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03-12

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4

Fantasy Beat: Alex Cobb's Rising Auction Value
by
Jason Collette

02-26

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6

Fantasy Beat: Budget Allocations and Pitching-Staff Outcomes
by
Jason Collette

02-19

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19

Fantasy Beat: Budget Allocation in Expert Auctions
by
Jason Collette

02-13

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12

Fantasy Beat: The Closer Matrix
by
Jason Collette

02-06

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2

Fantasy Beat: Comparing Mock-Draft Data
by
Jason Collette

01-29

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7

Fantasy Beat: Hidden Fantasy Value
by
Jason Collette

01-15

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6

Fantasy Beat: Cano's Southpaw Struggles
by
Jason Collette

01-09

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5

Fantasy Beat: Esmil Rogers, Fantasy Sleeper
by
Jason Collette

01-02

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17

Fantasy Beat: Defense, BABIP, and James Shields
by
Jason Collette

12-14

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13

Fantasy Beat: Jeremy Hellickson and Defying Regression
by
Jason Collette

09-17

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10

Fantasy Beat: Scherzer's Resurgent Second-Half
by
Jason Collette

08-28

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6

Fantasy Beat: Putting Matt Moore Under the Microscope
by
Paul Sporer

08-27

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0

Fantasy Beat: Fantasy Perspective on the Big Trade
by
Jason Collette

08-21

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9

Fantasy Beat: Examing the Increasing Strikeout Trend
by
Jason Collette

08-08

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2

Fantasy Beat: Chris Carter's Mechanical Remedy
by
Jason Collette

07-24

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7

Fantasy Beat: Lester's Losses
by
Jason Collette

07-16

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2

Fantasy Beat: Scherzer's Unique Season
by
Jason Collette

07-10

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2

Fantasy Beat: Shields' Plummeting Groundball Rate
by
Jason Collette

07-05

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2

Fantasy Beat: Is Elliot Johnson for Real?
by
Jason Collette

06-27

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2

Fantasy Beat: Henderson Alvarez's Nightmare Season
by
Jason Collette

06-19

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24

Fantasy Beat: The Magnificence of R.A. Dickey
by
Jason Collette

06-11

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1

Fantasy Beat: Trumbo, the New Pujols?
by
Jason Collette

06-05

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8

Fantasy Beat: Carlos Zambrano's Resurgence
by
Jason Collette

05-22

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5

Fantasy Beat: Examining Felipe Paulino
by
Jason Collette

05-15

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7

Fantasy Beat: Orange Crush(ers)
by
Jason Collette

05-08

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3

Fantasy Beat: Moore's Mess
by
Jason Collette

05-04

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2

Fantasy Beat: Introducing the New Fantasy Podcast
by
Jason Collette

05-01

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0

Fantasy Beat: September Surges, April Struggles
by
Jason Collette

04-23

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1

Fantasy Beat: Humber's Change in Process
by
Jason Collette

04-20

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4

Fantasy Beat: Fantasy Chat Accountability
by
Jason Collette

04-17

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1

Fantasy Beat: The Transformation of Aroldis Chapman
by
Jason Collette

04-13

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10

Fantasy Beat: Can Dee Gordon Steal 80 Bases?
by
Jason Collette

04-10

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11

Fantasy Beat: 9 Small Sample-Based Bold Predictions
by
Jason Collette

04-06

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3

Fantasy Beat: The Closer Injuries Start Early
by
Jason Collette

04-02

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1

Fantasy Beat: Comparing CBS, LABR, and Tout NL Prices
by
Jason Collette

03-30

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12

Fantasy Beat: Comparing CBS, LABR, and Tout AL Prices
by
Jason Collette

03-30

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9

Fantasy Beat: BP Preseason Fantasy Baseball Awards
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-27

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0

Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars and LABR AL Drafts
by
Jason Collette

