy baseball doesn’t allow long-term trends to develop before acting. Players simply aren’t available long enough for a wait-and-see approach.

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August 10, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Post-Mortem

0

J.P. Breen

A look at how players' values have changed as a result of recent trades.

TRENDING UP

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August 4, 2016 10:47 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Early Returns on the 2016 Draft Class

0

Wilson Karaman

Wilson reviews the first impressions of a handful of prospects selected in this year's FYPD.

I’m in the middle of my home league’s midseason minor-league draft right now, and that has me thinking front and center about how this year’s draft class has looked in their professional debuts. As a brief aside before we dive in, I can’t recommend this format of prospect drafting strongly enough. This is a 16-team league with 11 minor-league slots per team, so 176 prospects are rostered at any given time. We hold two prospect drafts annually, one in February as the off-season lists are rolling out, and one right now, after the Rule 4 draft and opening of the international signing period on July 2nd. The specter of the mid-season draft beginning right after our trading deadline encourages more deals. It gives us an opportunity to pounce on the new talent while it’s still fresh. And we can pop the pop-up guys before they jump onto off-season lists. Then in the winter we get to clean up on the rest of the draft class that makes some noise after signing. It’s a wonderful way to play.

Anyway, back in the aftermath of the first-year player draft in June, our noble overlord Bret Sayre unveiled his Top 40 Dynasty League Prospects for the recently professionalized players of this class. We’re all of seven weeks removed from that list dropping, so realistically it is way, way too early in the process to go changing our pre-draft opinions on players. But that doesn’t mean we can’t start gathering some info on the early returns, for both the stars of the draft and the guys who might not have gone in the first round, but who may quickly emerge as interesting fantasy players.

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July 27, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Four Things I Believe

11

J.P. Breen

J.P. offers his thoughts on four hot fantasy topics.

(1) Leagues that use holds + saves, rather than just saves, must expand the number of required reliever roster spots.

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July 22, 2016 10:56 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Yasiel Puig's Missing Pop

0

Wilson Karaman

Pitchers have zoned in on the weaknesses in the Dodgers outfielder's swing, but can he adjust back?

On the heels of an injury-ridden 2015 that saw his numbers regress across the board, Yasiel Puig slipped from a borderline-top 20 guy on Mike Gianella’s Top 300 list a year ago to 77th on this year’s pre-season version. And after an awfully pedestrian first couple months of the season, in which he hit just .239 with nearly five whiffs for every walk, his value cratered all the way to 201st in Mike and Bret Sayre’s late-May update. Similarly, he slid from 46th on Bret’s pre-season Dynasty Top 500 into triple digits at 104 in the July update. It’s a freefall! Puig’s value is in freefall, I say!

So what are we supposed to do with him now? The good news is that he remains a physical specimen with an absurd arm, and if FRAA is to be believed, he’s been one of the best defensive right fielders in baseball this year in spite of a trip to the disabled list and periods of sporadic starting. All of those things are well and good, and the defensive value in particular is helpful fantasy-wise insofar as it keeps him in the regular lineup even when he’s struggling offensively. But offensive struggle has been the norm for Puig pretty much all season long. His below-average .255 TAv ranks 24th among right fielders with at least 250 plate appearances, just behind Pete Bourjos. Yes, the Peter Bourjos who was drafted 528th overall in leagues deep enough that people drafted Peter Bourjos. Puig’s return on investment has been… well, not good for fantasy players who drafted him in the fifth round this past spring. And it’s been an even worse development for those who are pot-committed in dynasty leagues. So let’s take a look at why his bat has been so lethargic this year, and whether there’s still hope for a sequel to his first impression.

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July 13, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: First-Half Awards

5

J.P. Breen

With the All-Star break upon us, J.P. dishes out some (figurative) hardware.

HITTERS

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July 8, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Second-Half... Bounce Backs?

8

Mike Gianella

A look at how likely it is that players who underperformed in the first half will rebound down the stretch.

How likely is it that a disappointing player will return to form in the second half?

It is a simple question, but often it is approached from the standpoint of the individual player, as opposed to on the larger level of whether or not underperforming players on the whole bounce back or if they continue to underperform. Rather than run through specific, case-by-case examples of players who are struggling this year, I thought instead I would examine this year’s disappointments in specific groups.

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July 7, 2016 10:57 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Gimme Some of That Sweet Ratio Love

1

Wilson Karaman

Examining a handful of relievers who could have considerable fantasy value even if they don't close.

Any time is a good time to check in on reliever leaderboards to try and spot a couple loose canons for hire off the ol' Waiver Wire, but I've always tended to gravitate towards this particular time of year for a more in-depth stock check. We've got a nice combination of half-season performance from some of the older-hat options along with some dynamic recent recalls sprinkled in, so it's a particularly fertile opportunity to add ratio support to your bullpen before the final push to most trading deadlines begins. The PITCHf/x leaderboards have glorious hallways in which to wander searching for sound investments, and to that end here's a sample of four relievers who've caught my eye as potential second-half assets in formats that value bullpen arms for one reason or another.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Detroit Tigers

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June 30, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Dynasty Prospects: A Few of My Favorites

3

Wilson Karaman

Wilson recomments targeting these young'uns in midseason dynasty drafts and trades.

We’ve reached that point in the season where the minor leagues start to play their all-star games, and the first-half performers start migrating to their next respective levels, and the recent crop of draft picks starts to matriculate into short-season play, and the world is sunny and beautiful for prospect hounds. I play in a couple dynasty leagues that have mid-season prospect drafts, and I’ve always enjoyed the format. On one hand, it tends to encourage further prospect trading, as managers get faster and looser with their farmhands knowing they can replenish the coffers with recent draftees and J2 signees in short order. And on the other, there tends to be an opportunity to grab some helium guys that can get lost in the shuffle of the race to snag the newest first-rounders. So with that as my backdrop, here’s a list of some personal favorites to either make a play for in trade over the next couple weeks or add to your target list for an upcoming prospect draft.

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