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03-12

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4

Fantasy Beat: Alex Cobb's Rising Auction Value
by
Jason Collette

02-26

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6

Fantasy Beat: Budget Allocations and Pitching-Staff Outcomes
by
Jason Collette

02-19

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19

Fantasy Beat: Budget Allocation in Expert Auctions
by
Jason Collette

02-13

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12

Fantasy Beat: The Closer Matrix
by
Jason Collette

02-06

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2

Fantasy Beat: Comparing Mock-Draft Data
by
Jason Collette

01-29

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7

Fantasy Beat: Hidden Fantasy Value
by
Jason Collette

01-15

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6

Fantasy Beat: Cano's Southpaw Struggles
by
Jason Collette

01-09

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5

Fantasy Beat: Esmil Rogers, Fantasy Sleeper
by
Jason Collette

01-02

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17

Fantasy Beat: Defense, BABIP, and James Shields
by
Jason Collette

12-14

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13

Fantasy Beat: Jeremy Hellickson and Defying Regression
by
Jason Collette

09-17

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10

Fantasy Beat: Scherzer's Resurgent Second-Half
by
Jason Collette

08-28

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6

Fantasy Beat: Putting Matt Moore Under the Microscope
by
Paul Sporer

08-27

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0

Fantasy Beat: Fantasy Perspective on the Big Trade
by
Jason Collette

08-21

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9

Fantasy Beat: Examing the Increasing Strikeout Trend
by
Jason Collette

08-08

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2

Fantasy Beat: Chris Carter's Mechanical Remedy
by
Jason Collette

07-24

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7

Fantasy Beat: Lester's Losses
by
Jason Collette

07-16

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2

Fantasy Beat: Scherzer's Unique Season
by
Jason Collette

07-10

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2

Fantasy Beat: Shields' Plummeting Groundball Rate
by
Jason Collette

07-05

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2

Fantasy Beat: Is Elliot Johnson for Real?
by
Jason Collette

06-27

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2

Fantasy Beat: Henderson Alvarez's Nightmare Season
by
Jason Collette

06-19

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24

Fantasy Beat: The Magnificence of R.A. Dickey
by
Jason Collette

06-11

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1

Fantasy Beat: Trumbo, the New Pujols?
by
Jason Collette

06-05

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8

Fantasy Beat: Carlos Zambrano's Resurgence
by
Jason Collette

05-22

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5

Fantasy Beat: Examining Felipe Paulino
by
Jason Collette

05-15

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7

Fantasy Beat: Orange Crush(ers)
by
Jason Collette

05-08

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3

Fantasy Beat: Moore's Mess
by
Jason Collette

05-04

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2

Fantasy Beat: Introducing the New Fantasy Podcast
by
Jason Collette

05-01

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0

Fantasy Beat: September Surges, April Struggles
by
Jason Collette

04-23

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1

Fantasy Beat: Humber's Change in Process
by
Jason Collette

04-20

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4

Fantasy Beat: Fantasy Chat Accountability
by
Jason Collette

04-17

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1

Fantasy Beat: The Transformation of Aroldis Chapman
by
Jason Collette

04-13

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10

Fantasy Beat: Can Dee Gordon Steal 80 Bases?
by
Jason Collette

04-10

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11

Fantasy Beat: 9 Small Sample-Based Bold Predictions
by
Jason Collette

04-06

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3

Fantasy Beat: The Closer Injuries Start Early
by
Jason Collette

04-02

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1

Fantasy Beat: Comparing CBS, LABR, and Tout NL Prices
by
Jason Collette

03-30

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12

Fantasy Beat: Comparing CBS, LABR, and Tout AL Prices
by
Jason Collette

03-30

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9

Fantasy Beat: BP Preseason Fantasy Baseball Awards
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-27

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0

Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars and LABR AL Drafts
by
Jason Collette