03-19

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13

Fantasy Beat: The Impact of BABIP, LOB%, and Luck
by
Jason Collette

03-14

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22

Fantasy Beat: The Closer Matrix
by
Jason Collette

03-09

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7

Fantasy Beat: The Case for B.J. Upton
by
Jason Collette

03-05

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11

Fantasy Beat: LABR Draft Fallout
by
Jason Collette

02-27

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14

Fantasy Beat: The NL's Shallow First Base Pool
by
Jason Collette

02-24

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3

Fantasy Beat: Henderson Alvarez: Fantasy Sleeper?
by
Jason Collette

02-17

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26

Fantasy Beat: Expert Mocks vs. ADP
by
Jason Collette

02-13

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0

Fantasy Beat: Nick Hundley, Potential Sleeper
by
Jason Collette

02-10

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4

Fantasy Beat: The Unsexy, Underrated Gavin Floyd
by
Jason Collette

02-08

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13

Fantasy Beat: Ruminations on My LABR Invitation
by
Jason Collette

02-03

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5

Fantasy Beat: Injury Rebound Bargains
by
Jason Collette

01-30

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3

Fantasy Beat: Using Secondary Average to Evaluate Fantasy Players
by
Jason Collette

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 12, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Alex Cobb's Rising Auction Value

4

Jason Collette

The Rays righty has become a popular breakout candidate, but there are reasons to temper short-term expectations.

Rays righty Alex Cobb has been collecting a bit of fantasy helium in recent weeks. He went for $9 and $11 in recent expert league auctions, and some sites are suggesting that compare him to veterans like Hiroki Kuroda. Moreover, three members of the ESPN fantasy analyst panel recently pegged Cobb as their fantasy starting-pitcher sleeper.  

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February 26, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Budget Allocations and Pitching-Staff Outcomes

6

Jason Collette

Jason examines how the proportion of your budget that you devote to pitching impacts the fantasy staff that you can assemble.

Last week, we reviewed how the experts split their money in the LABR and ToutWars auctions in 2012. While the winners each spent at least 30 percent of their budget on pitching, other teams that spent even more did much worse while some who spent less nearly won the league.

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February 19, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Budget Allocation in Expert Auctions

19

Jason Collette

By popular demand, Jason examines how the experts chose to spend their money in last year's auctions, and the results they attained.

Paul Sporer and I have a special email address, fantasyhour@baseballprospectus.com, through which listeners send us emails that they would like us to either respond to privately or address on the weekly Towers of Power Fantasy Hour (or 2) podcast. That inbox was very busy when we first opened it in mid-2012, but business tapered off to a trickle as the baseball season ended and was nearly extinct through the winter holidays. Once the calendar flipped to 2013, people re-discovered the mailbox, and the two of us were flooded with trade and keeper advice requests. Recently, we’ve received several inquiries from people that are starting up auction leagues and wondering how to best allocate their fantasy dollars at the bidding table.

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February 13, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: The Closer Matrix

12

Jason Collette

Jason examines the indicators that can save you from the volatility of fantasy closers.

One of the first pieces I wrote for Baseball Prospectus outlined my strategy for identifying closers, and the article was so well received that I repeated it with a couple of tweaks last season. After I read the comments from one user who utilized the strategy and won his league’s saves category, it was a given that the piece would come back again in 2013. Some of the pitcher notes I made in the 2012 closer matrix included:

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February 6, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Comparing Mock-Draft Data

2

Jason Collette

NFBC mock drafts appear to paint a more realistic picture than those at Mock Draft Central.

On the most recent episode of the Towers of Power Fantasy Hour (or 2), Paul Sporer and I had the opportunity to interview Greg Ambrosius of STATS LLC. Ambrosius runs their National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) events, which feature the all-stars of high-stakes fantasy baseball. While the industry may not be as lucrative as the World Series of Poker, NFBC’s top players have made a rather nice living though the competition. The most famous of the players may be Lindy Hinkleman, a pig farmer from rural Idaho who was featured in a USA Today article last season. A few years ago, he pulled off an improbable sweep of both the live and online events, and earned a check for $241,500 from NFBC.