03-19

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13

Fantasy Beat: The Impact of BABIP, LOB%, and Luck
by
Jason Collette

03-14

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22

Fantasy Beat: The Closer Matrix
by
Jason Collette

03-09

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7

Fantasy Beat: The Case for B.J. Upton
by
Jason Collette

03-05

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11

Fantasy Beat: LABR Draft Fallout
by
Jason Collette

02-27

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14

Fantasy Beat: The NL's Shallow First Base Pool
by
Jason Collette

02-24

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3

Fantasy Beat: Henderson Alvarez: Fantasy Sleeper?
by
Jason Collette

02-17

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26

Fantasy Beat: Expert Mocks vs. ADP
by
Jason Collette

02-13

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0

Fantasy Beat: Nick Hundley, Potential Sleeper
by
Jason Collette

02-10

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4

Fantasy Beat: The Unsexy, Underrated Gavin Floyd
by
Jason Collette

02-08

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13

Fantasy Beat: Ruminations on My LABR Invitation
by
Jason Collette

02-03

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5

Fantasy Beat: Injury Rebound Bargains
by
Jason Collette

01-30

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3

Fantasy Beat: Using Secondary Average to Evaluate Fantasy Players
by
Jason Collette

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 30, 2012 3:00 am

Fantasy Beat: BP Preseason Fantasy Baseball Awards

9

Baseball Prospectus

The BP Fantasy Crew gives their opinions on sleepers, overrated players, and more

This week we assembled the Baseball Prospectus fantasy crew to gather their ballots for the BP Preseason Fantasy Baseball Awards.  Each writer was asked to give his opinion on which players were in for good seasons, bad seasons, and surprising seasons.  We'd happy to hear your take in the comments.

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A comparison of Jason's Tout Wars AL and LABR AL teams

How does one conduct an auction after tipping their hand just three weeks prior? That was the main challenge I was facing in heading up to New York City for my sixth run at a Tout Wars title this past weekend. After all, just three weeks ago, I executed a plan for a very similar LABR AL league in Arizona and explained why I did what I did. It is bad enough that the room bids up every Rays player on me, but to then know the other guys that I favor put me at a double disadvantage this weekend.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 19, 2012 11:37 am

Fantasy Beat: The Impact of BABIP, LOB%, and Luck

13

Jason Collette

A look at which pitchers were lucky as a result of their BABIP and LOB%, which were unlucky, and which may have a chance of repeating what looks like a lucky/unlucky 2011

Last season, one of my favorite baseball reads that became useful fantasy knowledge was this piece by Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts.  What he laid out is something that I’ve recommended and used in previous years as a quick and dirty way to look for potential targets at the end of drafts. If you believe in simple regression to the mean, it makes sense to target pitchers that were well below their personal and/or league average, since logic dictates they should do better the following season. As Lederer put it:

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 14, 2012 3:00 am

Fantasy Beat: The Closer Matrix

22

Jason Collette

A look at the game's closers entering 2012

New Year’s Resolutions, diet plans, and closers all share one thing in common: a significant failure rate. Research by Ron Shandler of BasebalHQ.com shows that in recent history, the lowest failure rate of closers in a fantasy baseball season happened in 1999 when just 22 percent of drafted closers lost their job in a season. Since 1999, that rate has been anywhere from 22 percent to 59 percent. In other words, closers tease fantasy owners more than the cute girl in middle school who passes love notes requesting a check box to be filled in.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 9, 2012 12:45 pm

Fantasy Beat: The Case for B.J. Upton

7

Jason Collette

Despite high prices in expert leagues, B.J. Upton may well be worth it

To have owned B.J. Upton in fantasy baseball is to have both loved him and loathed him. Consistency has never been a strong suit for Upton as both his career statistics and monthly statistics have taken fantasy owner on a wild roller-coaster ride since the start of the 2007 season.

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 5, 2012 11:34 am

Fantasy Beat: LABR Draft Fallout

11

Jason Collette

How well did Jason fare in executing his plan for the LABR draft in Arizona?