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January 29, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Hidden Fantasy Value

7

Jason Collette

Think all the good players are gone by the end of your draft? Jason looks at how many valuable players go undrated, even in expert leagues.

There is not an official set of commandments for fantasy players to follow when participating in an auction. If there were, it is almost certain that “thou shalt not leave any dollars on the table” would be one of them. The concept is simple: you have X fantasy dollars to spend in an auction, and it is your task to spend every last one of those dollars to fill your starting roster.

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January 15, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Cano's Southpaw Struggles

6

Jason Collette

Should fantasy owners be worried about the struggles of the game's top second baseman against left-handed pitching?

Robinson Cano had a rather amazing 2012 season. In terms of his WARP, his 6.4 score was the best of his career. In fantasy dollars, it was his third consecutive season of earning $30 or more in AL-only leagues, further cementing his status as a first round pick in either AL-only or mixed-league formats.

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January 9, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Esmil Rogers, Fantasy Sleeper

5

Jason Collette

A look at how former prospect Esmil Rogers has begun to get his career back on track

When a pitcher throws in the mid-to-upper 90s, teams tend to give that player every chance to succeed. In the case of Esmil Rogers, the Rockies gave him 184 2/3 innings before deciding it was better to accept cash from the Cleveland Indians for the services of the out-of-options flamethrower.  The issue for Rogers in Colorado tended to be his inability to find the strike zone on a consistent basis. He had a 20 percent strikeout rate and just an 8 percent walk rate in 2010 but then went 16 and 12 in 2011 and 22 and 14 in 2012 before the Rockies pulled the plug on the live-armed hurler in early June. 

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January 2, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Defense, BABIP, and James Shields

17

Jason Collette

A look at the relationship between defensive quality and pitcher BABIP, particularly as it relates to James Shields and his unfortunate team change.

One of my favorite things to do with baseball statistics is to pick two of them and see what kind of relationship they have.  Many pitchers have changed locations this off-season and will have to get accustomed to the new team defense behind them. Some have made the move to strong defensive teams while others have moved into situations that are a step down from what they have been accustomed to having around them.

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December 14, 2012 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Jeremy Hellickson and Defying Regression

13

Jason Collette

A look at Jeremy Hellickson's mysterious ERA/FIP discrepancy.

Ryan Franklin was a starting pitcher for just three full seasons in the major leagues. In 2002, he worked in a swing role for the Seattle Mariners. In 2003, he surprised many by posting a 3.57 ERA during a season in which he struck out just 99 hitters and walked 61 more over 212 innings pitched while allowing 34 home runs. His FIP that season was a staggering 5.24, and that 1.67 run difference is the largest difference for any starting pitcher with at least 150 innings of work since the 2000 season.

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September 17, 2012 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Scherzer's Resurgent Second-Half

10

Jason Collette

A look at Max Scherzer's historic pace and how he may be pitching himself into Cy Young discussions.

Nearly two months ago to the day, I wrote an article about Max Scherzer’s rather unique season. At that point, he was striking out 11.0 per nine innings and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.6. Despite that, his 4.84 ERA and mere eight wins were driving fantasy owners crazy.

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August 28, 2012 5:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Putting Matt Moore Under the Microscope

6

Paul Sporer

A look at Matt Moore's underwhelming season and where his future value lies.

I can’t remember the last time a rookie starting pitcher entered the season with as much (or more) hype than Matt Moore this past spring. Even back in 2010, it was clear that Stephen Strasburg was going to start the season in the minors, so paying a premium for him didn’t make sense. Moore slow-roasted his way through the minors, as Rays prospects are wont to do, culminating with last year’s breakout season. He spent two-thirds of his season at Double-A (102 innings) and another third at Triple-A (53 innings), posting a ridiculous 1.92 ERA (powered by a 1.37 mark in nine Triple-A starts), 0.95 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, and 4.6 K/BB. The only number that could remotely be considered a blemish was his 2.7 BB/9 in the 155 innings. Otherwise, he was flawless.

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