If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Any of us who have been to any kind of motivational speaking course or business training have heard that statement enough to roll our eyes when we see or hear it again. It is cliché, but it is still the first rule of any draft or auction.

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 27, 2012 10:39 am

Fantasy Beat: The NL's Shallow First Base Pool

14

Jason Collette

A look at how the shallow the pool of National League first basemen has become and how to navigate those tricky NL-only waters in 2012

To say that the first base pool in NL-only leagues is thin these days would be a rather massive understatement.  Essentially, the league traded Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder and got only Michael Cuddyer and Adam Kennedy back, while also losing Ryan Howard for an undetermined part of the season due to his playoff-ending ankle injury. The offseason shuffling has made Joey Votto the best player at the position in the National League by a significant margin, on top of the honor of already being one of the three best fantasy options for National League players overall.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 24, 2012 10:58 am

Fantasy Beat: Henderson Alvarez: Fantasy Sleeper?

3

Jason Collette

A look at whether Henderson Alvarez could be a sleeper in deep fantasy leagues this year

The other day, I was asked for a late-round sleeper in AL-only leagues, and I replied with Henderson Alvarez. Sure, he’s slight of build and barely old enough to drink, but color me interested despite what PECOTA has to say about him.

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 17, 2012 11:28 am

Fantasy Beat: Expert Mocks vs. ADP

26

Jason Collette

A look at how the MLB.com Fantasy411 mock drafters strayed from ADP values and what that means

It started with Matt Kemp and ended with Chase Headley, but the regular phase of the Industry Mock Draft sponsored by our friends over at MLB.com’s Fantasy411 crew is finally over. It took 13 teams, 299 players, and what felt like 29 weeks, but the draft is completed.  While anyone can go to MockDraftCentral.com and pull up the most recent ADP reports that show aggregated results for nearly 800 mixed drafts, the expert drafts have appeal because, as one of my friends put it, “Experts don’t follow trends, they set them.”

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 13, 2012 11:34 am

Fantasy Beat: Nick Hundley, Potential Sleeper

0

Jason Collette

Why Padres catcher Nick Hundley could be an underrated fantasy option

Last week, a few of you were upset that I outed Gavin Floyd as an overlooked fantasy sleeper because you hoped he would slide into the last few rounds of your draft, as he did for me in the Fantasy 411 Industry Mock Draft. This week, I reenter the lion’s den to present a player that I grabbed at pick 301 of the same draft, 71 picks below his current ADP. As big of a gap as that was, I was still 18 picks ahead of this player’s lowest draft spot over the past two weeks.

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 10, 2012 11:02 am

Fantasy Beat: The Unsexy, Underrated Gavin Floyd

4

Jason Collette

A look at how drafters are treating Gavin Floyd and why he might be a fantasy bargain this season

Yesterday, I set a new low in the MLB.com Fantasy411 Industry mock draft when I drafted Gavin Floyd 57 spots below his current ADP. Floyd has a current ADP of 229, which ranks him 85th among all starting pitchers for the 803 mixed league drafts run over the past two weeks.  Floyd is currently being drafted behind the likes of Vance Worley, Edwin Jackson, Matt Harrison, R.A. Dickey, and Ivan Nova while coming in ahead of Ted Lilly, Mike Minor, Drew Pomeranz, Brett Anderson, and Mark Buehrle.  

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February 8, 2012 11:04 pm

Fantasy Beat: Ruminations on My LABR Invitation

13

Jason Collette

A look at early drafts, playing in multiple leagues, and employing various strategies in fantasy leagues

Cruise ships are wonderful getaways from the stresses of life: three or more days out at sea, away from it all—and that includes data coverage, unless you are willing to pay a per-minute fee that is on the level of what a beer costs at most ballparks these days. Couple that with spending time with 13 other guys as we honor the last days of our good friend’s bachelorhood, and the last 96 hours have been quite a blur of inaccessibility, little sleep, and lapses in memory, but today I rejoin the daily grind.

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